Magazyn Kieszeń (536) 01.11.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 January Coupon is currently down -41 BPS. ***MBS/Bonds completely recovered from the big “beat” in the NFP data with 10 am ET pricing the same level as 8:25 am pricing just before the jobs data hit. However, the UofM 1 year inflation index CRUSHED long bonds and your pricing. Today’s selloff WAS NOT due to jobs, it was due to INFLATION.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big “made up” Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

December Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much higher than expected, up 256K versus estimates of 160K.

November NFP were revised lower from 227K to 212K.

October NFP were revised higher from 36K to 43K.

The rolling three month average is now 170K.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 10 cents to $35.69.

Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis.

Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.9% versus estimates of 4.0% on a YOY basis.

Unemployment:

The Unemployment Rate ticked lower from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.5%.

U6 Underemployment dropped from 7.7% down to 7.5%.

Consumer Sentiment Index: The preliminary January UofM Consumer Sentiment was lighter than expected, 73.2 versus estimates of 74.5 however the 1 year inflation expectations SHOT up from 2.8% to 3.3% which is yet another sign that inflation (and therefore stagflation) is a real problem for bonds.

Very strong job gains in December jobs; inflation fears, the Fed not likely to lower rates, the January University of Michigan consumer expectations increased to 3.0% from 2.8% in December. the highest level since June 2008, and the climbing US debt are sending interest rates increasing surprising even the most negative analysts on higher rates. The Fed thinks interest rates are high enough to slow economic growth. The 10 year now at a 4.78% increasing 18 bps this week.

The residential real estate market has a build up of homes for sale, buyers are resisting mortgage rates now over 7.0%. Sellers will have to lower prices or buyers will have to step up; both are likely this year.

Trump comes into office facing rapidly increasing inflation, a strong job market, increasing debt ceiling, looking for tax cuts. The cost of deporting the illegals will be high and the cuts in government waste won’t show up until at the least 4th quarter. Since his victory it’s been all sunshine at Mara Lago; the Ukraine War and the mid-east doesn’t provide a lot of confidence for lower interest rates. Investors and traders running for the hills. The S&P this week the worst week in over a decade; stocks are at the beginning of a big correction.

Next Week key inflation data with December PPI and CPI. Monday December Treasury budget (another damper on rates). Tuesday the NFIB December small business optimism index, December PPI. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, December CPI, January Empire State manufacturing index, Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims December retail sales, January Philadelphia Fed business index, December exports and import prices. Friday December housing starts and building permits, December industrial production and capacity utilization.

This Week: The 10 year note yield +17 bps, the 2 year yield +10 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week -66 bps, the 6.5 -52 bp. The DJIA -794, NASDAQ -292, S&P -70. Gold increased $60.00, crude oil +2.98. The dollar index increased 0.35 supporting gold price increases, bitcoin had a very volatile week ending down 3,329.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.77% +8 bp

5 year note: 4.59% +13 bp

2 year note: 4.39% +12 bp

30 year bond: 4.96% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.65 -452 bp (-18 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.69 -34 bp (-13 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 10.29 -32 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 157.83 -0.32 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0245 -$0.0057

Dollar Index: 109.68 +0.51

Gold: $2,715.40 +$24.60

Bitcoin: 94,776 +2916

Crude Oil: $76.53 +$2.61

DJIA: 41,938.45 -696.75

NASDAQ: 19,161.63 -317.25

S&P 500: 5827.04 -91.21

SOFR Data 01/10: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.43799, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.63596, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.97163, INDEX: 1.17622527

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,257.16	+9.22	+0.41%	-2.60%	-0.60%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	82,210.50	+353.38	+0.43%	-0.87%	+6.99%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,886.47	+12.42	+0.43%	-1.98%	+2.18%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0244	-0.0056	-0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.7300	-0.4100	-0.26%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2207	-0.0101	-0.82%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6147	-0.0049	-0.79%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4423	0.0028	+0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9164	0.0043	+0.47%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	24.4792	0.1198	+0.49%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	29.4073	0.1583	+0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.1621	0.0239	+0.58%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	403.3900	1.7600	+0.44%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	101.9167	-0.3470	-0.34%	4:58 P

 

USD-MXN

20.7161

0.2050

+1.00%

4:59 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.125	-4.693	-4.603	-4.473	8.125	-4.806	-4.716	-4.586
8.000	-4.456	-4.366	-4.236	8.000	-4.548	-4.458	-4.328
7.875	-4.117	-4.027	-3.897	7.875	-4.194	-4.104	-3.974
7.750	-3.694	-3.604	-3.474	7.750	-3.740	-3.650	-3.520
7.625	-3.182	-3.092	-2.962	7.625	-3.282	-3.192	-3.062
7.500	-2.776	-2.686	-2.556	7.500	-2.749	-2.659	-2.529
7.375	-2.379	-2.289	-2.159	7.375	-2.310	-2.220	-2.090
7.250	-1.909	-1.819	-1.689	7.250	-1.861	-1.771	-1.641
7.125	-1.423	-1.333	-1.203	7.125	-1.432	-1.342	-1.212
6.999	-1.099	-1.009	-0.879	6.999	-0.516	-0.426	-0.296
6.875	-0.611	-0.521	-0.391	6.875	-0.496	-0.406	-0.276
6.750	-0.061	0.029	0.159	6.750	-0.030	0.060	0.190
6.625	0.360	0.450	0.580	6.625	0.239	0.329	0.459
6.500	0.682	0.772	0.902	6.500	0.507	0.597	0.727
6.375	1.297	1.387	1.517	6.375	1.000	1.090	1.220
6.250	1.948	2.038	2.168	6.250	1.485	1.575	1.705
6.125	2.336	2.426	2.556	6.125	1.966	2.056	2.186
5.999	2.803	2.893	3.023	5.999	2.384	2.474	2.604
5.875	3.513	3.603	3.733	5.875	2.853	2.943	3.073

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.083	-2.993	-2.863	7.125	-3.042	-2.952	-2.822
7.000	-2.863	-2.773	-2.643	7.000	-2.834	-2.744	-2.614
6.875	-2.620	-2.530	-2.400	6.875	-2.602	-2.512	-2.382
6.750	-2.180	-2.090	-1.960	6.750	-2.161	-2.071	-1.941
6.625	-2.109	-2.019	-1.889	6.625	-2.160	-2.070	-1.940
6.500	-1.857	-1.767	-1.637	6.500	-1.920	-1.830	-1.700
6.375	-1.582	-1.492	-1.362	6.375	-1.657	-1.567	-1.437
6.250	-1.123	-1.033	-0.903	6.250	-1.198	-1.108	-0.978
6.125	-0.959	-0.869	-0.739	6.125	-1.069	-0.979	-0.849
6.000	-0.668	-0.578	-0.448	6.000	-0.792	-0.702	-0.572
5.875	-0.334	-0.244	-0.114	5.875	-0.471	-0.381	-0.251
5.750	0.157	0.247	0.377	5.750	0.020	0.110	0.240
5.625	0.676	0.766	0.896	5.625	0.499	0.589	0.719
5.500	1.033	1.123	1.253	5.500	0.724	0.814	0.944
5.375	1.403	1.493	1.623	5.375	1.078	1.168	1.298
5.250	1.917	2.007	2.137	5.250	1.592	1.682	1.812
5.125	2.316	2.406	2.536	5.125	1.937	2.027	2.157
5.000	2.796	2.886	3.016	5.000	2.330	2.420	2.550
4.875	3.185	3.275	3.405	4.875	2.703	2.793	2.923

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.24% +0.09%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.24% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.55% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.42% +0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.10% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.57% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.53% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.14% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/9   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% 0.00 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.15% 0.00 0.71 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.86% 0.00 0.61 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/25

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 97.52 -0.65   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 97.52 -0.65 UMBS 6.0 99.67 -0.56 GNMA 5.5 98.34 -0.44 GNMA 6.0 100.32 -0.32 Pricing as of: 1/10 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.7639 +0.0797   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.387 +0.121 5 YR Treasury 4.582 +0.124 7 YR Treasury 4.682 +0.123 10 YR Treasury 4.764 +0.080 30 YR Treasury 4.952 +0.023 Pricing as of: 1/10 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	1.83%	4.92%	7.19%	27.35%	44.10%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL