Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 July Coupon is down -1 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.
Inflation Nation: The June Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected, up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.1% on a MOM basis. Perhaps more importantly, the prior month was revised from -0.2% up to 0.0% which means that in May we did not have a contraction in inflation as originally reported. YOY, PPI was up 2.6% versus estimates of 2.3%. Core (ex food and energy) PPI was twice as high as expected 0.4% versus estimates of 0.2% and May was revised upward from 0.0% to 0.3%. YOY, it jumped back to a three-handle, up 3.0% versus estimates of 2.6%.
Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was much weaker than expected, dropping from 68.2 down to 66.0.
The 10 year note yield didn’t break key resistance at 4.19/20% today until after interest rate futures markets closed at 3 pm ET, in the cash market the note is ending the session at 4.18%. Yesterday on weak CPI the note fell 8 bps but found resistance at 4.20%, the last time the note traded below 4.20% was in mid-March; last month 4.20% was tested six times before it increased to 4.50%.
Inflation declined yesterday in the consumer price index; Fed officials now talking more positively about a rate cut although when a cut comes it won’t likely push the 10 much lower, where the rate decline will be seen is in the 2 year note. Mary Daly SF Fed and Austin Goolsbee Chicago Fed both commented they were now more tilting toward a rate cut as inflation dipped to an eight-month low. “I think this is what the path to 2% looks like,” Goolsbee told reporters. Daly remarked “With the information we have received today, which includes data on employment, inflation, [gross domestic product] growth and the outlook for the economy, I see it as likely that some policy adjustments will be warranted.” Both comments came yesterday.
This morning June PPI a little stronger than estimates but all of it came from the service sector so it didn’t’ have impact on rates today. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index this morning showed consumers’ outlooks continue to weaken; didn’t matter to the stock indexes though.
Next Week’s calendar. Monday July NY Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday June retail sales, June import and export prices, May business inventories, July NHAB home market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June housing starts and permits, June industrial production and capacity utilization. Thursday weekly jobless claims, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June leading economic indicators.
This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 15 bps, the 2 year note down 15 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +49 bps, the 6.5 coupon +20 bps. The DJIA +724, NASDAQ +45, S&P +48. Gold increased $19.00, crude oil down $0.87, the dollar index declined 0.79, bitcoin increased 1.751.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.18% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.10% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.46% -6 bp
30 year bond: 4.39% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.15 +22 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.34 +19 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.98 +17 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 157.81 -1.03 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0911 +$0.0042
Dollar Index: 104.07 -0.37
Gold: $2,418.30 -$3.60
Bitcoin: 57,843 +457
Crude Oil: $82.23 -$0.39
DJIA: 40,001.36 +247.61
NASDAQ: 18,398.45 +115.04
S&P 500: 5615.37 +30.82
SOFR Data 07/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33808, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35533, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38751, INDEX: 1.14735536
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,566.19 | +18.50 | +0.73% | +5.05% | +21.36% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
88,693.81 | +539.18 | +0.61% | +4.26% | +27.31% | 11:15 AM |
WIG30:IND
|
3,207.43 | +23.06 | +0.72% | +4.39% | +23.55% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
EUR-USD
|
1.0907 | 0.0039 | +0.36% | 4:59 PM |
USD-JPY
|
157.8300 | -1.0100 | -0.64% | 4:59 PM |
GBP-USD
|
1.2988 | 0.0073 | +0.57% | 4:59 PM |
AUD-USD
|
0.6784 | 0.0025 | +0.37% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CAD
|
1.3635 | 0.0003 | +0.02% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CHF
|
0.8944 | -0.0021 | -0.23% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CZK
|
23.2201 | -0.1312 | -0.56% | 4:59 PM |
USD-SKK
|
27.6207 | -0.0992 | -0.36% | 4:59 PM |
USD-PLN
|
3.9002 | -0.0205 | -0.52% | 4:59 PM |
USD-HUF
|
359.3500 | -3.1700 | -0.87% | 4:59 PM |
USD-RUB
|
87.8818 | 0.1721 | +0.20% | 11:04 AM |
USD-MXN
|
17.6189 | -0.1554 | -0.87% | 4:59 PM |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.11% | 1.58% | 7.89% | 30.54% | 40.19% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.875 | -3.513 | -3.463 | -3.333 | 7.625 | -3.513 | -3.463 | -3.333 |
7.750 | -3.117 | -3.067 | -2.937 | 7.500 | -3.244 | -3.194 | -3.064 |
7.625 | -3.435 | -3.385 | -3.255 | 7.375 | -2.896 | -2.846 | -2.716 |
7.500 | -3.170 | -3.120 | -2.990 | 7.250 | -2.504 | -2.454 | -2.324 |
7.375 | -2.811 | -2.761 | -2.631 | 7.125 | -2.729 | -2.679 | -2.549 |
7.250 | -2.372 | -2.322 | -2.192 | 6.999 | -2.464 | -2.414 | -2.284 |
7.125 | -2.543 | -2.493 | -2.363 | 6.875 | -2.058 | -2.008 | -1.878 |
6.999 | -2.224 | -2.174 | -2.044 | 6.750 | -1.621 | -1.571 | -1.441 |
6.875 | -1.812 | -1.762 | -1.632 | 6.625 | -2.203 | -2.153 | -2.023 |
6.750 | -1.296 | -1.246 | -1.116 | 6.500 | -1.871 | -1.821 | -1.691 |
6.625 | -1.577 | -1.527 | -1.397 | 6.375 | -1.422 | -1.372 | -1.242 |
6.500 | -1.208 | -1.158 | -1.028 | 6.250 | -0.933 | -0.883 | -0.753 |
6.375 | -0.715 | -0.665 | -0.535 | 6.125 | -0.847 | -0.797 | -0.667 |
6.250 | -0.128 | -0.078 | 0.052 | 5.999 | -0.491 | -0.441 | -0.311 |
6.125 | -0.227 | -0.177 | -0.047 | 5.875 | 0.016 | 0.066 | 0.196 |
5.999 | 0.263 | 0.313 | 0.443 | 5.750 | 0.551 | 0.601 | 0.731 |
5.875 | 0.909 | 0.959 | 1.089 | 5.625 | 1.170 | 1.220 | 1.350 |
5.750 | 1.623 | 1.673 | 1.803 | 5.500 | 1.570 | 1.620 | 1.750 |
5.625 | 1.902 | 1.952 | 2.082 | 5.375 | 2.092 | 2.142 | 2.272 |
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.000 | -2.612 | -2.562 | -2.432 | 6.875 | -2.589 | -2.539 | -2.409 |
6.875 | -2.423 | -2.373 | -2.243 | 6.750 | -2.247 | -2.197 | -2.067 |
6.750 | -2.078 | -2.028 | -1.898 | 6.625 | -1.848 | -1.798 | -1.668 |
6.625 | -1.679 | -1.629 | -1.499 | 6.500 | -2.412 | -2.362 | -2.232 |
6.500 | -2.104 | -2.054 | -1.924 | 6.375 | -2.185 | -2.135 | -2.005 |
6.375 | -1.864 | -1.814 | -1.684 | 6.250 | -1.798 | -1.748 | -1.618 |
6.250 | -1.473 | -1.423 | -1.293 | 6.125 | -1.378 | -1.328 | -1.198 |
6.125 | -1.053 | -1.003 | -0.873 | 6.000 | -1.723 | -1.673 | -1.543 |
6.000 | -1.324 | -1.274 | -1.144 | 5.875 | -1.444 | -1.394 | -1.264 |
5.875 | -1.030 | -0.980 | -0.850 | 5.750 | -1.038 | -0.988 | -0.858 |
5.750 | -0.619 | -0.569 | -0.439 | 5.625 | -0.579 | -0.529 | -0.399 |
5.625 | -0.160 | -0.110 | 0.020 | 5.500 | -0.727 | -0.677 | -0.547 |
5.500 | -0.235 | -0.185 | -0.055 | 5.375 | -0.398 | -0.348 | -0.218 |
5.375 | 0.110 | 0.160 | 0.290 | 5.250 | 0.034 | 0.084 | 0.214 |
5.250 | 0.547 | 0.597 | 0.727 | 5.125 | 0.503 | 0.553 | 0.683 |
5.125 | 1.016 | 1.066 | 1.196 | 5.000 | 0.644 | 0.694 | 0.824 |
5.000 | 1.227 | 1.277 | 1.407 | 4.875 | 1.000 | 1.050 | 1.180 |
4.875 | 1.601 | 1.651 | 1.781 | 4.750 | 1.470 | 1.520 | 1.650 |
4.750 | 2.076 | 2.126 | 2.256 | 4.625 | 1.975 | 2.025 | 2.155 |