Market Wrap-up

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The 4th QTR Employment Cost Index rose by 0.9% which matched expectations and was basically the same pace as the 3rd QTR which was 0.8%.

Inflation Nation: Has inflation moved lower to the “longer run” goal of 2%? Well, no. December MOM, PCE increased by 0.3% which is three times the pace of November and increased by 2.6% on a YOY basis versus November’s pace of 2.4%. Core (ex food and energy), PCE Increased by 0.2% which was double November’s pace and YOY, it was up 2.8% which matched November’s pace.

Incomes and Spending: Personal Incomes rose by 0.4% which matched market expectations and Personal Spending increased by 0.7% versus estimates of 0.5%.

Rosie the Riveter: Chicago PMI remained in doldrums with a 39.5 versus 39.9 estimates reading.

 

The December inflation held at 2.8% although it was what had been anticipated. Interest rates held through most of the day but lost footing this afternoon. The stock indexes traded better this morning, they too lost their footing, and the indexes came under pressure. Confusion over the implementing tariffs tomorrow; Reuters reported Trump would extend implementing tariffs until March 1st, CNBC reporting tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin tomorrow, 25%. According to news tariffs will start tomorrow. The reaction flipped stocks and interest rates from narrow trading to selling in stocks and buying treasuries. Reuters report held rates steady, after the White House denied any extensions, interest rates edged higher.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday, January ISM manufacturing index, December construction spending. Tuesday December factory orders, December JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, January ADP private jobs, December trade balance, January ISM services sector index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 productivity and unit labor costs. Friday January employment data, University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index December consumer credit.

This Week: The 10 year note yield -8 bps, the 2 year note yield -7 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +27 bps. The DJIA +121, NASDAQ -327, S&P -61. Gold this week jumped $126.00 driven by tariffs with more investors now demanding physical gold. Crude oil decline $1.83. Bitcoin took a hit, -3,249 this week. The dollar increased, the index +1.06, a big move.

Inflation at 2.8%, unchanged from November but still elevated. The reaction to the PCE inflation report this morning was muted as it was right on estimates, no change in interest rates on the report. This afternoon when the Trump administration said it would implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, which were his announced beginnings, markets got rattled, as if markets forgot about them.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.55% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.33% +1 bp

2 year note: 4.21% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.80% +4bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.64 -15 bp (-10 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.48 -1 bp (unch from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.78 -13 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 155.17 +0.88 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0379 -$0.0013

Dollar Index: 108.54 +0.54

Gold: $2,826.20 -$18.70

Bitcoin: 101,753 -3144

Crude Oil: $72.57 -$0.16

DJIA: 44,544.66 -337.47

NASDAQ: 19,627.44 -54.31

S&P 500: 6040.53 -30.64

SOFR Data 01/31: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.32426, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.51270, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.84825, INDEX: 1.17918748

Poland

Name Value Net Change % Change 1 Month 1 Year Time (EST)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

2,433.77 -7.46 -0.31% +11.03% +3.55% 11:15 AM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

87,367.56 -244.57 -0.28% +9.79% +12.85% 11:15 AM
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

3,092.86 -6.19 -0.20% +10.23% +6.03% 11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency Value Change Net Change Time (EST)
EUR-USD

 

1.0363 -0.0028 -0.27% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

155.1900 0.9000 +0.58% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2395 -0.0024 -0.19% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6218 0.0009 +0.14% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.4541 0.0055 +0.38% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.9109 0.0012 +0.13% 4:59 PM
USD-MXN

 

20.6780 -0.0560 -0.27% 4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

24.2927 0.1008 +0.42% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

29.0721 0.0790 +0.27% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.0647 0.0204 +0.50% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

393.5500 1.8200 +0.46% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

98.6867 0.3460 +0.35% 1:19 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR  ELITE  16-20 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
8.125 -5.135 -5.045 -4.915 7.875 -4.638 -4.548 -4.418
8.000 -4.877 -4.787 -4.657 7.750 -4.177 -4.087 -3.957
7.875 -4.544 -4.454 -4.324 7.625 -3.713 -3.623 -3.493
7.750 -4.120 -4.030 -3.900 7.500 -3.334 -3.244 -3.114
7.625 -3.612 -3.522 -3.392 7.375 -2.958 -2.868 -2.738
7.500 -3.404 -3.314 -3.184 7.250 -2.503 -2.413 -2.283
7.375 -3.009 -2.919 -2.789 7.125 -2.106 -2.016 -1.886
7.250 -2.539 -2.449 -2.319 6.999 -1.342 -1.252 -1.122
7.125 -2.239 -2.149 -2.019 6.875 -1.365 -1.275 -1.145
6.999 -1.941 -1.851 -1.721 6.750 -0.913 -0.823 -0.693
6.875 -1.473 -1.383 -1.253 6.625 -0.969 -0.879 -0.749
6.750 -0.914 -0.824 -0.694 6.500 -0.644 -0.554 -0.424
6.625 -0.797 -0.707 -0.577 6.375 -0.160 -0.070 0.060
6.500 -0.443 -0.353 -0.223 6.250 0.309 0.399 0.529
6.375 0.137 0.227 0.357 6.125 0.505 0.595 0.725
6.250 0.809 0.899 1.029 5.999 0.951 1.041 1.171
6.125 0.921 1.011 1.141 5.875 1.425 1.515 1.645
5.999 1.393 1.483 1.613 5.750 1.938 2.028 2.158
5.875 2.090 2.180 2.310 5.625 2.610 2.700 2.830

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR  ELITE  8-10 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.125 -3.700 -3.610 -3.480 7.000 -3.435 -3.345 -3.215
7.000 -3.464 -3.374 -3.244 6.875 -3.190 -3.100 -2.970
6.875 -3.208 -3.118 -2.988 6.750 -2.752 -2.662 -2.532
6.750 -2.771 -2.681 -2.551 6.625 -2.823 -2.733 -2.603
6.625 -2.773 -2.683 -2.553 6.500 -2.565 -2.475 -2.345
6.500 -2.502 -2.412 -2.282 6.375 -2.293 -2.203 -2.073
6.375 -2.218 -2.128 -1.998 6.250 -1.840 -1.750 -1.620
6.250 -1.765 -1.675 -1.545 6.125 -1.937 -1.847 -1.717
6.125 -1.827 -1.737 -1.607 6.000 -1.637 -1.547 -1.417
6.000 -1.513 -1.423 -1.293 5.875 -1.310 -1.220 -1.090
5.875 -1.173 -1.083 -0.953 5.750 -0.822 -0.732 -0.602
5.750 -0.685 -0.595 -0.465 5.625 -0.373 -0.283 -0.153
5.625 -0.191 -0.101 0.029 5.500 -0.147 -0.057 0.073
5.500 0.163 0.253 0.383 5.375 0.224 0.314 0.444
5.375 0.549 0.639 0.769 5.250 0.733 0.823 0.953
5.250 1.058 1.148 1.278 5.125 1.113 1.203 1.333
5.125 1.493 1.583 1.713 5.000 1.466 1.556 1.686
5.000 1.930 2.020 2.150 4.875 1.847 1.937 2.067
4.875 2.328 2.418 2.548 4.750 2.384 2.474 2.604

 

 

Mortgage Rates

 

 

30 Yr. Fixed Rate
7.05% +0.00%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 7.05% 0.00 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.46% -0.01 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.46% +0.01 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.32% -0.01 0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM 6.87% 0.00 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.48% +0.02 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/31

 

 

15 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.46% -0.01%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.95% -0.01 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.12% -0.04 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/30

 

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.07 0.62
15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.02 0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% -0.07 0.50
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/22

 

MBS / Treasuries

 

 

UMBS 30YR 5.5
98.83 -0.11

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5 98.83 -0.11
UMBS 6.0 100.75 -0.04
GNMA 5.5 99.30 -0.15
GNMA 6.0 100.87 -0.06
Pricing as of: 1/31 7:57PM EST

 

 

10 Year US Treasury
4.5367 +0.0214

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.207 +0.000
5 YR Treasury 4.323 -0.002
7 YR Treasury 4.432 +0.016
10 YR Treasury 4.537 +0.021
30 YR Treasury 4.788 +0.027
Pricing as of: 1/31 7:57PM EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area Last quarter 2 qtrs ago 1 year ago 3 yrs ago 5 yrs ago Custom Period See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL 1.83% 4.92% 7.19% 27.35% 44.10% Tracking Tool Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Home price changes for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL

Metro Area Last quarter 2 qtrs ago 1 year ago 3 yrs ago 5 yrs ago Custom Period See Mortgage Rates
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL -2.54% -1.28% -3.05% 31.57% 72.08% Tracking Tool Shop refinance rates for North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL