Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
June Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were higher than expected, 206K versus estimates of 190K.
May NFP were revised lower from 272K down to 218K.
April NFP were revised lower from 165K down to 108K.
The rolling 3 month average is now 177K.
Wages:
The Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 10 cents to $35.00 per hour.
The MOM change in Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.
The YOY change in Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.9% versus estimates of 3.9% but is lower than May’s level of 4.1%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate increased to 4.1% versus estimates of 4.0%, it is the second straight month of an increase in this data point.
The U6 Underemployment Rate remained at 7.4%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%.
More jobs than forecast in June, but prior months revised lower. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. Average hourly earnings month/month declined an ear/year declined from May. The labor participation rate edged higher. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 483,000 to 5.2 million in June. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
The report great news and for the moment increases the odds the Fed will cut rates later this year. The betting on cuts swings with each key data point as you know. The downward revisions in previous months for jobs is very promising, that further downward revisions are likely when the August employment report is released. Next up comes next Thursday and Friday when June CPI and PPI will hit.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday May consumer credit. Tuesday June NFIB small business optimism index, $58B 3 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, $39B 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims , early estimates +236K, June CPI, $22B 30 year bond auction, June Treasury budget. Friday June PPI, U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 12 bps, the 2 year note -15 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increased 55 bps, the 6.5 coupon +29 bp. The DJIA +257, NASDQ +620, S&P +107. Crude oil increased $1.73, gold this week +$65.00. The dollar index -0.05. Bitcoin -3,803.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.28% -8 bp
5 year note: 4.23% -10 bp
2 year note: 4.61% -12 bp
30 year bond: 4.47% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.66 +23 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.14 +14 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.79 +18 bp (+14 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2684 +$0.0006
Dollar/Yen: 160.73 -0.55 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0842 +$0.0030
Dollar Index: 104.86 -0.27
Gold: $2,398.50 +$29.10
Bitcoin: 56,592 -1661
Crude Oil: $83.10 -$0.78
DJIA: 39,375.87 +67.87
NASDAQ: 18,352.76 +164.46
S&P 500: 5567.19 +30.17
SOFR Data 07/05: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33774, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35409, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38676, INDEX: 1.14616735
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,518.89 | -30.22 | -1.19% | +3.71% | +23.74% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
87,297.00 | -875.42 | -0.99% | +2.29% | +31.35% | 11:15 AM |
WIG30:IND
|
3,148.03 | -35.71 | -1.12% | +2.15% | +27.00% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
EUR-USD
|
1.0840 | 0.0028 | +0.26% | 4:59 PM |
USD-JPY
|
160.7500 | -0.5300 | -0.33% | 4:59 PM |
GBP-USD
|
1.2815 | 0.0055 | +0.43% | 4:59 PM |
AUD-USD
|
0.6749 | 0.0023 | +0.34% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CAD
|
