Magazyn Kieszeń (540) 02.08.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 February Coupon is down -12 BPS at 3:20 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! (well, jobs Friday anyway) You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) in January were 143K versus estimates of 170K.

NFP in December were revised higher from 256K to 307K.

NFP in November were revised higher from 212K to 261K.

The rolling three month average is now 237K.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Earning’s Rate increased by 17 cents to $35.87.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM increased by 0.5% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY increased by 4.1% versus estimates of 3.8%.

Unemployment:

The January Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.0% versus estimates of 4.1%.

The Participation Rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate remained at 7.5%.

Epic Fail: The Year-over Year change in total Non Farm Payrolls were revised lower from 2.9M down to 2.346M, the largest revision lower since 2009 and is on top of the previous downward revision of 832K which already happened in 2024.

Consumer Sentiment: The prelim Feb UofM Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 67.8 versus Jan’s final reading of 71.1. 1 year inflation expectations moved upward from 3.3% to 4.3%

January jobs less than in Dec, wages increased, unemployment rate at 4.0% down from 4.1% the last two months. The benchmark revisions by BLS originally said 818K less jobs that were reported monthly, revised lower to 589K, the revisions use household surveys and census updates while the monthly NFP jobs data comes from businesses.

The final University of Michigan January consumer sentiment, expectations and confidence indexes all declined over inflation worries, tariffs, generally the swiftness President Trump has taken on many fronts. The media focused on the report as to why US interest rates edged higher today; the fact is, the 10 year note had increased 5 bps on employment data at 8:30 am and has not increased since the University of Michigan sentiment index was released at 10:00 am.

Next Week’s Calendar: No reports on Monday or Tuesday but Tuesday Treasury sell $58B of 3 year notes. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, $42B of new 10 year notes, January CPI, January Treasury budget. Thursday weekly jobless claims, January PPI, $25B of new 30-year bonds. Friday January retail sales, January import and export prices, January industrial production and capacity utilization, Decemeber business inventories.

This Week: 10 year note this week -5 bps, the 2 year note +7 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon unchanged this week. The DJIA this week-242, NASDAQ -104, S&P -15. Gold increased $60.00 this week, crude oil -$1.38. Bitcoin took a hit-5,806. The dollar edged a little lower, the index down 0.45.

The 10 held a key level today, not increasing over 4.50%. Treasury auctions and inflation data next week. We will lock some and float a small, long position because the note held the pivot point at 4.50%.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.49% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.35% +6 bp

2 year note: 4.30% +7 bp

30 year bond: 4.69% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.80 -18 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.53 -19 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.86 -14 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 151.39 -0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0326 -$0.0059

Dollar Index: 108.09 +0.40

Gold: $2,885.50 +$8.90

Bitcoin: 95,947 -947

Crude Oil: $70.99 +$0.38

DJIA: 44,303.40 -444.23

NASDAQ: 19,523.40 -268.59

S&P 500: 6025.99 -57.58

SOFR Data 02/07: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.32927, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.47811, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.80934, INDEX: 1.18018715

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,488.16	+27.71	+1.13%	+10.21%	+6.00%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	89,150.13	+774.01	+0.88%	+8.47%	+12.18%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,164.83	+30.95	+0.99%	+9.54%	+8.67%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0328	-0.0055	-0.53%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	151.4100	0.0000	0.00%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2402	-0.0033	-0.27%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6274	-0.0009	-0.14%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4293	-0.0015	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9099	0.0049	+0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN	20.5638	0.1077	+0.53%	4:59 P

USD-CZK	24.3331	0.1687	+0.70%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	29.1693	0.1558	+0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0606	0.0262	+0.65%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	392.3700	2.5900	+0.66%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	97.0000	0.1965	+0.20%	4:57 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.03% +0.03%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.03%	+0.03	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.42%	+0.05	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.39%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.31%	+0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.81%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.41%	+0.01	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/7

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.42% +0.05%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.89%	-0.06	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.05%	-0.07	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/6

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.02%	-0.07	0.62
15 Yr. Fixed	6.45%	+0.02	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.98%	-0.07	0.50
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/22

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5

98.96 -0.24

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5	98.96	-0.24
UMBS 6.0	100.81	-0.18
GNMA 5.5	99.48	-0.20
GNMA 6.0	100.87	-0.07
Pricing as of: 2/7 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.4917 +0.0510

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.287	+0.074
5 YR Treasury	4.343	+0.068
7 YR Treasury	4.417	+0.062
10 YR Treasury	4.492	+0.051
30 YR Treasury	4.691	+0.055
Pricing as of: 2/7 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.000

-5.000

-4.910

-4.780

7.875

-4.768

-4.678

-4.548

7.875

-4.664

-4.574

-4.444

7.750

-4.311

-4.221

-4.091

7.750

-4.247

-4.157

-4.027

7.625

-3.979

-3.889

-3.759

7.625

-3.869

-3.779

-3.649

7.500

-3.412

-3.322

-3.192

7.500

-3.463

-3.373

-3.243

7.375

-3.040

-2.950

-2.820

7.375

-3.077

-2.987

-2.857

7.250

-2.589

-2.499

-2.369

7.250

-2.616

-2.526

-2.396

7.125

-2.257

-2.167

-2.037

7.125

-2.366

-2.276

-2.146

6.999

-1.493

-1.403

-1.273

6.999

-2.075

-1.985

-1.855

6.875

-1.530

-1.440

-1.310

6.875

-1.612

-1.522

-1.392

6.750

-1.073

-0.983

-0.853

6.750

-1.062

-0.972

-0.842

6.625

-1.217

-1.127

-0.997

6.625

-1.016

-0.926

-0.796

6.500

-0.892

-0.802

-0.672

6.500

-0.677

-0.587

-0.457

6.375

-0.421

-0.331

-0.201

6.375

-0.110

-0.020

0.110

6.250

0.054

0.144

0.274

6.250

0.555

0.645

0.775

6.125

0.191

0.281

0.411

6.125

0.614

0.704

0.834

5.999

0.638

0.728

0.858

5.999

1.086

1.176

1.306

5.875

1.108

1.198

1.328

5.875

1.769

1.859

1.989

5.750

1.606

1.696

1.826

5.750

2.528

2.618

2.748

5.625

2.286

2.376

2.506

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.795	-3.705	-3.575	7.000	-3.530	-3.440	-3.310
7.000	-3.559	-3.469	-3.339	6.875	-3.285	-3.195	-3.065
6.875	-3.303	-3.213	-3.083	6.750	-2.852	-2.762	-2.632
6.750	-2.870	-2.780	-2.650	6.625	-2.930	-2.840	-2.710
6.625	-2.879	-2.789	-2.659	6.500	-2.671	-2.581	-2.451
6.500	-2.608	-2.518	-2.388	6.375	-2.399	-2.309	-2.179
6.375	-2.324	-2.234	-2.104	6.250	-1.950	-1.860	-1.730
6.250	-1.875	-1.785	-1.655	6.125	-2.023	-1.933	-1.803
6.125	-1.913	-1.823	-1.693	6.000	-1.722	-1.632	-1.502
6.000	-1.597	-1.507	-1.377	5.875	-1.395	-1.305	-1.175
5.875	-1.257	-1.167	-1.037	5.750	-0.912	-0.822	-0.692
5.750	-0.775	-0.685	-0.555	5.625	-0.435	-0.345	-0.215
5.625	-0.296	-0.206	-0.076	5.500	-0.193	-0.103	0.027
5.500	0.116	0.206	0.336	5.375	0.174	0.264	0.394
5.375	0.499	0.589	0.719	5.250	0.680	0.770	0.900
5.250	1.005	1.095	1.225	5.125	1.094	1.184	1.314
5.125	1.447	1.537	1.667	5.000	1.438	1.528	1.658
5.000	1.902	1.992	2.122	4.875	1.819	1.909	2.039
4.875	2.300	2.390	2.520	4.750	2.354	2.444	2.574

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	1.83%	4.92%	7.19%	27.35%	44.10%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL