Magazyn Kieszeń (531) 12.07.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 December Coupon is up by +24 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

November Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was 227K versus estimates of 200K.

October NFP was revised upward from 12K to 36K.

September NFP was revised upward from 223K to 225K.

The rolling three month average is now 163K.

Wages:

The national Average Hourly Earnings rate rose by 13 cents to $35.61.

Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and 4.0% versus estimates of 3.9% on a YOY basis.

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% which matched the consensus estimates.

The U6 Underemployment Rate increased from 7.7% to 7.8%.

The Labor Force Participation Rate moved lower from 62.6% to 62.5%.

Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary UofM December Consumer Sentiment Index was higher than expected, 74 versus estimates of 73 but the 5YR Inflation Expectations moved lower from 3.2% to 3.1%.

Consumer Credit: The October Consumer Credit Change was almost double the market expectations, $19.24B versus estimates of $10B.

 

A lot of volatility today; the employment report seen as a positive sent MBS prices +12 bps and the 10 year down to 4.14% -4 bps. Interest rates held until about 11 am ET then in one rapid move the 10 year note increased to 4.18% unchanged on the day and yesterday’s close. The employment data seen as more evidence the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting on December 18th. This afternoon rate markets settled down to close slightly lower.

November employment data

The University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index was stronger than estimates.

October consumer credit increased. Total consumer credit in the U.S. jumped by $19.2B in October 2024, accelerating from a $6B rise in a month earlier and beating market estimates of $10B increase. The seasonally adjusted annual growth rate was 4.5%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.1%.

The conventional wisdom among economists and traders is that the Federal Reserve is going to cut its benchmark interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point on December 18, and then pause at its first meeting in 2025. The job market in November better than estimates and brought out those that believe the Fed should not lower the FF rate at the December meeting. It is usually the same vibes heading into an FOMC meeting, those that yesterday thought a rate cut was highly likely now not that positive; why interest rates gave up the immediate improvements when employment was reported. Then a couple of more reasons, next week November CPI and PPI will hit. By the end of the session, not much change in rates.

Next Week’s calendar: Monday October wholesale inventories for October. Tuesday Nov NFIB small business optimism index, Q3 productivity and unit labor costs. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, November CPI, November Treasury budget. Thursday weekly jobless claims, November PPI. Nothing on Friday.

This week: The 10 year note this week -1 bp, the 2 year note -6 bp, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +30 bps. The DJIA this week -268, NASDAQ +642, S&P +58. The DJIA Gold this week -$20.00, crude oil -$1.44. The dollar index steady +0.22, Bitcoin the big gained +4,807.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.16% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.04% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.10% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.33% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.52 +10 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.69 +14 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.37 +11 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 150.01 -0.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0563 -$0.0026

Dollar Index: 106.02 +0.30

Gold: $2,657.40 +$8.70

Bitcoin: 102,047 +2910

Crude Oil: $67.09 -$1.22

DJIA: 44,642.52 -123.19

NASDAQ: 19,859.77 +159.05

S&P 500: 6090.27 +15.16

SOFR Data 12/06: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.60889, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.85706, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.14520, INDEX: 1.17114059

Poland

Name Value Net Change % Change 1 Month 1 Year Time (EST)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

 2,310.00 -0.78 -0.03% +3.07% +0.01% 11:15 AM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

 82,860.19 +74.24 +0.09% +2.92% +7.39% 11:15 AM
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

 2,940.96 -3.21 -0.11% +3.60% +2.50% 11:15 AM
 

 

Currency

 Value Change Net Change Time (EST)
EUR-USD

 

 1.0568 -0.0018 -0.17% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

 150.0000 -0.1000 -0.07% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

 1.2744 -0.0015 -0.12% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

 0.6391 -0.0062 -0.96% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

 1.4157 0.0134 +0.96% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

 0.8788 0.0003 +0.03% 4:59 PM
USD-CZK

 

 23.7467 0.0561 +0.24% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

 28.5076 0.0489 +0.17% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

 4.0375 0.0048 +0.12% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

 391.3600 1.3200 +0.34% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

 100.2750 -0.4794 -0.48% 4:57 P
USD-MXN

 

 20.1886 -0.0070 -0.03% 4:59

 

 
30 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.68% -0.16%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 6.68% -0.16 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.04 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.12% -0.07 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% -0.02 0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM 6.60% -0.12 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.13% -0.07 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 12/6
15 Yr. Fixed Rate
5.98% -0.04%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.12 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.96% -0.14 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/5

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69
15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/30
MBS / Treasuries
UMBS 30YR 5.5
100.22 +0.21

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5 100.22 +0.21
UMBS 6.0 101.54 +0.19
GNMA 5.5 100.40 +0.09
GNMA 6.0 101.39 +0.15
Pricing as of: 12/6 5:31PM EST
10 Year US Treasury
4.1462 -0.0251

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.049
5 YR Treasury 4.030 -0.047
7 YR Treasury 4.081 -0.044
10 YR Treasury 4.146 -0.025
30 YR Treasury 4.332 -0.008
Pricing as of: 12/6 5:31PM EST
 

 

 ELITE  16-20 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.625 -3.952 -3.862 -3.732 7.500 -3.716 -3.626 -3.496
7.500 -3.690 -3.600 -3.470 7.375 -3.358 -3.268 -3.138
7.375 -3.332 -3.242 -3.112 7.250 -2.909 -2.819 -2.689
7.250 -2.893 -2.803 -2.673 7.125 -3.058 -2.968 -2.838
7.125 -3.084 -2.994 -2.864 6.999 -2.375 -2.285 -2.155
6.999 -2.800 -2.710 -2.580 6.875 -2.372 -2.282 -2.152
6.875 -2.379 -2.289 -2.159 6.750 -1.927 -1.837 -1.707
6.750 -1.872 -1.782 -1.652 6.625 -2.480 -2.390 -2.260
6.625 -2.235 -2.145 -2.015 6.500 -2.267 -2.177 -2.047
6.500 -1.881 -1.791 -1.661 6.375 -1.772 -1.682 -1.552
6.375 -1.384 -1.294 -1.164 6.250 -1.310 -1.220 -1.090
6.250 -0.790 -0.700 -0.570 6.125 -1.476 -1.386 -1.256
6.125 -1.075 -0.985 -0.855 5.999 -1.102 -1.012 -0.882
5.999 -0.609 -0.519 -0.389 5.875 -0.657 -0.567 -0.437
5.875 0.047 0.137 0.267 5.750 -0.162 -0.072 0.058
5.750 0.773 0.863 0.993 5.625 0.498 0.588 0.718
5.625 0.703 0.793 0.923 5.500 0.847 0.937 1.067
5.500 1.257 1.347 1.477 5.375 1.391 1.481 1.611
5.375 2.022 2.112 2.242 5.250 1.909 1.999 2.129

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR  ELITE  8-10 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
6.750 -3.056 -2.966 -2.836 6.500 -3.044 -2.954 -2.824
6.625 -3.232 -3.142 -3.012 6.375 -2.777 -2.687 -2.557
6.500 -2.981 -2.891 -2.761 6.250 -2.340 -2.250 -2.120
6.375 -2.702 -2.612 -2.482 6.125 -2.586 -2.496 -2.366
6.250 -2.265 -2.175 -2.045 6.000 -2.315 -2.225 -2.095
6.125 -2.480 -2.390 -2.260 5.875 -2.009 -1.919 -1.789
6.000 -2.192 -2.102 -1.972 5.750 -1.538 -1.448 -1.318
5.875 -1.872 -1.782 -1.652 5.625 -1.724 -1.634 -1.504
5.750 -1.401 -1.311 -1.181 5.500 -1.401 -1.311 -1.181
5.625 -1.431 -1.341 -1.211 5.375 -1.059 -0.969 -0.839
5.500 -1.092 -1.002 -0.872 5.250 -0.566 -0.476 -0.346
5.375 -0.734 -0.644 -0.514 5.125 -0.410 -0.320 -0.190
5.250 -0.241 -0.151 -0.021 5.000 -0.033 0.057 0.187
5.125 0.040 0.130 0.260 4.875 0.341 0.431 0.561
5.000 0.431 0.521 0.651 4.750 0.863 0.953 1.083
4.875 0.822 0.912 1.042 4.625 0.611 0.701 0.831
4.750 1.344 1.434 1.564 4.500 1.038 1.128 1.258
4.625 1.243 1.333 1.463 4.375 1.451 1.541 1.671
4.500 1.690 1.780 1.910 4.250 1.997 2.087 2.217