Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 April Coupon is down -6 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.
Glass Half Empty: The Preliminary March UofM Consumer Sentiment Index cratered from 64.7 down to 57.9 as inflation expectations moved upward from 3.5% to 3.9%.
Not much change in interest rates today, although yields increased 4 bps this morning and sat there the remainder of the day. Stock indexes ending the week with gains in the key indexes. The mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index saw another decline in sentiment, expectations and current conditions driven by the Trump tariffs and DOGE cuts. Corporate executives voicing increasing concern about the slowing economic growth leading consumers’ worries, employment still strong but slowing; CEOs are now grappling with how to handle new hurdles like on-again, off-again tariffs, mass government layoffs and worsening consumer sentiment. Beside the sentiment index this morning, last week the Conference Board’s consumer confidence also declined, the biggest decline since August 2021. The FOMC statement coming next Wednesday will be more of the same from the Fed, there won’t be any cuts in rates now or until this fall, if at all. The Fed can’t do much about the present economic and political situations.
Markets collectively didn’t think much about the inflation decline in CPI and PPI this week, had the indexes showed an increase in inflation you can bet markets would have reacted negatively. The February PCE inflation report, a week after next is what matters. Lots of angst over the recent fall in stocks, as we noted three weeks ago technicals were extremely overbought and a pull back was anticipated, what wasn’t in the cards was how quick and deep the selling has been. President Trump’s willingness to upend relationships with the U.S.’ biggest trade partners could further tip stocks into a bear market. What’s clear, at least, is that volatility will continue to be the norm. JP Morgan’s take on what is driving stocks lower, not particularly recession, likely driver, “In our mind the most likely culprits are equity hedge funds and in particular two categories: Equity Quant hedge funds and Equity TMT Sector hedge funds,” strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note to clients. Provisional data of monthly reporting hedge funds imply a big drop in the equity beta of these two types of hedge funds in February versus January pointing to position reduction.
S&P 500 Index this year
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday March Empire state manufacturing index, February retail sales, March NAHB housing market index, January business inventories. Tuesday FOMC meeting begin, February housing starts and permits, Feb imports and export prices, Feb industrial production and capacity utilization. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, FOMC policy decision. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March Philadelphia Fed business index, Feb existing home sales, February leading economic indicators. No data on Friday.
This Week: The 10 year note unchanged on the week; the 2 year note rate increased 3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week lost 16 bps. The DJIA -1314, NASDAQ -442, S&P -131. Crude oil generally flat, +$0.19, Gold this week increased $75.00. The dollar also flat, -0.10; bitcoin increased 2,336.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.32% +5 bp
5 year note: 4.10% +7 bp
2 year note: 4.03% +5 bp
30 year bond: 4.62% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.27 -10 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.79 -6 bp (-3 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.30 -11 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 148.58 +0.77 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0882 +$0.0028
Dollar Index: 103.72 -0.11
Gold: $2,991.50 +$0.20
Bitcoin: 84,656 +4520
Crude Oil: $67.22 +0.67
DJIA: 41,488 .19 +674.62
NASDAQ: 17,754.09 +451.07
S&P 500: 5638.94 +117.42
SOFR Data 03/14: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34733, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37972, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.61230, INDEX: 1.18517811
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,754.38 | +71.33 | +2.66% | +6.93% | +14.18% | 12:15 PM |
| WIG:IND
|
97,045.25 | +2,089.96 | +2.20% | +5.73% | +18.65% | 12:15 PM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,485.99 | +86.62 | +2.55% | +5.47% | +19.24% | 12:15 PM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0879 | 0.0027 | +0.25% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
148.6400 | 0.8300 | +0.56% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2935 | -0.0017 | -0.13% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6324 | 0.0039 | +0.62% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.4366 | -0.0073 | -0.51% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8851 | 0.0026 | +0.29% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.9318 | -0.1544 | -0.77% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.9985 | -0.0749 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.6923 | -0.0675 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8415 | -0.0154 | -0.40% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
366.8700 | -1.3600 | -0.37% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
85.5000 | -0.7193 | -0.83% | 4:57 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.875 | -4.817 | -4.727 | -4.597 | 7.750 | -4.487 | -4.397 | -4.267 |
| 7.750 | -4.400 | -4.310 | -4.180 | 7.625 | -4.096 | -4.006 | -3.876 |
| 7.625 | -3.963 | -3.873 | -3.743 | 7.500 | -3.730 | -3.640 | -3.510 |
| 7.500 | -3.704 | -3.614 | -3.484 | 7.375 | -3.353 | -3.263 | -3.133 |
| 7.375 | -3.344 | -3.254 | -3.124 | 7.250 | -2.903 | -2.813 | -2.683 |
| 7.250 | -2.900 | -2.810 | -2.680 | 7.125 | -2.738 | -2.648 | -2.518 |
| 7.125 | -2.781 | -2.691 | -2.561 | 6.999 | -2.115 | -2.025 | -1.895 |
| 6.999 | -2.499 | -2.409 | -2.279 | 6.875 | -2.035 | -1.945 | -1.815 |
| 6.875 | -2.062 | -1.972 | -1.842 | 6.750 | -1.580 | -1.490 | -1.360 |
| 6.750 | -1.540 | -1.450 | -1.320 | 6.625 | -1.911 | -1.821 | -1.691 |
| 6.625 | -1.541 | -1.451 | -1.321 | 6.500 | -1.447 | -1.357 | -1.227 |
| 6.500 | -1.202 | -1.112 | -0.982 | 6.375 | -1.061 | -0.971 | -0.841 |
| 6.375 | -0.694 | -0.604 | -0.474 | 6.250 | -0.580 | -0.490 | -0.360 |
| 6.250 | -0.052 | 0.038 | 0.168 | 6.125 | -0.693 | -0.603 | -0.473 |
| 6.125 | -0.138 | -0.048 | 0.082 | 5.999 | -0.255 | -0.165 | -0.035 |
| 5.999 | 0.323 | 0.413 | 0.543 | 5.875 | 0.255 | 0.345 | 0.475 |
| 5.875 | 0.987 | 1.077 | 1.207 | 5.750 | 0.785 | 0.875 | 1.005 |
| 5.750 | 1.730 | 1.820 | 1.950 | 5.625 | 1.463 | 1.553 | 1.683 |
| 5.625 | 2.011 | 2.101 | 2.231 | 5.500 | 2.175 | 2.265 | 2.395 |
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Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 0.05% | 1.94% | 6.77% | 24.90% | 43.67% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Napeville-Evanston, I |