1.3640 | 0.0026 | +0.19% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CHF
|
0.8957 | -0.0044 | -0.49% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CZK
|
23.1792 | -0.0610 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
USD-SKK
|
27.7911 | -0.0716 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
USD-PLN
|
3.9527 | -0.0082 | -0.21% | 4:59 PM |
USD-HUF
|
362.0900 | -1.4400 | -0.40% | 4:59 PM |
USD-RUB
|
87.9239 | -1.0761 | -1.21% | 11:24 A |
USD-MXN
|
18.1061 | 0.0022 | +0.01% | 4:59 PM |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.11% | 1.58% | 7.89% | 30.54% | 40.19% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||||||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||||||
8.000 | -3.675 | -3.625 | -3.495 | 7.875 | -3.251 | -3.201 | -3.071 | ||||||||
7.875 | -3.337 | -3.287 | -3.157 | 7.750 | -2.873 | -2.823 | -2.693 | ||||||||
7.750 | -2.928 | -2.878 | -2.748 | 7.625 | -3.252 | -3.202 | -3.072 | ||||||||
7.625 | -3.256 | -3.206 | -3.076 | 7.500 | -2.977 | -2.927 | -2.797 | ||||||||
7.500 | -2.988 | -2.938 | -2.808 | 7.375 | -2.617 | -2.567 | -2.437 | ||||||||
7.375 | -2.595 | -2.545 | -2.415 | 7.250 | -2.226 | -2.176 | -2.046 | ||||||||
7.250 | -2.133 | -2.083 | -1.953 | 7.125 | -2.340 | -2.290 | -2.160 | ||||||||
7.125 | -2.232 | -2.182 | -2.052 | 6.999 | -2.043 | -1.993 | -1.863 | ||||||||
6.999 | -1.915 | -1.865 | -1.735 | 6.875 | -1.621 | -1.571 | -1.441 | ||||||||
6.875 | -1.460 | -1.410 | -1.280 | 6.750 | -1.190 | -1.140 | -1.010 | ||||||||
6.750 | -0.912 | -0.862 | -0.732 | 6.625 | -1.621 | -1.571 | -1.441 | ||||||||
6.625 | -1.098 | -1.048 | -0.918 | 6.500 | -1.266 | -1.216 | -1.086 | ||||||||
6.500 | -0.744 | -0.694 | -0.564 | 6.375 | -0.804 | -0.754 | -0.624 | ||||||||
6.375 | -0.193 | -0.143 | -0.013 | 6.250 | -0.327 | -0.277 | -0.147 | ||||||||
6.250 | 0.449 | 0.499 | 0.629 | 6.125 | -0.102 | -0.052 | 0.078 | ||||||||
6.125 | 0.464 | 0.514 | 0.644 | 5.999 | 0.270 | 0.320 | 0.450 | ||||||||
5.999 | 0.965 | 1.015 | 1.145 | 5.875 | 0.752 | 0.802 | 0.932 | ||||||||
5.875 | 1.610 | 1.660 | 1.790 | 5.750 | 1.316 | 1.366 | 1.496 | ||||||||
5.750 | 2.380 | 2.430 | 2.560 | 5.625 | 1.940 | 1.990 | 2.120 | ||||||||
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||||||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||||||
7.125 | -2.313 | -2.263 | -2.133 | 6.875 | -2.458 | -2.408 | -2.278 | ||||||||
7.000 | -2.482 | -2.432 | -2.302 | 6.750 | -2.091 | -2.041 | -1.911 | ||||||||
6.875 | -2.293 | -2.243 | -2.113 | 6.625 | -1.682 | -1.632 | -1.502 | ||||||||
6.750 | -1.922 | -1.872 | -1.742 | 6.500 | -2.137 | -2.087 | -1.957 | ||||||||
6.625 | -1.513 | -1.463 | -1.333 | 6.375 | -1.917 | -1.867 | -1.737 | ||||||||
6.500 | -1.829 | -1.779 | -1.649 | 6.250 | -1.523 | -1.473 | -1.343 | ||||||||
6.375 | -1.596 | -1.546 | -1.416 | 6.125 | -1.086 | -1.036 | -0.906 | ||||||||
6.250 | -1.198 | -1.148 | -1.018 | 6.000 | -1.348 | -1.298 | -1.168 | ||||||||
6.125 | -0.761 | -0.711 | -0.581 | 5.875 | -1.070 | -1.020 | -0.890 | ||||||||
6.000 | -0.948 | -0.898 | -0.768 | 5.750 | -0.657 | -0.607 | -0.477 | ||||||||
5.875 | -0.655 | -0.605 | -0.475 | 5.625 | -0.187 | -0.137 | -0.007 | ||||||||
5.750 | -0.238 | -0.188 | -0.058 | 5.500 | -0.356 | -0.306 | -0.176 | ||||||||
5.625 | 0.232 | 0.282 | 0.412 | 5.375 | -0.033 | 0.017 | 0.147 | ||||||||
5.500 | 0.137 | 0.187 | 0.317 | 5.250 | 0.412 | 0.462 | 0.592 | ||||||||
5.375 | 0.476 | 0.526 | 0.656 | 5.125 | 0.899 | 0.949 | 1.079 | ||||||||
5.250 | 0.925 | 0.975 | 1.105 | 5.000 | 1.081 | 1.131 | 1.261 | ||||||||
5.125 | 1.412 | 1.462 | 1.592 | 4.875 | 1.448 | 1.498 | 1.628 | ||||||||
5.000 | 1.664 | 1.714 | 1.844 | 4.750 | 1.936 | 1.986 | 2.116 | ||||||||
4.875 | 2.049 | 2.099 | 2.229 | 4.625 | 2.453 | 2.503 | 2.633 | ||||||||