Magazyn Kieszeń (547) 03.29.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 April Coupon is up +40 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was a smidge higher than expected with Core (ex food and energy) PCE increasing by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and 2.8% versus 2.7% on a YOY basis. The headline PCE data matched expectations with a MOM increase of 0.3% and a YOY increase of 2.5%.

Incomes and Spending: Spending is a problem. While it was higher in Feb versus Jan (0.4%, -0.3%) was lower than expectations of 0.5% and significantly lower than the rise in Incomes. Personal Incomes shot up 0.8% which was double the market estimates of 0.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The March UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised even lower from 57.9 to 57.0.

Stock Crash: Long bonds benefited this afternoon from an over 700 point sell off in the DOW

As we say, stocks down, interest rates down. The stock indexes took a huge hit today, interest rates declined, the 10 year note yield fell 10 bps, MBS prices increased 22 bps.

Next Wednesday is “liberation day” according to Trump when he announces all the tariffs. Today’s inflation overall was slightly better although the core inflation was higher. Rate markets took their cue from stocks, coming inflation, slowing economy and another very weak consumer sentiment index this morning. Investors took cover in the safety of US treasuries today ahead of next week. The 10 year now back below its 25 day average. The sentiment indexes this morning, the highest outlook for long term inflation going back to 1993.

Bloomberg reporting: A gauge of credit market fear rose to a fresh seven-month high after economic reports suggested inflation is staying stubbornly high, adding to concerns about how tariffs will affect prices, while consumer spending is showing signs of weakness. The spread on the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index jumped as much as 0.0223 percentage point, or 2.23 basis points, on Friday, to 61.4 basis points. The index rises as perceived credit risk climbs, and reached its highest reading intraday since August.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said yesterday that it looks “inevitable” that tariffs will boost inflation, at least in the near term.

Next week’s Calendar: Monday March Chicago purchasing mgrs. index. Tuesday Feb construction spending, March ISM manufacturing index. Wednesday, liberation day, MBA mortgage applications, March ADP private jobs, Feb factory orders. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Feb US trade deficit, March ISM services index. Friday March employment data.

This Week: The 10 year note rate increased 1 bp, the 2 year note declined 3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week declined 7 bps. The DJIA-402, NASDAQ -461, S&P -87. Gold increased $87.00, crude oil up $0.94. Bitcoin gained 276, the dollar index generally unchanged +0.07.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.26% -10 bp

5 year note: 3.99% -10 bp

2 year note: 3.92% -8 bp

30 year bond: 4.64% -9 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.47 +23 bp (+17 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 103.11 +19 bp (+14 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.44 +16 bp (+12 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 149.87 -1.18 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0828 +$0.0024

Dollar Index: 104.03 -0.31

Gold: $3,113.20 +$22.30

Bitcoin: 83,557 -3378

Crude Oil: $69.14 -$0.78

DJIA: 41,583.90 -715.80

NASDAQ: 17,322.99 -481.04

S&P 500: 5580.94 -112.37

SOFR Data 03/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33568, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35749, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.55895, INDEX: 1.18716670

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,747.70	-32.34	-1.16%	+6.52%	+12.79%	12:15 PM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	97,819.38	-925.83	-0.94%	+6.33%	+18.22%	12:15 PM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,505.07	-36.81	-1.04%	+6.81%	+15.98%	12:15 P

WALUTY

Currency	Value		Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0828		0.0027	+0.25%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.8400		-1.2100	-0.80%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2940		-0.0009	-0.07%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6287		-0.0018	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4313		0.0008	+0.06%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8808		-0.0009	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN		20.3754	0.0752	+0.37%	4:59 P

 

 

USD-CZK	23.0479	-0.0626	-0.27%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.8214	-0.0698	-0.25%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.8626	-0.0102	-0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	371.3000	-0.3400	-0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	84.9501	0.4501	+0.53%	1:31 PM

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.79% -0.03%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.21% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.92% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.35% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.16% -0.08%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.65% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/27   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% -0.02 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.04 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.03% +0.07 0.53 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/19

