Magazyn Kieszeń (543) 02.22.2025

Market Wrap-up

Inflation Nation: January Headline PCE increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis which matched December’s pace and expectations. YOY, it increased by 2.5% which is a tenth lower than December but matched expectations. Core (ex food and energy) PCE also increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis which was higher than December’s pace. YOY, it was up 2.6% which matched forecasts but December was revised higher from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Its Personal: Personal Incomes shot up by 0.9% which was 3X higher than estimates of 0.3%. The real story in this data dump is Personal Spending contracted by -0.2% versus estimates of 0.1%.

Rosie the Riveter: We will get the bellwether Chicago PMI at 9:45 am ET, it is expected to be in the 40.6 range.

This morning’s January inflation report was as expected, year/year inflation declined in January. Through all this week interest rates fell each day, driven by the belief inflation improved.

Ukraine Pres Zelensky visited the White House, expected to sign a rare earth mineral deal with Trump as he works his way through getting the war to stop. There was no deal signed and the meeting with Zelensky turned into a shouting match with Trump and JD Vance accusing Zelensky of possibly starting WW III. Never saw such a meeting, check it out on the news tonight.

Next Week’s Calendar. Monday Feb ISM manufacturing index, January construction spending. Nothing on Tuesday. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications (should so improvement), ADP will report its February private jobs, Feb ISM service sector index, January factory orders. Thursday weekly jobless claims, January trade balance, Q4 productivity and unit labor costs. Friday is the focus this week with February employment report, also Friday January consumer credit.

This Week: The 10 year note declined 21 bps, the 2 year note fell 21 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon price increased 45 bps. The DJIA this week +413, NASDAQ -677, S&P -59. Gold hit hard on the dollar’s strength. Crude oil -$0.30. Bitcoin took a huge hit this week, down 11,444. The dollar index increased 1.02 a big improvement.

The 10 yield declined 10 bps this week, the 2 year note yield fell 21 bps. We floated all week and now want to lighten up and book nice gains. We have technical resistance at 4.20%.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.20% -7 bp

5 year note: 4.02% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.40% -6 bp

30 year bond: 4.50% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.58 +7 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 103.01 +4 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.35 +3 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 150.50 +0.68 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0366 -$0.0031

Dollar Index: 107.63 +0.38

Gold: $2,859.40 -$36.50

Bitcoin: 83,790 +393

Crude Oil: $69.98 -$0.37

DJIA: 43,840.72 +601.22

NASDAQ: 18,847.28 +302.86

S&P 500: 5954.43 +92.87

SOFR Data 02/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35268, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.42184, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.69118, INDEX: 1.18317839

Poland

Name	Value				Net Change				% Change				1 Month	1 Year				Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,579.52				-10.54				-0.41%				+5.99%	+6.39%				11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	91,996.38				-383.83				-0.42%				+5.30%	+12.27%				11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,281.69				-11.83				-0.36%				+6.11%	+8.68%				11:15 AM
WALUTY				Value		Change				Net Change							Time (EST)
EUR-USD				1.0375		-0.0023				-0.22%							4:59 PM
USD-JPY				150.6300		0.8200				+0.55%							4:59 PM
GBP-USD				1.2577		-0.0024				-0.19%							4:59 PM
AUD-USD				0.6209		-0.0027				-0.43%							4:59 PM
USD-CAD				1.4461		0.0024				+0.17%							4:59 PM
USD-CHF				0.9031		0.0034				+0.38%							4:59 PM
USD-CZK		24.1555					0.1176				+0.49%				4:59 PM
USD-SKK		29.0357					0.0630				+0.22%				4:59 PM
USD-PLN		4.0416					0.0372				+0.93%				4:59 PM
USD-HUF		387.9700					2.7500				+0.71%				4:59 PM
USD-RUB		89.4569					1.7568				+2.00%				12:09 P
USD-MXN			20.5511					0.0646				+0.32%				4:59 PM

 POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR							ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.750	-4.409		-4.319		-4.189		7.625		-4.108		-4.018		-3.888
7.625	-4.033		-3.943		-3.813		7.500		-3.804		-3.714		-3.584
7.500	-3.773		-3.683		-3.553		7.375		-3.423		-3.333		-3.203
7.375	-3.410		-3.320		-3.190		7.250		-2.969		-2.879		-2.749
7.250	-2.965		-2.875		-2.745		7.125		-2.914		-2.824		-2.694
7.125	-2.956		-2.866		-2.736		6.999		-2.271		-2.181		-2.051
6.999	-2.675		-2.585		-2.455		6.875		-2.208		-2.118		-1.988
6.875	-2.231		-2.141		-2.011		6.750		-1.748		-1.658		-1.528
6.750	-1.697		-1.607		-1.477		6.625		-2.222		-2.132		-2.002
6.625	-1.866		-1.776		-1.646		6.500		-1.767		-1.677		-1.547
6.500	-1.529		-1.439		-1.309		6.375		-1.377		-1.287		-1.157
6.375	-1.012		-0.922		-0.792		6.250		-0.897		-0.807		-0.677
6.250	-0.367		-0.277		-0.147		6.125		-1.115		-1.025		-0.895
6.125	-0.561		-0.471		-0.341		5.999		-0.674		-0.584		-0.454
5.999	-0.102		-0.012		0.118		5.875		-0.163		-0.073		0.057
5.875	0.565		0.655		0.785		5.750		0.367		0.457		0.587
5.750	1.310		1.400		1.530		5.625		1.046		1.136		1.266
5.625	1.386		1.476		1.606		5.500		1.562		1.652		1.782
5.500	1.966		2.056		2.186		5.375		2.067		2.157		2.287
ELITE 11-15 YEAR								ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.750		-3.049		-2.959		-2.829		6.500		-2.929		-2.839		-2.709
6.625		-3.122		-3.032		-2.902		6.375		-2.652		-2.562		-2.432
6.500		-2.867		-2.777		-2.647		6.250		-2.211		-2.121		-1.991
6.375		-2.577		-2.487		-2.357		6.125		-2.450		-2.360		-2.230
6.250		-2.136		-2.046		-1.916		6.000		-2.164		-2.074		-1.944
6.125		-2.342		-2.252		-2.122		5.875		-1.844		-1.754		-1.624
6.000		-2.042		-1.952		-1.822		5.750		-1.369		-1.279		-1.149
5.875		-1.706		-1.616		-1.486		5.625		-1.418		-1.328		-1.198
5.750		-1.231		-1.141		-1.011		5.500		-1.089		-0.999		-0.869
5.625		-1.125		-1.035		-0.905		5.375		-0.723		-0.633		-0.503
5.500		-0.781		-0.691		-0.561		5.250		-0.226		-0.136		-0.006
5.375		-0.398		-0.308		-0.178		5.125		-0.012		0.078		0.208
5.250		0.099		0.189		0.319		5.000		0.374		0.464		0.594
5.125		0.433		0.523		0.653		4.875		0.762		0.852		0.982
5.000		0.838		0.928		1.058		4.750		1.289		1.379		1.509
4.875		1.243		1.333		1.463		4.625		0.994		1.084		1.214
4.750		1.770		1.860		1.990		4.500		1.433		1.523		1.653
4.625		1.623		1.713		1.843		4.375		1.858		1.948		2.078
4.500		2.082		2.172		2.302		4.250		2.407		2.497		2.627

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	0.05%	1.94%	6.77%	24.90%	43.67%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.74% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.74% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.22% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.12% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.05% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.25% -0.34 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.15% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.22% -0.03%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.76% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.94% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/27   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% -0.02 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.04 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.03% +0.07 0.53 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/19

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.08 +0.12   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.08 +0.12 UMBS 6.0 101.59 +0.06 GNMA 5.5 100.23 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 101.34 +0.02 Pricing as of: 2/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2073 -0.0536   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.985 -0.068 5 YR Treasury 4.011 -0.065 7 YR Treasury 4.112 -0.061 10 YR Treasury 4.207 -0.054 30 YR Treasury 4.492 -0.039 Pricing as of: 2/28 5:31PM EST