Magazyn Kieszeń (546) 03.22.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 April Coupon is down -7 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

The Talking Fed: NY Fed President Williams said “It’s hard to know with any precision how the economy will evolve,” and that “Uncertainty is high, and there are many scenarios that could play out, depending on fiscal and trade policies and geopolitical and other developments.”

There were no domestic economic releases today.

The long end of the curve edged higher today. This morning the 10 at 4.22% -2 bps, stock indexes began weaker the DJIA down 400 points this morning. By the afternoon, the indexes recovered pushing the long end of the curve higher. At the present level of the key 10 year note, unable to break below 4.20% (that has been the case since mid-Dec) it takes very little for traders to back off long positions on the note. Harping on 4.20% for the 10 year note may be annoying to some, we talk about it regularly but it is what it is. The short end of the curve today did decline a little.

A lot of attention this week about the Fed, the FOMC meeting and Powell presser. There are members of the FOMC and policy members that exhibit their outlook for rate cuts, known as the dot-plots; based on that there may be two rate cuts from the Fed this year. Whether there are cuts coming is to be seen however, unlike previous rate cuts over the last 18 months future cuts in themselves won’t influence the long end as they did previously. The major driver at the long end is safety and re-balancing portfolios, less in stocks and more in government safe havens. Since December the 10 year note yield has fallen from4.80% to 4.24% now; all driven by the Trump presidency and his policies on tariffs and what impact they will have on the US and global economies and inflation.

More tariffs coming on April 2nd. Trump referring to the date as “Liberation Day” Trump’s tariff threats could either turn out to be a negotiating tool or the start of a dramatic remaking in global trade relations.

Next week PCE inflation and two measurements of consumers. Monday March prelim S&P global manufacturing and services. Tuesday January Case/Shiller home price index, March consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, February new home sales. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, February durable goods orders. Thursday weekly jobless claims, final Q1 GDP, February pending home sales. Friday February PCE inflation, February personal income and spending, March final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note this week declined 7 bps; the 2 year note down 8 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon price increased 28 bps. The DJIA +497, NASDAQ +30, S&P +29. Gold this week +$34.00. Crude oil +$0.98. The dollar index gained a little +0.38. Bitcoin declined 823.

Since this morning, the rate market has latterly not moved. It was triple witching today in stocks, expirations of option contracts.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.25% +2 bp

5 year note: 4.00% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.95% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.59% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.55 -4 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 103.07 -9 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.33 +1 bp ( -1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 149.26 +0.48 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0818 -$0.0035

Dollar Index: 104.10 +0.25

Gold: $3,026.20 -$17.60

Bitcoin: 83,833 -296

Crude Oil: $68.20 +$0.13

DJIA: 41,985.26 +31.94

NASDAQ: 17,784.05 +92.43

S&P 500: 5667.55 +4.65

SOFR Data 03/21: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33969, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36254, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.57940, INDEX: 1.18616968

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,725.07	-28.16	-1.02%	+4.08%	+13.09%	12:15 PM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	96,891.25	-718.69	-0.74%	+6.12%	+19.63%	12:15 PM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,473.31	-29.65	-0.85%	+6.66%	+17.48%	12:15 PM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0818	-0.0033	-0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.3200	0.5400	+0.36%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2919	-0.0048	-0.37%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6273	-0.0030	-0.48%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4349	0.0024	+0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8828	0.0009	+0.10%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

20.2389

0.0859

+0.43%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.1111	0.0580	+0.25%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.8490	0.0869	+0.31%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.8764	0.0100	+0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	367.7700	0.3000	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	84.5094	-0.0315	-0.04%	4:58 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.72% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	6.72%	+0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.13%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.15%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.90%	0.00	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.32%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.17%	+0.03	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/21

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.13% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.67%	+0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.83%	+0.03	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/20

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.93%	-0.02	0.66
15 Yr. Fixed	6.31%	-0.04	0.70
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.03%	+0.07	0.53
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/19

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5

99.86 -0.03

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5	99.86	-0.03
UMBS 6.0	101.52	-0.04
GNMA 5.5	100.00	-0.07
GNMA 6.0	101.32	-0.03
Pricing as of: 3/21 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.2496 +0.0189

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	3.949	-0.017
5 YR Treasury	4.004	-0.008
7 YR Treasury	4.125	-0.002
10 YR Treasury	4.250	+0.019
30 YR Treasury	4.592	+0.040
Pricing as of: 3/21 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.750	-4.466	-4.376	-4.246	7.625	-4.273	-4.183	-4.053
7.625	-4.238	-4.148	-4.018	7.500	-4.014	-3.924	-3.794
7.500	-3.995	-3.905	-3.775	7.375	-3.616	-3.526	-3.396
7.375	-3.631	-3.541	-3.411	7.250	-3.178	-3.088	-2.958
7.250	-3.192	-3.102	-2.972	7.125	-2.967	-2.877	-2.747
7.125	-3.029	-2.939	-2.809	6.999	-2.404	-2.314	-2.184
6.999	-2.759	-2.669	-2.539	6.875	-2.258	-2.168	-2.038
6.875	-2.324	-2.234	-2.104	6.750	-1.815	-1.725	-1.595
6.750	-1.805	-1.715	-1.585	6.625	-2.234	-2.144	-2.014
6.625	-1.863	-1.773	-1.643	6.500	-1.754	-1.664	-1.534
6.500	-1.537	-1.447	-1.317	6.375	-1.361	-1.271	-1.141
6.375	-1.019	-0.929	-0.799	6.250	-0.874	-0.784	-0.654
6.250	-0.373	-0.283	-0.153	6.125	-1.092	-1.002	-0.872
6.125	-0.533	-0.443	-0.313	5.999	-0.654	-0.564	-0.434
5.999	-0.081	0.009	0.139	5.875	-0.139	-0.049	0.081
5.875	0.588	0.678	0.808	5.750	0.403	0.493	0.623
5.750	1.327	1.417	1.547	5.625	1.046	1.136	1.266
5.625	1.410	1.500	1.630	5.500	1.563	1.653	1.783
5.500	1.991	2.081	2.211	5.375	2.069	2.159	2.289