Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 August Coupon is up +12 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: June’s Headline PCE MOM matched expectations with a gain of 0.1%. YOY it was up 2.5% versus estimates of 2.5%. The more closely watched Core (ex food and energy) PCE increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.1%. YOY, it was up 2.6% versus estimates of 2.5%.

Incomes and Spending: June Personal Incomes increased by 0.2% which was half of the market expectations calling for 0.4%. Personal Spending matched expectations of 0.3% but May was revised upward from 0.2% to 0.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The final reading on the July UofM Consumer Sentiment Index saw a small upward revision from the preliminary level of 66 to 66.4.

PM commentary delayed. AM commentary below

Headlines this morning, at 8:30 am ET June PCE, month/month expected at +0.1% month/month reported at +0.1%, year/year +2.5% as anticipated and down from +2.6% in May. The core, where the Fed focuses (ex-food and energy) month/month expected at +0.1% increased 0.2% and year/year 2.6% unchanged from May but the estimate was for +2.5%. June personal income estimates month/month 0.4% increased just 0.2% after increasing 0.5% in May; personal spending as expected +0.3% and better than +0.2% in May.

The initial reaction in the bond market pushed the 10 year note down 3 bps to 4.22%; MBS prices +10 bps. Although month/month core was slightly higher than estimates it didn’t increase from May. Markets still looking for the first rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. The income and spending data continues to show the economy is holding well encouraging the Fed to cut and not upset the growing economy. The more sensitive 2 year note to Fed actions declined 0.2%, but picked up momentum as time went on (see below for 10 am levels).

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +267, NASDAQ +136, S&P +32. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.21% -4 bp, 2 year 4.39% -5 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday’s close and +22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday, the 6.5 coupon +5 bps and +7 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index thought to be at 66.0, increased to 66.4. The data is slower than in June as consumers continue to fret about the outlook and the coming election.

Next week the FOMC meeting but not expecting any change in the FF rate until September, in the meantime there are two more PCE inflation releases along with CPI and PPI. There are opinions increasing that the Fed will cut three times before the end of the year, but as we have noted numerous times those outlooks swing with each key data point. Also, next week July employment data.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.19% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.07% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.38% -36 bp

30 year bond: 4.45% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.02 +16 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.23 +5 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.84 +7 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 153.81 -0.13 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0856 +$0.0021

Dollar Index: 104.28 -0.07

Gold: $2,387.00 +$22.63

Bitcoin: 67,912 +2996

Crude Oil: $77.16 -$1.12

DJIA: 40,589.34 +654.27

NASDAQ: 17,357.88 +176.16

S&P 500: 5459.10 +59.88

SOFR Data 07/26: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34982, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36017, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38974, INDEX: 1.14974082

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,407.15	-8.48	-0.35%	-5.28%	+9.95%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	83,712.63	-221.73	-0.26%	-4.71%	+17.27%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,010.88	-9.20	-0.30%	-5.09%	+11.67%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0856	0.0010	+0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	153.7600	-0.1800	-0.12%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2867	0.0016	+0.12%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6548	0.0010	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3836	0.0011	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8836	0.0019	+0.22%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

18.4613

0.0081

+0.04%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.3494	-0.0471	-0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.7500	-0.0271	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9372	-0.0135	-0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	360.5000	-1.4200	-0.39%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	86.0660	1.0550	+1.24%	10:38 AM

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.11%	1.58%	7.89%	30.54%	40.19%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.86% -0.05%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	6.86%	-0.05	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.31%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.32%	-0.06	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.04%	-0.03	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.53%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.34%	-0.06	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/26

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.31% -0.02%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.78%	+0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.07%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/25

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.00%	-0.03	0.60
15 Yr. Fixed	6.63%	+0.07	0.61
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.13%	+0.02	0.38
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/10

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5

99.66 +0.25

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5	99.66	+0.25
UMBS 6.0	101.04	+0.15
GNMA 5.5	100.01	+0.16
GNMA 6.0	100.91	+0.12
Pricing as of: 7/26 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.1929 -0.0503

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.386	-0.043
5 YR Treasury	4.075	-0.056
7 YR Treasury	4.115	-0.056
10 YR Treasury	4.193	-0.050
30 YR Treasury	4.452	-0.031
Pricing as of: 7/26 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.875	-3.591	-3.541	-3.411	7.625	-3.571	-3.521	-3.391
7.750	-3.189	-3.139	-3.009	7.500	-3.294	-3.244	-3.114
7.625	-3.486	-3.436	-3.306	7.375	-2.949	-2.899	-2.769
7.500	-3.217	-3.167	-3.037	7.250	-2.551	-2.501	-2.371
7.375	-2.856	-2.806	-2.676	7.125	-2.744	-2.694	-2.564
7.250	-2.409	-2.359	-2.229	6.999	-2.448	-2.398	-2.268
7.125	-2.547	-2.497	-2.367	6.875	-2.043	-1.993	-1.863
6.999	-2.236	-2.186	-2.056	6.750	-1.625	-1.575	-1.445
6.875	-1.811	-1.761	-1.631	6.625	-2.210	-2.160	-2.030
6.750	-1.293	-1.243	-1.113	6.500	-1.845	-1.795	-1.665
6.625	-1.580	-1.530	-1.400	6.375	-1.402	-1.352	-1.222
6.500	-1.214	-1.164	-1.034	6.250	-0.929	-0.879	-0.749
6.375	-0.717	-0.667	-0.537	6.125	-0.887	-0.837	-0.707
6.250	-0.109	-0.059	0.071	5.999	-0.530	-0.480	-0.350
6.125	-0.252	-0.202	-0.072	5.875	-0.017	0.033	0.163
5.999	0.227	0.277	0.407	5.750	0.515	0.565	0.695
5.875	0.881	0.931	1.061	5.625	1.130	1.180	1.310
5.750	1.600	1.650	1.780	5.500	1.572	1.622	1.752
5.625	1.879	1.929	2.059	5.375	2.089	2.139	2.269

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.875	-2.679	-2.629	-2.499	6.625	-2.101	-2.051	-1.921
6.750	-2.331	-2.281	-2.151	6.500	-2.430	-2.380	-2.250
6.625	-1.932	-1.882	-1.752	6.375	-2.200	-2.150	-2.020
6.500	-2.120	-2.070	-1.940	6.250	-1.821	-1.771	-1.641
6.375	-1.878	-1.828	-1.698	6.125	-1.384	-1.334	-1.204
6.250	-1.496	-1.446	-1.316	6.000	-1.991	-1.941	-1.811
6.125	-1.059	-1.009	-0.879	5.875	-1.713	-1.663	-1.533
6.000	-1.590	-1.540	-1.410	5.750	-1.293	-1.243	-1.113
5.875	-1.297	-1.247	-1.117	5.625	-0.839	-0.789	-0.659
5.750	-0.874	-0.824	-0.694	5.500	-1.142	-1.092	-0.962
5.625	-0.420	-0.370	-0.240	5.375	-0.812	-0.762	-0.632
5.500	-0.648	-0.598	-0.468	5.250	-0.376	-0.326	-0.196
5.375	-0.303	-0.253	-0.123	5.125	0.101	0.151	0.281
5.250	0.137	0.187	0.317	5.000	0.230	0.280	0.410
5.125	0.614	0.664	0.794	4.875	0.597	0.647	0.777
5.000	0.815	0.865	0.995	4.750	1.072	1.122	1.252
4.875	1.199	1.249	1.379	4.625	1.586	1.636	1.766
4.750	1.678	1.728	1.858	4.500	1.831	1.881	2.011
4.625	2.192	2.242	2.372	4.375	2.240	2.290	2.420