Magazyn Kieszeń (523) 10.05.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 October Coupon is down -43 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You read the official BLS report here. Below is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

September Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 254K versus estimates of 140K.

August NFP revised upward from 142K to 159K.

July NFP revised upward from 89K to 144K.

The rolling 3 month average is now 185K.

Wages:

The national average hourly earnings rate increased a massive 13 cents to $35.36 per hour.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM were up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY were up 4.0% versus estimates of 3.8%.

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.1% versus estimates of 4.2%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped from 7.9% to 7.7%.

The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.7%.

The Talking Fed: Today we will hear from NY Fed President John Williams.

 

A lot more jobs than anyone thought sent interest rates blowing up today. Like the July employment report released in early August sent interest rates lower. For the last two weeks the rate markets were tied into a very narrow range, we noted earlier this week that when the range was violated the move in the direction of the breach would be swift, yesterday the 10 year note edged out of the range ending the session at 3.85% (the top of the range was 3.80%; today’s wild employment increase in jobs added strong emphasis for technical traders, and most traders rely more on market action than the countless and continuous comments that dominate the news.

The July employment report was much weaker the estimates, just like today’s being much stronger than forecasts. The July report was seen as a 50 bp cut in rates and the Fed a week later did it, now the idea of a 50 cut has been flushed and even some now in their knee jerk reaction thinking no cuts next months. Heard some comments today the BLS employment data isn’t a true picture (How can it be given it is just the begging of October, the government guesses a lot) That is a valid assumption, but for the moment it is gospel; next month there will be another BLS revision with more accuracy. Doesn’t matter, today it is gospel.

Mortgage rates over the last three weeks have increased from 6.13% to 6.60% today. Our outlook for the wider perspective, 30 year mortgage rates will hold under 7.0% but expectations for mortgage rates declining is 6.50% this year (it’s a moving target though).

Next Week’s Calendar: More inflation data. Monday August consumer credit. Tuesday August consumer credit, August trade deficit, Sept NFIB small business optimism index , 3 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes from the last meeting, 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Sept CPI, Sept budget statement that will provide fiscal 2024 deficit, 30 year bond auction. Friday Sept PPI, University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.

This Week: The 10 note yield increased 22 bps, the 2 year note +36 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year MBS price down 84 bps. The stock market unchanged, DJIA +40, NASDAQ +18, S&P +13. Gold unchanged on the week, crude oil increased $6.08, Bitcoin -3,426, the dollar increased, up 2.09.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 3.98% +13 bp (4.0% is critical)

5 year note: 3.81% +18 bp

2 year note: 3.93% +22 bp

30 year bond: 4.26% +8 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.50 -46 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.66 -36 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.54 -32 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 148.79 +1.84 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0978 -$0.0054

Dollar Index: 102.48 +0.49

Gold: $2,668.60 -$10.60

Bitcoin: 62,335 +1322

Crude Oil: $74.52 +$0.81

DJIA: 42,352.75 +341.16

NASDAQ: 18,137.85 +219.37

S&P 500: 5751.07 +51.13

SOFR Data 10/04: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.11254, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.29197, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35844, INDEX: 1.16150264

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,291.53	+10.87	+0.48%	-4.64%	+21.93%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	82,010.88	+289.10	+0.35%	-2.96%	+27.58%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,899.63	+12.73	+0.44%	-0.68%	+24.64%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0974	-0.0057	-0.52%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	148.7000	1.7700	+1.20%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3122	-0.0002	-0.02%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6795	-0.0045	-0.66%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3576	0.0021	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8584	0.0055	+0.64%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN		19.2841	-0.0683			-0.35%	4:59 PM
USD-CZK	23.0998			0.1423	+0.62%			4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.4512			0.1418	+0.52%			4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9310			0.0250	+0.64%			4:59 PM
USD-HUF	365.7000			1.7100	+0.47%			4:59 PM
USD-RUB	95.0745			0.4775	+0.50%			2:44 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-3.621	-3.531	-3.401	7.375	-3.234	-3.144	-3.014
7.375	-3.297	-3.207	-3.077	7.250	-2.875	-2.785	-2.655
7.250	-2.910	-2.820	-2.690	7.125	-2.895	-2.805	-2.675
7.125	-2.965	-2.875	-2.745	7.000	-2.640	-2.550	-2.420
7.000	-2.739	-2.649	-2.519	6.875	-2.303	-2.213	-2.083
6.875	-2.362	-2.272	-2.142	6.750	-1.934	-1.844	-1.714
6.750	-1.916	-1.826	-1.696	6.625	-2.552	-2.462	-2.332
6.625	-2.193	-2.103	-1.973	6.500	-2.229	-2.139	-2.009
6.500	-1.903	-1.813	-1.683	6.375	-1.865	-1.775	-1.645
6.375	-1.453	-1.363	-1.233	6.250	-1.464	-1.374	-1.244
6.250	-0.934	-0.844	-0.714	6.125	-1.780	-1.690	-1.560
6.125	-1.263	-1.173	-1.043	5.999	-1.426	-1.336	-1.206
5.999	-0.876	-0.786	-0.656	5.875	-0.979	-0.889	-0.759
5.875	-0.271	-0.181	-0.051	5.750	-0.518	-0.428	-0.298
5.750	0.408	0.498	0.628	5.625	-0.040	0.050	0.180
5.625	0.349	0.439	0.569	5.500	0.354	0.444	0.574
5.500	0.888	0.978	1.108	5.375	0.841	0.931	1.061
5.375	1.582	1.672	1.802	5.250	1.380	1.470	1.600
5.250	2.313	2.403	2.533	5.125	2.053	2.143	2.273

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.087	-2.997	-2.867	6.250	-2.608	-2.518	-2.388
6.375	-2.902	-2.812	-2.682	6.125	-2.300	-2.210	-2.080
6.250	-2.533	-2.443	-2.313	6.000	-2.332	-2.242	-2.112
6.125	-2.225	-2.135	-2.005	5.875	-2.122	-2.032	-1.902
6.000	-2.210	-2.120	-1.990	5.750	-1.725	-1.635	-1.505
5.875	-1.985	-1.895	-1.765	5.625	-1.442	-1.352	-1.222
5.750	-1.587	-1.497	-1.367	5.500	-1.565	-1.475	-1.345
5.625	-1.304	-1.214	-1.084	5.375	-1.296	-1.206	-1.076
5.500	-1.250	-1.160	-1.030	5.250	-0.870	-0.780	-0.650
5.375	-0.972	-0.882	-0.752	5.125	-0.766	-0.676	-0.546
5.250	-0.545	-0.455	-0.325	5.000	-0.637	-0.547	-0.417
5.125	-0.441	-0.351	-0.221	4.875	-0.317	-0.227	-0.097
5.000	-0.169	-0.079	0.051	4.750	0.148	0.238	0.368
4.875	0.164	0.254	0.384	4.625	0.429	0.519	0.649
4.750	0.629	0.719	0.849	4.500	0.475	0.565	0.695
4.625	0.910	1.000	1.130	4.375	0.867	0.957	1.087
4.500	1.128	1.218	1.348	4.250	1.357	1.447	1.577
4.375	1.535	1.625	1.755	4.125	1.859	1.949	2.079
4.250	2.026	2.116	2.246	4.000	2.377	2.467	2.597

 

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.99%	4.95%	7.53%	28.83%	42.54%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.53% +0.27%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.27 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% +0.25 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.04% +0.26 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.60% +0.17 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.35% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.06% +0.27 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/4 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.88% +0.25%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.25% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/3   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.03 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 5.47% +0.05 0.52 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% +0.06 0.50 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/25

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.19 -0.50   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.19 -0.50 UMBS 5.5 100.55 -0.42 GNMA 5.0 99.75 -0.31 GNMA 5.5 100.54 -0.34 Pricing as of: 10/4 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.9682 +0.1205   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.927 +0.220 5 YR Treasury 3.805 +0.176 7 YR Treasury 3.867 +0.152 10 YR Treasury 3.968 +0.121 30 YR Treasury 4.254 +0.075 Pricing as of: 10/4 5:31PM EST