Magazyn Kieszeń (542) 02.22.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 March Coupon is up +35 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Bat S*** Crazy: The U.S. and global stock markets cratered and bonds rallied on the safe-haven play after the news out of Wuhan (yes, that Wuhan) that they discovered a new and potentially pandemic COVID strain that they say has already jumped from different types of animals (bats to minks for example). This is the sole reason why MBS traded so far above our resistance level.

Taking it to the House: January Existing Home Sales dipped to 4.08M versus December’s pace of 4.29M units.

Consumer Sentiment: We the UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for February and it tanked from 67.8 down to 64.7. The 1 year inflation expectations remained at 4.3% but the medium term (5 to 10 year) expectations increased to 3.5% which is a 30 year high with Democrats expecting inflation of 5.1% in 1 year and Republicans expecting 3.7%.

Rosie the Riveter: Feb Preliminary Flash S&P Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 versus estimates of 53.0 but Services PMI increased to 51.6 versus estimates of 51.5.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged again today with the final monthly readings; even weaker than the indexes were two weeks ago. The stock market hit hard, the long end of the yield declined and the 10 fell to its lowest level since Feb 5 and below the key 4.50% (4.42% -9 bp).

Consumers very worried about the outlook and all of Trump’s executive orders that have a long way to go to meet his goals. Consumer sentiment for the US was revised sharply lower to 64.7 in February 2025 from a preliminary of 67.8, reaching the lowest level since November 2023. The gauge for current economic conditions was also revised lower to 65.7 from 68.7 and the expectations subindex was revised down to 64 from 67.3.

Another boost for lower rates, Treasury Sec Bessent made it clear he has no intentions of issuing more 10 year notes, adding to the demand. Less of anything means higher prices (lower rates) so investors are stepping up their buying.

The median price for existing home sales inched 1.9% lower from the previous month to $396,000. In the meantime, inventory of unsold housing grew to 3.9 months of supply at the current sales pace from 3.7 months of supply in December. From the previous year, existing home sales were 2% higher.

Next Week’s Calendar. The PCE inflation report is the headliner next Friday. No data Monday. Tuesday Dec Case/Shiller home price index, February Consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, January new home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 GDP second look, January durable goods orders, January pending home sales. Friday January personal income and spending, January PCE inflation, Feb Chicago purchasing managers index.

This Week’s data: 10 year note yield this week -6 bps, the 2 year note -6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +27 bps. The DJIA this week -1,117, NASDAQ -503, S&P -102. Gold increased $55.00 this week, crude oil +$0.32. The dollar index generally flat -0.14. Bitcoin took a hit, much of it today, ending the week -2,762.

MBS price +20 bps on the session but just 5 bps better than at 10 am.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.42% -9 bp

5 year note: 4.27% -8 bp

2 year note: 4.21% -8 bp

30 year bond: 4.67% -8 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.13 +20 bp (+5 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.78 +16 bp (+8 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.95 +8 bp (unch from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 149.13 -0.49 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0460 -$0.0042

Dollar Index: 106.61 +0.24

Gold: $2950.00 -$6.10

Bitcoin: 95,234 -3264

Crude Oil: $70.28 -$2.29

DJIA: 43,428.02 -748.63

NASDAQ: 19,524.01 -438.36

&P 500: 6013.13 -104.39

SOFR Data 02/21: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35201, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.44036, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.73074, INDEX: 1.18218045

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,618.17	+4.41	+0.17%	+12.23%	+8.57%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	93,117.50	+159.07	+0.17%	+10.30%	+14.38%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,330.77	+6.97	+0.21%	+11.85%	+11.19%	11:15 AM

 

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0460	-0.0041	-0.39%	4:53 PM
USD-JPY	149.3400	-0.3000	-0.20%	4:53 PM
GBP-USD	1.2630	-0.0039	-0.31%	4:53 PM
AUD-USD	0.6357	-0.0043	-0.67%	4:53 PM
USD-CAD	1.4233	0.0058	+0.41%	4:53 PM
USD-CHF	0.8979	0.0000	0.00%	4:53 P
USD-MXN	20.4175	0.0997	+0.49%	4:54 P

 

 

USD-CZK	23.9657	0.1049	+0.44%	4:55 PM
USD-SKK	28.8009	0.1133	+0.39%	4:55 PM
USD-PLN	3.9780	0.0153	+0.39%	4:55 PM
USD-HUF	385.5800	2.5300	+0.66%	4:55 PM
USD-RUB	88.5000	-0.2238	-0.25%	4:54 PM

