Market Wrap-up
Taking it to the House: December Housing Starts were much higher than expected with an annualized pace of 1.499M units versus estimates of 1.320M. However this is mostly Multi-Family/Rental units which surged to their highest levels since 2016 with a jump of 58.9% MOM jump. Building Permits also beat with 1.483M versus estimates of 1.320M.
Rosie the Riveter: December Industrial Production was three times higher than expectations, up 0.9% versus estimates of 0.3%. Capacity Utilization rose to 77.6% versus estimates of 77.0%.
The Talking Fed: We have now entered the “media blackout” period leading up to January’s FOMC meeting.
On Deck for Tomorrow: ***The Bond Market is CLOSED on Monday***
Better inflation on CPI this week, Fed governor Chris Waller saying maybe three Fed cuts this year (if inflation declines). Dec retail sales slipped, +0.4% from +0.7% in November.
Interest rates after increasing since mid-Dec and technically over-sold reversed on the data, and ahead of a very busy week next week as Trump is set to rock the boat with executive orders, and Congress set to approve a number of new cabinet positions, will the boat tip over?
Next Week’s Calendar doesn’t have much. Markets closed on Monday. Nothing on Tuesday. Wednesday Dec leading economic indicators that hardly gets noticed, weekly MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday Jan prelim S&P global manufacturing index, Dec existing home sales, University of Michigan final Jan consumer sentiment index.
Monday’s inauguration won’t be on the Capital steps, being moved inside due to very cold weather. Trump gave to order. Trump in the Truth Social post said D.C.’s Capital One Arena will be opened for a live viewing of his inauguration and that it will also host a scheduled presidential parade. On this Sunday, a large rally at the Capitol One Center. “I will join the crowd at Capital One, after my Swearing In,” Trump wrote. Many who had traveled to Washington disappointed.
This Week: The 10 year note yield fell 16 bps, the 2 year -11 bps, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased 72 bps in price. The DJIA +1,550, NASDAQ +468, S&P +170. Gold this week +$26.00, crude oil +$1.51. The winner this week, Bitcoin, it increased 10,295 as Trump adds support. The dollar index declined 0.32 after climbing the past several weeks.
The 10 year note hit a rut in the road today, declining to its 25-day moving average, unable to break through, it hasn’t traded below it since mid-Dec.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.61% unch
5 year note: 4.42% +2 bp
2 year note: 4.28% +5 bp
30 year bond: 4.85% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.37 -9 bp (-12 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.19 -4 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.60 -8 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 156.15 +0.99 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0276 -$0.0026
Dollar Index: 109.31 +0.36
Gold: $2,740.50 -$10.40
Bitcoin: 105,071 +4763
Crude Oil: $78.04 -$0.64
DJIA: 43,487.83 +334.70
NASDAQ: 19,630.20 +291.91
S&P 500: 5996.71 +59.37
SOFR Data 01/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36207, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.59327, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.92974, INDEX: 1.17720707
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,307.26 | +28.68 | +1.26% | +4.31% | +6.44% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
83,676.44 | +970.68 | +1.17% | +4.87% | +13.72% | 11:15 AM |
WIG30:IND
|
2,947.81 | +37.84 | +1.30% | +4.32% | +9.57% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
EUR-USD
|
1.0273 | -0.0028 | -0.27% | 4:59 PM |
USD-JPY
|
156.3000 | 1.1400 | +0.73% | 4:59 PM |
GBP-USD
|
1.2169 | -0.0070 | -0.57% | 4:59 PM |
AUD-USD
|
0.6193 | -0.0020 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CAD
|
1.4477 | 0.0082 | +0.57% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CHF
|
0.9150 | 0.0041 | +0.45% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CZK
|
24.5924 | 0.0482 | +0.20% | 4:59 PM |
USD-SKK
|
29.3261 | 0.0804 | +0.27% | 4:59 PM |
USD-PLN
|
4.1470 | 0.0076 | +0.18% | 4:59 PM |
USD-HUF
|
402.1200 | 1.6300 | +0.41% | 4:59 PM |
USD-RUB
|
102.4855 | -1.2014 | -1.16% | 12:01 PM |
USD-MXN
|
20.7862 | -0.0579 | -0.28% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
8.125 | -5.167 | -5.077 | -4.947 | 7.750 | -4.119 | -4.029 | -3.899 |
8.000 | -4.929 | -4.839 | -4.709 | 7.625 | -3.678 | -3.588 | -3.458 |
7.875 | -4.564 | -4.474 | -4.344 | 7.500 | -3.142 | -3.052 | -2.922 |
7.750 | -4.121 | -4.031 | -3.901 | 7.375 | -2.763 | -2.673 | -2.543 |
7.625 | -3.631 | -3.541 | -3.411 | 7.250 | -2.311 | -2.221 | -2.091 |
7.500 | -3.348 | -3.258 | -3.128 | 7.125 | -1.870 | -1.780 | -1.650 |
7.375 | -2.918 | -2.828 | -2.698 | 6.999 | -1.167 | -1.077 | -0.947 |
7.250 | -2.421 | -2.331 | -2.201 | 6.875 | -1.127 | -1.037 | -0.907 |
7.125 | -2.159 | -2.069 | -1.939 | 6.750 | -0.648 | -0.558 | -0.428 |
6.999 | -1.860 | -1.770 | -1.640 | 6.625 | -0.661 | -0.571 | -0.441 |
6.875 | -1.340 | -1.250 | -1.120 | 6.500 | -0.398 | -0.308 | -0.178 |
6.750 | -0.759 | -0.669 | -0.539 | 6.375 | 0.118 | 0.208 | 0.338 |
6.625 | -0.677 | -0.587 | -0.457 | 6.250 | 0.626 | 0.716 | 0.846 |
6.500 | -0.285 | -0.195 | -0.065 | 6.125 | 0.909 | 0.999 | 1.129 |
6.375 | 0.364 | 0.454 | 0.584 | 5.999 | 1.337 | 1.427 | 1.557 |
6.250 | 1.043 | 1.133 | 1.263 | 5.875 | 1.815 | 1.905 | 2.035 |
6.125 | 1.204 | 1.294 | 1.424 | 5.750 | 2.339 | 2.429 | 2.559 |
5.999 | 1.700 | 1.790 | 1.920 | 5.625 | 2.996 | 3.086 | 3.216 |
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.125 | -3.551 | -3.461 | -3.331 | 7.000 | -3.303 | -3.213 | -3.083 |
7.000 | -3.333 | -3.243 | -3.113 | 6.875 | -3.072 | -2.982 | -2.852 |
6.875 | -3.091 | -3.001 | -2.871 | 6.750 | -2.618 | -2.528 | -2.398 |
6.750 | -2.637 | -2.547 | -2.417 | 6.625 | -2.754 | -2.664 | -2.534 |
6.625 | -2.703 | -2.613 | -2.483 | 6.500 | -2.519 | -2.429 | -2.299 |
6.500 | -2.456 | -2.366 | -2.236 | 6.375 | -2.256 | -2.166 | -2.036 |
6.375 | -2.181 | -2.091 | -1.961 | 6.250 | -1.774 | -1.684 | -1.554 |
6.250 | -1.699 | -1.609 | -1.479 | 6.125 | -1.873 | -1.783 | -1.653 |
6.125 | -1.762 | -1.672 | -1.542 | 6.000 | -1.596 | -1.506 | -1.376 |
6.000 | -1.472 | -1.382 | -1.252 | 5.875 | -1.277 | -1.187 | -1.057 |
5.875 | -1.140 | -1.050 | -0.920 | 5.750 | -0.768 | -0.678 | -0.548 |
5.750 | -0.630 | -0.540 | -0.410 | 5.625 | -0.284 | -0.194 | -0.064 |
5.625 | -0.145 | -0.055 | 0.075 | 5.500 | 0.095 | 0.185 | 0.315 |
5.500 | 0.332 | 0.422 | 0.552 | 5.375 | 0.450 | 0.540 | 0.670 |
5.375 | 0.775 | 0.865 | 0.995 | 5.250 | 0.978 | 1.068 | 1.198 |
5.250 | 1.303 | 1.393 | 1.523 | 5.125 | 1.213 | 1.303 | 1.433 |
5.125 | 1.660 | 1.750 | 1.880 | 5.000 | 1.607 | 1.697 | 1.827 |
5.000 | 2.073 | 2.163 | 2.293 | 4.875 | 1.984 | 2.074 | 2.204 |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 1.83% | 4.92% | 7.19% | 27.35% | 44.10% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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