Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 March Coupon is up just +3 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Medium Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
Feb Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 151K versus estimates of 160K.
Jan NFP was revised lower from 143K down to 125K.
Dec NFP was revised higher from 307K to 323K.
The rolling 3 month average is now 199K.
Wages:
The Average Hourly Wage increased by 10 cents to $35.93.
MOM Average Hourly Earnings were up 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.
YOY Average Hourly Earnings increased by 4.0% versus estimates of 4.1%, January was 3.9%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate moved higher from 4.0% to 4.1%.
The U6 Underemployment Rate moved higher from 7.5% to 8.0%.
Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 62.6% to 62.4%.
The Talking Fed: Fed Chair Powell made it clear that the Fed was waiting on “greater clarity” on Trump policies before being able to move on rates one way or the other. Here is the exact quote: “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
Consumer Credit: The January Consumer Credit Change was higher than expected, $18.08B versus estimates of $14.5B.
What stocks do these days; the interest rates market follow. This morning the stock indexes began weaker, interest rates declined; this afternoon stocks flipped higher, and interest rates increased. February employment data at 8:30 am ET showed less jobs than estimates at 151K compared 170K forecasts. A sharp increase in the U6 unemployment rate household survey, (to 8.0% from 7.5%) to a level not seen since late 2021.
Jerome Powell said the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates. The White House “is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” he said in a speech for the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy”… ” We do not need to be in a hurry and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity”… “Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery.”
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who was not at the forum, said in a speech delivered today in Portugal that she sees “important upside risks for inflation” and said that “it could be appropriate to continue holding the policy rate at its current level for some time.”
Consumers based on the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Conference Board consumer confidence both saw big declines in optimism recently.
The January consumer credit increased by $18.08B in January, following a downwardly revised increase of $37.05B from $40.8B in December 2024, and exceeding market expectations of $14.5B. It resulted in a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 4.3% for consumer credit. Revolving credit experienced a robust annual increase of 8.2%, while nonrevolving credit grew at a more modest annual rate of 3.0% The data suggests strong consumer borrowing activity, particularly in revolving credit.
Next Week’s Calendar features inflation measurements. Nothing scheduled on Monday. Tuesday Feb NFIB small business optimism index, January JOLTS job openings, $58B 3 year note auction. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Feb CPI, Feb Treasury budget balance, $39B 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, February PPI, $22B 30 year bond auction. Friday University of Michigan monthly preliminary consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The year note yield increased 10 bps, the 2 year note increased 1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week down just 2 bps in price. The DJIA -1,040, NASDAQ -651, S&P -184. Gold +$57.00 this week, crude oil declined $2.95. The dollar plunged, the index declined 3.61, one of the biggest declines in months, prompting a few to question the dollar’s roll as the reserve currency. Bitcoin took a major fall a week ago, this week the coin increased 3,202.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.32% +4 bp
5 year note: 4.10% +4 bp
2 year note: 4.00% +4 bp
30 year bond: 4.62% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.43 -4 bp (-20 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.96 -5 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.32 +1 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 147.91 -0.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0846 +$0.0059
Dollar Index: 103.82 -0.25
Gold: $2,915.60 -$11.00
Bitcoin: 86,992 -2034
Crude Oil: $67.03 +$0.67
DJIA: 42,801.65 +222.57
NASDAQ: 18,196.22 +126.97
S&P 500: 5770.20 +31.68
SOFR Data 03/07: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35235, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.40252, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.65231, INDEX: 1.18418177
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,642.59 | +3.67 | +0.14% | +6.21% | +13.11% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
93,611.81 | +166.85 | +0.18% | +5.00% | +17.19% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,347.30 | +3.93 | +0.12% | +5.77% | +14.77% |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0833 | 0.0048 | +0.45% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
148.0400 | 0.0600 | +0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2920 | 0.0038 | +0.29% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6305 | -0.0028 | -0.44% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.4372 | 0.0076 | +0.53% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8799 | -0.0041 | -0.46% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
20.2544 | -0.0360 | -0.18% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
23.0290 | -0.1881 | -0.81% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.8094 | -0.1241 | -0.44% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8500 | -0.0222 | -0.57% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
367.4000 | -2.9000 | -0.78% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
90.0000 | 1.0000 | +1.12% |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.750 | -4.554 | -4.464 | -4.334 | 7.625 | -4.253 | -4.163 | -4.033 |
| 7.625 | -4.100 | -4.010 | -3.880 | 7.500 | -3.852 | -3.762 | -3.632 |
| 7.500 | -3.820 | -3.730 | -3.600 | 7.375 | -3.471 | -3.381 | -3.251 |
| 7.375 | -3.458 | -3.368 | -3.238 | 7.250 | -3.017 | -2.927 | -2.797 |
| 7.250 | -3.012 | -2.922 | -2.792 | 7.125 | -2.833 | -2.743 | -2.613 |
| 7.125 | -2.875 | -2.785 | -2.655 | 6.999 | -2.190 | -2.100 | -1.970 |
| 6.999 | -2.594 | -2.504 | -2.374 | 6.875 | -2.127 | -2.037 | -1.907 |
| 6.875 | -2.150 | -2.060 | -1.930 | 6.750 | -1.667 | -1.577 | -1.447 |
| 6.750 | -1.616 | -1.526 | -1.396 | 6.625 | -2.035 | -1.945 | -1.815 |
| 6.625 | -1.679 | -1.589 | -1.459 | 6.500 | -1.580 | -1.490 | -1.360 |
| 6.500 | -1.342 | -1.252 | -1.122 | 6.375 | -1.190 | -1.100 | -0.970 |
| 6.375 | -0.825 | -0.735 | -0.605 | 6.250 | -0.710 | -0.620 | -0.490 |
| 6.250 | -0.180 | -0.090 | 0.040 | 6.125 | -0.854 | -0.764 | -0.634 |
| 6.125 | -0.300 | -0.210 | -0.080 | 5.999 | -0.413 | -0.323 | -0.193 |
| 5.999 | 0.159 | 0.249 | 0.379 | 5.875 | 0.098 | 0.188 | 0.318 |
| 5.875 | 0.826 | 0.916 | 1.046 | 5.750 | 0.628 | 0.718 | 0.848 |
| 5.750 | 1.571 | 1.661 | 1.791 | 5.625 | 1.307 | 1.397 | 1.527 |
| 5.625 | 1.690 | 1.780 | 1.910 | 5.500 | 1.866 | 1.956 | 2.086 |
| 5.500 | 2.270 | 2.360 | 2.490 | 5.375 | 2.370 | 2.460 | 2.590 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.750 | -3.128 | -3.038 | -2.908 | 6.500 | -3.010 | -2.920 | -2.790 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.625 | -3.203 | -3.113 | -2.983 | 6.375 | -2.734 | -2.644 | -2.514 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.500 | -2.948 | -2.858 | -2.728 | 6.250 | -2.292 | -2.202 | -2.072 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.375 | -2.659 | -2.569 | -2.439 | 6.125 | -2.347 | -2.257 | -2.127 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.250 | -2.217 | -2.127 | -1.997 | 6.000 | -2.060 | -1.970 | -1.840 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.125 | -2.238 | -2.148 | -2.018 | 5.875 | -1.740 | -1.650 | -1.520 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6.000 | -1.938 | -1.848 | -1.718 | 5.750 | -1.265 | -1.175 | -1.045 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.875 | -1.602 | -1.512 | -1.382 | 5.625 | -1.349 | -1.259 | -1.129 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.750 | -1.127 | -1.037 | -0.907 | 5.500 | -1.020 | -0.930 | -0.800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.625 | -1.056 | -0.966 | -0.836 | 5.375 | -0.654 | -0.564 | -0.434 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.500 | -0.712 | -0.622 | -0.492 | 5.250 | -0.157 | -0.067 | 0.063 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.375 | -0.329 | -0.239 | -0.109 | 5.125 | 0.165 | 0.255 | 0.385 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.250 | 0.168 | 0.258 | 0.388 | 5.000 | 0.551 | 0.641 | 0.771 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.125 | 0.583 | 0.673 | 0.803 | 4.875 | 0.939 | 1.029 | 1.159 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5.000 | 1.014 | 1.104 | 1.234 | 4.750 | 1.466 | 1.556 | 1.686 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.875 | 1.420 | 1.510 | 1.640 | 4.625 | 1.269 | 1.359 | 1.489 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.750 | 1.947 | 2.037 | 2.167 | 4.500 | 1.709 | 1.799 | 1.929 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.625 | 1.899 | 1.989 | 2.119 | 4.375 | 2.134 | 2.224 | 2.354 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4.500 | 2.357 | 2.447 | 2.577 | 4.250 | 2.683 | 2.773 | 2.903 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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