Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The 4th QTR Employment Cost Index rose by 0.9% which matched expectations and was basically the same pace as the 3rd QTR which was 0.8%.
Inflation Nation: Has inflation moved lower to the “longer run” goal of 2%? Well, no. December MOM, PCE increased by 0.3% which is three times the pace of November and increased by 2.6% on a YOY basis versus November’s pace of 2.4%. Core (ex food and energy), PCE Increased by 0.2% which was double November’s pace and YOY, it was up 2.8% which matched November’s pace.
Incomes and Spending: Personal Incomes rose by 0.4% which matched market expectations and Personal Spending increased by 0.7% versus estimates of 0.5%.
Rosie the Riveter: Chicago PMI remained in doldrums with a 39.5 versus 39.9 estimates reading.
The December inflation held at 2.8% although it was what had been anticipated. Interest rates held through most of the day but lost footing this afternoon. The stock indexes traded better this morning, they too lost their footing, and the indexes came under pressure. Confusion over the implementing tariffs tomorrow; Reuters reported Trump would extend implementing tariffs until March 1st, CNBC reporting tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin tomorrow, 25%. According to news tariffs will start tomorrow. The reaction flipped stocks and interest rates from narrow trading to selling in stocks and buying treasuries. Reuters report held rates steady, after the White House denied any extensions, interest rates edged higher.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday, January ISM manufacturing index, December construction spending. Tuesday December factory orders, December JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, January ADP private jobs, December trade balance, January ISM services sector index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 productivity and unit labor costs. Friday January employment data, University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index December consumer credit.
This Week: The 10 year note yield -8 bps, the 2 year note yield -7 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +27 bps. The DJIA +121, NASDAQ -327, S&P -61. Gold this week jumped $126.00 driven by tariffs with more investors now demanding physical gold. Crude oil decline $1.83. Bitcoin took a hit, -3,249 this week. The dollar increased, the index +1.06, a big move.
Inflation at 2.8%, unchanged from November but still elevated. The reaction to the PCE inflation report this morning was muted as it was right on estimates, no change in interest rates on the report. This afternoon when the Trump administration said it would implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, which were his announced beginnings, markets got rattled, as if markets forgot about them.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.55% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.33% +1 bp
2 year note: 4.21% -1 bp
30 year bond: 4.80% +4bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.64 -15 bp (-10 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.48 -1 bp (unch from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.78 -13 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 155.17 +0.88 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0379 -$0.0013
Dollar Index: 108.54 +0.54
Gold: $2,826.20 -$18.70
Bitcoin: 101,753 -3144
Crude Oil: $72.57 -$0.16
DJIA: 44,544.66 -337.47
NASDAQ: 19,627.44 -54.31
S&P 500: 6040.53 -30.64
SOFR Data 01/31: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.32426, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.51270, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.84825, INDEX: 1.17918748
Poland
Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
WIG20:IND
|
2,433.77 | -7.46 | -0.31% | +11.03% | +3.55% | 11:15 AM |
WIG:IND
|
87,367.56 | -244.57 | -0.28% | +9.79% | +12.85% | 11:15 AM |
WIG30:IND
|
3,092.86 | -6.19 | -0.20% | +10.23% | +6.03% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) | |
EUR-USD
|
1.0363 | -0.0028 | -0.27% | 4:59 PM | |
USD-JPY
|
155.1900 | 0.9000 | +0.58% | 4:59 PM | |
GBP-USD
|
1.2395 | -0.0024 | -0.19% | 4:59 PM | |
AUD-USD
|
0.6218 | 0.0009 | +0.14% | 4:59 PM | |
USD-CAD
|
1.4541 | 0.0055 | +0.38% | 4:59 PM | |
USD-CHF
|
0.9109 | 0.0012 | +0.13% | 4:59 PM | |
USD-MXN
|
20.6780 | -0.0560 | -0.27% | 4:59 PM | |
USD-CZK
|
24.2927 | 0.1008 | +0.42% | 4:59 PM |
USD-SKK
|
29.0721 | 0.0790 | +0.27% | 4:59 PM |
USD-PLN
|
4.0647 | 0.0204 | +0.50% | 4:59 PM |
USD-HUF
|
393.5500 | 1.8200 | +0.46% | 4:59 PM |
USD-RUB
|
98.6867 | 0.3460 | +0.35% | 1:19 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
8.125 | -5.135 | -5.045 | -4.915 | 7.875 | -4.638 | -4.548 | -4.418 |
8.000 | -4.877 | -4.787 | -4.657 | 7.750 | -4.177 | -4.087 | -3.957 |
7.875 | -4.544 | -4.454 | -4.324 | 7.625 | -3.713 | -3.623 | -3.493 |
7.750 | -4.120 | -4.030 | -3.900 | 7.500 | -3.334 | -3.244 | -3.114 |
7.625 | -3.612 | -3.522 | -3.392 | 7.375 | -2.958 | -2.868 | -2.738 |
7.500 | -3.404 | -3.314 | -3.184 | 7.250 | -2.503 | -2.413 | -2.283 |
7.375 | -3.009 | -2.919 | -2.789 | 7.125 | -2.106 | -2.016 | -1.886 |
7.250 | -2.539 | -2.449 | -2.319 | 6.999 | -1.342 | -1.252 | -1.122 |
7.125 | -2.239 | -2.149 | -2.019 | 6.875 | -1.365 | -1.275 | -1.145 |
6.999 | -1.941 | -1.851 | -1.721 | 6.750 | -0.913 | -0.823 | -0.693 |
6.875 | -1.473 | -1.383 | -1.253 | 6.625 | -0.969 | -0.879 | -0.749 |
6.750 | -0.914 | -0.824 | -0.694 | 6.500 | -0.644 | -0.554 | -0.424 |
6.625 | -0.797 | -0.707 | -0.577 | 6.375 | -0.160 | -0.070 | 0.060 |
6.500 | -0.443 | -0.353 | -0.223 | 6.250 | 0.309 | 0.399 | 0.529 |
6.375 | 0.137 | 0.227 | 0.357 | 6.125 | 0.505 | 0.595 | 0.725 |
6.250 | 0.809 | 0.899 | 1.029 | 5.999 | 0.951 | 1.041 | 1.171 |
6.125 | 0.921 | 1.011 | 1.141 | 5.875 | 1.425 | 1.515 | 1.645 |
5.999 | 1.393 | 1.483 | 1.613 | 5.750 | 1.938 | 2.028 | 2.158 |
5.875 | 2.090 | 2.180 | 2.310 | 5.625 | 2.610 | 2.700 | 2.830 |
ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
7.125 | -3.700 | -3.610 | -3.480 | 7.000 | -3.435 | -3.345 | -3.215 |
7.000 | -3.464 | -3.374 | -3.244 | 6.875 | -3.190 | -3.100 | -2.970 |
6.875 | -3.208 | -3.118 | -2.988 | 6.750 | -2.752 | -2.662 | -2.532 |
6.750 | -2.771 | -2.681 | -2.551 | 6.625 | -2.823 | -2.733 | -2.603 |
6.625 | -2.773 | -2.683 | -2.553 | 6.500 | -2.565 | -2.475 | -2.345 |
6.500 | -2.502 | -2.412 | -2.282 | 6.375 | -2.293 | -2.203 | -2.073 |
6.375 | -2.218 | -2.128 | -1.998 | 6.250 | -1.840 | -1.750 | -1.620 |
6.250 | -1.765 | -1.675 | -1.545 | 6.125 | -1.937 | -1.847 | -1.717 |
6.125 | -1.827 | -1.737 | -1.607 | 6.000 | -1.637 | -1.547 | -1.417 |
6.000 | -1.513 | -1.423 | -1.293 | 5.875 | -1.310 | -1.220 | -1.090 |
5.875 | -1.173 | -1.083 | -0.953 | 5.750 | -0.822 | -0.732 | -0.602 |
5.750 | -0.685 | -0.595 | -0.465 | 5.625 | -0.373 | -0.283 | -0.153 |
5.625 | -0.191 | -0.101 | 0.029 | 5.500 | -0.147 | -0.057 | 0.073 |
5.500 | 0.163 | 0.253 | 0.383 | 5.375 | 0.224 | 0.314 | 0.444 |
5.375 | 0.549 | 0.639 | 0.769 | 5.250 | 0.733 | 0.823 | 0.953 |
5.250 | 1.058 | 1.148 | 1.278 | 5.125 | 1.113 | 1.203 | 1.333 |
5.125 | 1.493 | 1.583 | 1.713 | 5.000 | 1.466 | 1.556 | 1.686 |
5.000 | 1.930 | 2.020 | 2.150 | 4.875 | 1.847 | 1.937 | 2.067 |
4.875 | 2.328 | 2.418 | 2.548 | 4.750 | 2.384 | 2.474 | 2.604 |
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Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 1.83% | 4.92% | 7.19% | 27.35% | 44.10% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
Home price changes for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | -2.54% | -1.28% | -3.05% | 31.57% | 72.08% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL |