Market Wrap-up
Crystal Ball: The April Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) contracted again with a reading of -0.6% versus estimates of -0.3%. But this data set has been in negative territory for quite awhile despite positive GDP results.
This week was a long one with a lot of ground covered. Interest rates declined on better inflation news. The housing market reports were not so good, the NAHB housing market index the lowest in four months, housing starts and permits also less than estimates and to the lows of December 2022. Weekly jobless claims at 22K were down from 231K the prior week that were the highest this year.
Next Week the calendar is without direct inflation measurements. It is two weeks before the FOMC meeting, Fed officials are likely to have a lot of comments, most of them though will sound the same; too early to think about rate cuts until more concrete evidence inflation is on a path lower. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office released this week shows that inflation may have had less of an impact on households’ bottom lines than months of sticker shock on everything from Big Macs to daycare might suggest. By CBO’s estimate, aggregate income grew more than prices did between 2019 and 2023,” the report states.
Next Week’s calendar: There are no data points on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday treasury will auction $16B of 20 year bonds, weekly MBA mortgage applications, April existing home sales, FOMC minutes from the May 1st meeting. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May S%P global services and manufacturing indexes, April new home sales. Friday April durable goods orders, May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (consumer sentiment is on a downward path as is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index).
This Week: 10 year note yield this week declined 8 bps, the 2 year note -3 bps. The DJIA MBS 6.0 coupon +20 bps, 6.5 coupon +24 bps. Gold increased $52.00. Crude oil increased$0.64. The dollar index declined 0.85. Bitcoin increased 6,372.
MBS prices today generally flat, but lower than at 9:30 am, the 10 year note yield increased 4 bps. Technical indicators mixed, the 10 found resistance at its 200-day moving average but the Relative Strength index is still positive.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.43% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.45% +5 bp
2 year note: 4.84% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.56% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.36 -11 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.78 -9 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.52 -2 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2243 +$0.0055
Dollar/Yen: 155.64 +0.23 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0877 +$0.0009
Dollar Index: 104.44 -0.02
Gold: $2,421.60 +$36.70
Bitcoin: 67,036 +1867
Crude Oil: $80.02 +$0.79
DJIA: 40,0004.35 +134.97 (media going postal)
NASDAQ: 16,685.97 -12.35
S&P 500: 5303.30 +6.20
SOFR Data 05/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32340, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34801, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38943, INDEX: 1.13789115
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,574.96 | +12.13 | +0.47% | +5.86% | +33.21% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
88,734.63 | +350.08 | +0.40% | +7.70% | +39.70% | 11:15 AM |
WIG30:IND
|
3,228.76 | +12.63 | +0.39% | +7.13% | +35.77% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
EUR-USD
|
1.0869 | 0.0002 | +0.02% | 4:59 PM |
USD-JPY
|
155.6500 | 0.2600 | +0.17% | 4:59 PM |
GBP-USD
|
1.2701 | 0.0031 | +0.24% | 4:59 PM |
AUD-USD
|
0.6693 | 0.0014 | +0.21% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CAD
|
1.3612 | -0.0006 | -0.04% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CHF
|
0.9091 | 0.0029 | +0.32% | 4:5 |
USD-MXN
|
16.6106 | -0.0783 | -0.47% | 4:59 PM | |||||
USD-CZK
|
22.7166 | -0.0224 | -0.10% | 4:59 PM | |||||
USD-SKK
|
27.7167 | -0.0056 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM | |||||
USD-PLN
|
3.9198 | 0.0007 | +0.02% | 4:59 PM | |||||
USD-HUF
|
356.2000 | 0.2000 | +0.06% | 4:59 PM | |||||
USD-RUB
|
90.9955 | 0.1308 | +0.14% | 11:01 AM | |||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
8.000 | -3.516 | -3.466 | -3.336 | 7.875 | -3.198 | -3.148 | -3.018 |
7.875 | -3.188 | -3.138 | -3.008 | 7.750 | -2.811 | -2.761 | -2.631 |
7.750 | -2.772 | -2.722 | -2.592 | 7.625 | -3.216 | -3.166 | -3.036 |
7.625 | -3.163 | -3.113 | -2.983 | 7.500 | -2.894 | -2.844 | -2.714 |
7.500 | -2.852 | -2.802 | -2.672 | 7.375 | -2.541 | -2.491 | -2.361 |
7.375 | -2.467 | -2.417 | -2.287 | 7.250 | -2.140 | -2.090 | -1.960 |
7.250 | -1.993 | -1.943 | -1.813 | 7.125 | -2.379 | -2.329 | -2.199 |
7.125 | -2.223 | -2.173 | -2.043 | 6.999 | -2.074 | -2.024 | -1.894 |
6.999 | -1.853 | -1.803 | -1.673 | 6.875 | -1.636 | -1.586 | -1.456 |
6.875 | -1.389 | -1.339 | -1.209 | 6.750 | -1.160 | -1.110 | -0.980 |
6.750 | -0.828 | -0.778 | -0.648 | 6.625 | -1.590 | -1.540 | -1.410 |
6.625 | -1.108 | -1.058 | -0.928 | 6.500 | -1.208 | -1.158 | -1.028 |
6.500 | -0.684 | -0.634 | -0.504 | 6.375 | -0.732 | -0.682 | -0.552 |
6.375 | -0.092 | -0.042 | 0.088 | 6.250 | -0.210 | -0.160 | -0.030 |
6.250 | 0.570 | 0.620 | 0.750 | 6.125 | -0.010 | 0.040 | 0.170 |
6.125 | 0.492 | 0.542 | 0.672 | 5.999 | 0.397 | 0.447 | 0.577 |
5.999 | 1.059 | 1.109 | 1.239 | 5.875 | 0.925 | 0.975 | 1.105 |
5.875 | 1.765 | 1.815 | 1.945 | 5.750 | 1.498 | 1.548 | 1.678 |
5.750 | 2.526 | 2.576 | 2.706 | 5.625 | 2.125 | 2.175 | 2.305 |
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.125 | -2.104 | -2.054 | -1.924 | 7.000 | -2.512 | -2.462 | -2.332 |
7.000 | -2.361 | -2.311 | -2.181 | 6.875 | -2.275 | -2.225 | -2.095 |
6.875 | -2.110 | -2.060 | -1.930 | 6.750 | -1.904 | -1.854 | -1.724 |
6.750 | -1.735 | -1.685 | -1.555 | 6.625 | -1.495 | -1.445 | -1.315 |
6.625 | -1.326 | -1.276 | -1.146 | 6.500 | -2.111 | -2.061 | -1.931 |
6.500 | -1.838 | -1.788 | -1.658 | 6.375 | -1.845 | -1.795 | -1.665 |
6.375 | -1.555 | -1.505 | -1.375 | 6.250 | -1.442 | -1.392 | -1.262 |
6.250 | -1.148 | -1.098 | -0.968 | 6.125 | -1.004 | -0.954 | -0.824 |
6.125 | -0.710 | -0.660 | -0.530 | 6.000 | -1.371 | -1.321 | -1.191 |
6.000 | -0.974 | -0.924 | -0.794 | 5.875 | -1.051 | -1.001 | -0.871 |
5.875 | -0.637 | -0.587 | -0.457 | 5.750 | -0.625 | -0.575 | -0.445 |
5.750 | -0.206 | -0.156 | -0.026 | 5.625 | -0.153 | -0.103 | 0.027 |
5.625 | 0.266 | 0.316 | 0.446 | 5.500 | -0.320 | -0.270 | -0.140 |
5.500 | 0.170 | 0.220 | 0.350 | 5.375 | 0.036 | 0.086 | 0.216 |
5.375 | 0.543 | 0.593 | 0.723 | 5.250 | 0.492 | 0.542 | 0.672 |
5.250 | 1.005 | 1.055 | 1.185 | 5.125 | 0.985 | 1.035 | 1.165 |
5.125 | 1.498 | 1.548 | 1.678 | 5.000 | 1.105 | 1.155 | 1.285 |
5.000 | 1.687 | 1.737 | 1.867 | 4.875 | 1.504 | 1.554 | 1.684 |
4.875 | 2.105 | 2.155 | 2.285 | 4.750 | 1.995 | 2.045 | 2.175 |
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Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | -0.40% | 2.11% | 6.96% | 29.44% | 38.84% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |