Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 February Coupon is up just +6 BPS at 3 PM ET.
Taking it to the House: The December NARs Existing Home Sales was higher than expected with 4.24M units versus estimates of 4.160M units.
Consumer Sentiment: The final/revised January UofM Consumer Sentiment was revised lower from 73.2 down to 71.1. The 5 year inflation outlook dropped from 3.3% to 3.2%.
Rosie the Riveter: The flash markit manufacturing PMI cracked above 50 for the first time in a long time with a 50.1 reading versus estimates of 49.6.
Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan raised their interest rate by 25BPS to 0.50 which was widely expected.
Very little movement again today, it’s been the same all week with treasuries and MBSs ending unchanged since last Friday. Trump eased a little on tariffs yesterday speaking to Davos clan.
There is the view that the Fed isn’t going to cut rates, if at all one cut. That idea is like trying to hold water in a sieve, its about inflation and until next Friday when PCE data is reported there isn’t any reason to adapt any view about what the Fed will do. One Fed governor, Chris Waller sees four cuts if inflation subsides as it did last week with the CPI report In the meantime, the ECB will meet next week and will cut rates again. The Trump agenda is still up in the air with many issues he is presently floating. Putin saying today he wants to meet with Trump over Ukraine.
There are some making a big deal about the University of Michigan’s sentiment index that showed consumers are thinking inflation at 3.3% from 2.5% on the December report; not to belittle consumers but they are not the best gauges of inflation outlooks, although it is just a guess; it’s what inflation is now that will get the attention next Friday. Also, this week the ECB and the Bank of Canada are expected to lower rates. On interest rate levels Trump made a strong statement yesterday that interest rate must come down and he will speak to Powell next week (that said Powell isn’t likely to buckle to Trump).
This morning December existing home sales rose by 2.2% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.38 million units in December of 2024, the most since February 2024. Total housing inventory was at 1.15 million units, a 13.5% drop from November, and equivalent to 3.3 months of supply at the current sales pace.
Next week unlike this week is loaded with key data. Monday December new home sales, 2 year and 5 year note auctions Tuesday December durable goods orders, Case/Shiller November home price index, January Conference Board consumer confidence index, 7 year note auction. Wednesday FOMC meeting decision, weekly MBA mortgage applications. Thursday Q4 advance GDP, weekly claims, continuing claims, December pending home sales. Friday December personal income and spending, Q4 employment cost index, December PCE inflation report.
This week: The 10 year note this eke increased 2 bps, the 2 year note unchanged, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week unchanged from last Friday. Gold increased $39.00, crude oil dropped $3.24. The DJIA this week+936, Nasdaq +324, S&P +114. The dollar declined, the index down 1.83, Bitcoin unchanged on the week.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.63% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.43% -1 bp
2 year note: 4.28% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.85% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.37 +7 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.18 +2 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.57 +7 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 155.96 -0.10 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0490 +$0.0072
Dollar Index: 107.48 -0.56
Gold: $2,70.20 +$15.20
Bitcoin: 105,102 +1782
Crude Oil: $74.70 +$0.08
DJIA: 44,424.25 -140.82
NASDAQ: 19,954.30 -99.38
S&P 500: 6101.24 -17.47
SOFR Data 01/24: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34932, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.55146, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.88819, INDEX: 1.17819159
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,378.78 | +15.54 | +0.66% | +8.02% | +6.99% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
85,840.81 | +592.65 | +0.70% | +7.82% | +13.42% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
EUR-USD
|
1.0497 | 0.0082 | +0.79% | 4:59 PM |
USD-JPY
|
156.0000 | -0.0500 | -0.03% | 4:59 PM |
GBP-USD
|
1.2484 | 0.0131 | +1.06% | 4:59 PM |
AUD-USD
|
0.6314 | 0.0029 | +0.46% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CAD
|
1.4341 | -0.0042 | -0.29% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CHF
|
0.9059 | -0.0015 | -0.17% | 4:59 PM |
USD-MXN
|
20.2675 | -0.1184 | -0.58% | 4:59 PM |
USD-CZK
|
23.8917 | -0.2090 | -0.87% | 4:59 PM |
USD-SKK
|
28.6997 | -0.2245 | -0.78% | 4:59 PM |
USD-PLN
|
4.0130 | -0.0336 | -0.83% | 4:59 PM |
USD-HUF
|
388.7400 | -4.9500 | -1.26% | 4:59 PM |
USD-RUB
|
97.8000 | -2.1375 | -2.14% | 4:57 PM |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
8.125 | -5.138 | -5.048 | -4.918 | 8.125 | -5.224 | -5.134 | -5.004 |
8.000 | -4.885 | -4.795 | -4.665 | 8.000 | -4.942 | -4.852 | -4.722 |
7.875 | -4.528 | -4.438 | -4.308 | 7.875 | -4.578 | -4.488 | -4.358 |
7.750 | -4.097 | -4.007 | -3.877 | 7.750 | -4.122 | -4.032 | -3.902 |
7.625 | -3.583 | -3.493 | -3.363 | 7.625 | -3.647 | -3.557 | -3.427 |
7.500 | -3.287 | -3.197 | -3.067 | 7.500 | -3.147 | -3.057 | -2.927 |
7.375 | -2.869 | -2.779 | -2.649 | 7.375 | -2.762 | -2.672 | -2.542 |
7.250 | -2.388 | -2.298 | -2.168 | 7.250 | -2.311 | -2.221 | -2.091 |
7.125 | -2.113 | -2.023 | -1.893 | 7.125 | -1.891 | -1.801 | -1.671 |
6.999 | -1.805 | -1.715 | -1.585 | 6.999 | -1.127 | -1.037 | -0.907 |
6.875 | -1.306 | -1.216 | -1.086 | 6.875 | -1.146 | -1.056 | -0.926 |
6.750 | -0.735 | -0.645 | -0.515 | 6.750 | -0.679 | -0.589 | -0.459 |
6.625 | -0.663 | -0.573 | -0.443 | 6.625 | -0.730 | -0.640 | -0.510 |
6.500 | -0.279 | -0.189 | -0.059 | 6.500 | -0.406 | -0.316 | -0.186 |
6.375 | 0.347 | 0.437 | 0.567 | 6.375 | 0.081 | 0.171 | 0.301 |
6.250 | 1.031 | 1.121 | 1.251 | 6.250 | 0.569 | 0.659 | 0.789 |
6.125 | 1.194 | 1.284 | 1.414 | 6.125 | 0.839 | 0.929 | 1.059 |
5.999 | 1.677 | 1.767 | 1.897 | 5.999 | 1.286 | 1.376 | 1.506 |
5.875 | 2.407 | 2.497 | 2.627 | 5.875 | 1.764 | 1.854 | 1.984 |
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.125 | -3.477 | -3.387 | -3.257 | 7.125 | -3.439 | -3.349 | -3.219 |
7.000 | -3.242 | -3.152 | -3.022 | 7.000 | -3.213 | -3.123 | -2.993 |
6.875 | -2.987 | -2.897 | -2.767 | 6.875 | -2.968 | -2.878 | -2.748 |
6.750 | -2.543 | -2.453 | -2.323 | 6.750 | -2.525 | -2.435 | -2.305 |
6.625 | -2.599 | -2.509 | -2.379 | 6.625 | -2.650 | -2.560 | -2.430 |
6.500 | -2.330 | -2.240 | -2.110 | 6.500 | -2.393 | -2.303 | -2.173 |
6.375 | -2.048 | -1.958 | -1.828 | 6.375 | -2.123 | -2.033 | -1.903 |
6.250 | -1.586 | -1.496 | -1.366 | 6.250 | -1.661 | -1.571 | -1.441 |
6.125 | -1.578 | -1.488 | -1.358 | 6.125 | -1.689 | -1.599 | -1.469 |
6.000 | -1.263 | -1.173 | -1.043 | 6.000 | -1.387 | -1.297 | -1.167 |
5.875 | -0.923 | -0.833 | -0.703 | 5.875 | -1.060 | -0.970 | -0.840 |
5.750 | -0.429 | -0.339 | -0.209 | 5.750 | -0.566 | -0.476 | -0.346 |
5.625 | 0.082 | 0.172 | 0.302 | 5.625 | -0.056 | 0.034 | 0.164 |
5.500 | 0.472 | 0.562 | 0.692 | 5.500 | 0.162 | 0.252 | 0.382 |
5.375 | 0.859 | 0.949 | 1.079 | 5.375 | 0.534 | 0.624 | 0.754 |
5.250 | 1.375 | 1.465 | 1.595 | 5.250 | 1.050 | 1.140 | 1.270 |
5.125 | 1.664 | 1.754 | 1.884 | 5.125 | 1.215 | 1.305 | 1.435 |
5.000 | 2.083 | 2.173 | 2.303 | 5.000 | 1.619 | 1.709 | 1.839 |
4.875 | 2.482 | 2.572 | 2.702 | 4.875 | 2.001 | 2.091 | 2.221 |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 1.83% | 4.92% | 7.19% | 27.35% | 44.10% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
Home price changes for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | -2.54% | -1.28% | -3.05% | 31.57% | 72.08% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL |