Magazyn Kieszeń (512) 07.20.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 August Coupon is down -15 BPS at 2:45 PM ET.

There were no domestic economic releases today.

The Talking Fed: New York President John Williams said the longer-term trends that led to declines in neutral levels for interest rates before the pandemic still prevail.

 

Interest rates increased today taking the key 10 year note back above the pivot level at 4.20%. MBS prices dropped. There were no economic releases today. The CrowdStrike cybersecurity company outage reeked havoc across the world, even us a miniscule company.

The RNC is over. Overall, it was as expected. WSJ: “More Democratic lawmakers called on President Biden to abandon his re-election bid on Friday—signaling that party officeholders are unlikely to relent in their campaign to replace Biden, even as he and his advisers insisted publicly that he has no plans to withdraw”. In a Friday statement, Biden said he planned to return to the campaign trail next week, where he would criticize former President Donald Trump’s agenda, “while making the case for my own record and the vision that I have for America.”

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday June existing home sales, $69B 2 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, S&P Global manufacturing index (prelim), June new home sales, $70B 5 year note auction Thursday Q2 advance GDP, weekly jobless claims, June durable goods orders, $44B 7 year note auction. Friday is the big day; June PCE prices, University of Michigan final July consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note yield increased 6 bps this week, the 2 year note +6 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon price fell 29 bps. The DJIA this week +287, NASDAQ -671, S&P -110. Gold declined $18.00 this week, the increase in rates removed any bullishness for the moment, (today down $55.00), crude oil -$2.03. The dollar index increased 0.32 while bitcoin made the move of the week, increasing 9,368.

 

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.24% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.17% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.52% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.45% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.86 -11 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.17 -8 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.76 -8 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 157.48 +0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0882 -$0.0015

Dollar Index: 104.39 +0.22

Gold: $2,399.60 -$56.80

Bitcoin: 67,211 +3693

Crude Oil: $80.20 -$2.62

DJIA: 40,287.53 -377.49

NASDAQ: 17,726.94 -144.28

S&P 500: 5505.00 -39.59

SOFR Data 07/19: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34446, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35792, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38872, INDEX: 1.14854779

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,476.38	-20.06	-0.80%	-0.62%	+14.04%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	85,852.44	-560.72	-0.65%	-0.62%	+19.85%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,094.42	-23.46	-0.75%	-0.77%	+15.69%	11:15 A

 

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0882	-0.0015	-0.14%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.4800	0.1100	+0.07%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2914	-0.0030	-0.23%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6685	-0.0021	-0.31%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3730	0.0024	+0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8889	0.0012	+0.14%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN		18.0482	0.0836		+0.47%		4:59 PM
USD-CZK	23.1803			-0.0095		-0.04%		4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.6835			0.0363		+0.13%		4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9387			-0.0003		-0.01%		4:59 PM
USD-HUF	358.9400			0.1900		+0.05%		4:59 PM
USD-RUB	87.8996			-0.5004		-0.57%		1:17 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.89% +0.08%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.32% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.32% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.05% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.58% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.34% +0.04 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/19 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.32% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.05% -0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/18   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.00% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% +0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.02 0.38 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/10

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.38 -0.18   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.38 -0.18 UMBS 6.0 100.85 -0.12 GNMA 5.5 99.72 -0.10 GNMA 6.0 100.67 -0.07 Pricing as of: 7/19 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2384 +0.0368   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.513 +0.038 5 YR Treasury 4.167 +0.047 7 YR Treasury 4.183 +0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.238 +0.037 30 YR Treasury 4.448 +0.029 Pricing as of: 7/19 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.875	-3.394	-3.344	-3.214	7.625	-3.384	-3.334	-3.204
7.750	-3.009	-2.959	-2.829	7.500	-3.107	-3.057	-2.927
7.625	-3.292	-3.242	-3.112	7.375	-2.766	-2.716	-2.586
7.500	-3.020	-2.970	-2.840	7.250	-2.384	-2.334	-2.204
7.375	-2.665	-2.615	-2.485	7.125	-2.520	-2.470	-2.340
7.250	-2.237	-2.187	-2.057	6.999	-2.234	-2.184	-2.054
7.125	-2.310	-2.260	-2.130	6.875	-1.836	-1.786	-1.656
6.999	-1.995	-1.945	-1.815	6.750	-1.413	-1.363	-1.233
6.875	-1.585	-1.535	-1.405	6.625	-1.913	-1.863	-1.733
6.750	-1.073	-1.023	-0.893	6.500	-1.554	-1.504	-1.374
6.625	-1.261	-1.211	-1.081	6.375	-1.112	-1.062	-0.932
6.500	-0.891	-0.841	-0.711	6.250	-0.639	-0.589	-0.459
6.375	-0.396	-0.346	-0.216	6.125	-0.553	-0.503	-0.373
6.250	0.182	0.232	0.362	5.999	-0.201	-0.151	-0.021
6.125	0.088	0.138	0.268	5.875	0.309	0.359	0.489
5.999	0.566	0.616	0.746	5.750	0.842	0.892	1.022
5.875	1.214	1.264	1.394	5.625	1.434	1.484	1.614
5.750	1.927	1.977	2.107	5.500	1.868	1.918	2.048
5.625	2.181	2.231	2.361	5.375	2.371	2.421	2.551

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.875	-2.536	-2.486	-2.356	6.750	-2.362	-2.312	-2.182
6.750	-2.193	-2.143	-2.013	6.625	-1.970	-1.920	-1.790
6.625	-1.801	-1.751	-1.621	6.500	-2.330	-2.280	-2.150
6.500	-2.020	-1.970	-1.840	6.375	-2.100	-2.050	-1.920
6.375	-1.778	-1.728	-1.598	6.250	-1.725	-1.675	-1.545
6.250	-1.400	-1.350	-1.220	6.125	-1.294	-1.244	-1.114
6.125	-0.969	-0.919	-0.789	6.000	-1.687	-1.637	-1.507
6.000	-1.286	-1.236	-1.106	5.875	-1.409	-1.359	-1.229
5.875	-0.993	-0.943	-0.813	5.750	-0.994	-0.944	-0.814
5.750	-0.575	-0.525	-0.395	5.625	-0.544	-0.494	-0.364