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.81 +0.33   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.81 +0.33 UMBS 6.0 101.52 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 100.15 +0.28 GNMA 6.0 101.46 +0.16 Pricing as of: 3/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2480 -0.1140   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.904 -0.090 5 YR Treasury 3.973 -0.118 7 YR Treasury 4.106 -0.125 10 YR Treasury 4.248 -0.114 30 YR Treasury 4.630 -0.095 Pricing as of: 3/28 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.000	-5.076	-4.986	-4.856	7.750	-4.422	-4.332	-4.202
7.875	-4.753	-4.663	-4.533	7.625	-4.161	-4.071	-3.941
7.750	-4.350	-4.260	-4.130	7.500	-3.902	-3.812	-3.682
7.625	-4.133	-4.043	-3.913	7.375	-3.503	-3.413	-3.283
7.500	-3.891	-3.801	-3.671	7.250	-3.064	-2.974	-2.844
7.375	-3.524	-3.434	-3.304	7.125	-2.783	-2.693	-2.563
7.250	-3.081	-2.991	-2.861	6.999	-2.219	-2.129	-1.999
7.125	-2.851	-2.761	-2.631	6.875	-2.074	-1.984	-1.854
6.999	-2.583	-2.493	-2.363	6.750	-1.629	-1.539	-1.409
6.875	-2.143	-2.053	-1.923	6.625	-1.967	-1.877	-1.747
6.750	-1.621	-1.531	-1.401	6.500	-1.486	-1.396	-1.266
6.625	-1.605	-1.515	-1.385	6.375	-1.092	-1.002	-0.872
6.500	-1.284	-1.194	-1.064	6.250	-0.595	-0.505	-0.375
6.375	-0.739	-0.649	-0.519	6.125	-0.722	-0.632	-0.502
6.250	-0.105	-0.015	0.115	5.999	-0.281	-0.191	-0.061
6.125	-0.165	-0.075	0.055	5.875	0.237	0.327	0.457
5.999	0.289	0.379	0.509	5.750	0.779	0.869	0.999
5.875	0.963	1.053	1.183	5.625	1.437	1.527	1.657
5.750	1.705	1.795	1.925	5.500	2.054	2.144	2.274

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.750	-3.396	-3.306	-3.176	6.625	-3.320	-3.230	-3.100
6.625	-3.274	-3.184	-3.054	6.500	-3.084	-2.994	-2.864
6.500	-3.023	-2.933	-2.803	6.375	-2.823	-2.733	-2.603
6.375	-2.748	-2.658	-2.528	6.250	-2.385	-2.295	-2.165
6.250	-2.310	-2.220	-2.090	6.125	-2.399	-2.309	-2.179
6.125	-2.288	-2.198	-2.068	6.000	-2.146	-2.056	-1.926
6.000	-2.022	-1.932	-1.802	5.875	-1.867	-1.777	-1.647
5.875	-1.730	-1.640	-1.510	5.750	-1.396	-1.306	-1.176
5.750	-1.259	-1.169	-1.039	5.625	-1.347	-1.257	-1.127
5.625	-1.051	-0.961	-0.831	5.500	-1.042	-0.952	-0.822
5.500	-0.733	-0.643	-0.513	5.375	-0.695	-0.605	-0.475
5.375	-0.370	-0.280	-0.150	5.250	-0.203	-0.113	0.017
5.250	0.122	0.212	0.342	5.125	-0.003	0.087	0.217
5.125	0.444	0.534	0.664	5.000	0.381	0.471	0.601
5.000	0.844	0.934	1.064	4.875	0.753	0.843	0.973
4.875	1.235	1.325	1.455	4.750	1.274	1.364	1.494
4.750	1.755	1.845	1.975	4.625	1.002	1.092	1.222
4.625	1.634	1.724	1.854	4.500	1.429	1.519	1.649
4.500	2.079	2.169	2.299	4.375	1.846	1.936	2.066