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.89% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.37% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.22% -0.08 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.88% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.28% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/21 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.37% -0.04%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.85% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/20   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% -0.02 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.04 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.03% +0.07 0.53 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/19

MBS / Treasuries

10 Year US Treasury 4.4303 -0.0765   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.201 -0.074 5 YR Treasury 4.270 -0.077 7 YR Treasury 4.354 -0.077 10 YR Treasury 4.430 -0.077 30 YR Treasury 4.680 -0.073   ELITE  21-30 YEAR  ELITE  16-20 YEAR  RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY 8.000 -5.149 -5.059 -4.929 7.875 -4.886 -4.796 -4.666 7.875 -4.803 -4.713 -4.583 7.750 -4.424 -4.334 -4.204 7.750 -4.375 -4.285 -4.155 7.625 -4.029 -3.939 -3.809 7.625 -3.948 -3.858 -3.728 7.500 -3.610 -3.520 -3.390 7.500 -3.690 -3.600 -3.470 7.375 -3.221 -3.131 -3.001 7.375 -3.292 -3.202 -3.072 7.250 -2.765 -2.675 -2.545 7.250 -2.817 -2.727 -2.597 7.125 -2.584 -2.494 -2.364 7.125 -2.755 -2.665 -2.535 6.999 -1.841 -1.751 -1.621 6.999 -2.455 -2.365 -2.235 6.875 -1.849 -1.759 -1.629 6.875 -1.974 -1.884 -1.754 6.750 -1.387 -1.297 -1.167 6.750 -1.410 -1.320 -1.190 6.625 -1.701 -1.611 -1.481 6.625 -1.506 -1.416 -1.286 6.500 -1.234 -1.144 -1.014 6.500 -1.142 -1.052 -0.922 6.375 -0.820 -0.730 -0.600 6.375 -0.531 -0.441 -0.311 6.250 -0.336 -0.246 -0.116 6.250 0.137 0.227 0.357 6.125 -0.349 -0.259 -0.129 6.125 0.111 0.201 0.331 5.999 0.120 0.210 0.340 5.999 0.590 0.680 0.810 5.875 0.634 0.724 0.854 5.875 1.300 1.390 1.520 5.750 1.164 1.254 1.384 5.750 2.077 2.167 2.297 5.625 1.834 1.924 2.054 ELITE 11-15 YEAR  ELITE  8-10 YEAR  RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY 7.125 -3.973 -3.883 -3.753 7.000 -3.711 -3.621 -3.491 7.000 -3.742 -3.652 -3.522 6.875 -3.467 -3.377 -3.247 6.875 -3.486 -3.396 -3.266 6.750 -3.029 -2.939 -2.809 6.750 -3.047 -2.957 -2.827 6.625 -3.097 -3.007 -2.877 6.625 -3.049 -2.959 -2.829 6.500 -2.858 -2.768 -2.638 6.500 -2.796 -2.706 -2.576 6.375 -2.583 -2.493 -2.363 6.375 -2.508 -2.418 -2.288 6.250 -2.129 -2.039 -1.909 6.250 -2.054 -1.964 -1.834 6.125 -2.264 -2.174 -2.044 6.125 -2.156 -2.066 -1.936 6.000 -1.972 -1.882 -1.752 6.000 -1.851 -1.761 -1.631 5.875 -1.653 -1.563 -1.433 5.875 -1.515 -1.425 -1.295 5.750 -1.165 -1.075 -0.945 5.750 -1.027 -0.937 -0.807 5.625 -1.012 -0.922 -0.792 5.625 -0.718 -0.628 -0.498 5.500 -0.677 -0.587 -0.457 5.500 -0.369 -0.279 -0.149 5.375 -0.308 -0.218 -0.088 5.375 0.017 0.107 0.237 5.250 0.202 0.292 0.422 5.250 0.527 0.617 0.747 5.125 0.554 0.644 0.774 5.125 0.973 1.063 1.193 5.000 0.921 1.011 1.141 5.000 1.384 1.474 1.604 4.875 1.310 1.400 1.530 4.875 1.791 1.881 2.011 4.750 1.847 1.937 2.067     Pricing as of: 2/21 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL Metro Area Last quarter 2 qtrs ago 1 year ago 3 yrs ago 5 yrs ago Custom Period See Mortgage Rates Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL 1.83% 4.92% 7.19% 27.35% 44.10% Tracking Tool Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL