Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 April Coupon is down -10 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
March Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were higher than expected, 228K versus estimates of 135K.
February NFP were revised lower from 151K down to 117K.
January NFP were revised lower from 125K down to 111K.
The rolling three month average is now 152K.
Wages:
The national Average Hourly Earnings rate increased by 9 cents to $36.00 per hour.
Average Hourly Earnings MOM increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings YOY increased by 3.8% versus estimates of 3.9%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate increased to 4.2% versus estimates of 4.1%-4.2%.
The U6 UnderEmployment Rate dropped from 8.0% to 7.9%.
Labor Force Participation increased from 62.4% to 62.5%.
The Talking Fed: Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that tariffs could raise inflation and lower growth but “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”
Mortgage markets rolled over this afternoon; the interest rate markets came off their low yields seen early this morning. What didn’t roll over, the stock indexes continued to sell right to the close, getting another blow when Powell let it be known the Fed isn’t thinking of cutting rates yet.
Trump shook markets to the core yesterday announcing many more, and much deeper cuts than were anticipated in markets. Last night China added to the shock by announcing 34% tariffs across the board for all US imports. Investors bailed on MBSs this afternoon, fears of re-pricing and moves into safe treasuries.
Powell this morning; The tariffs will increase inflation and lower growth but didn’t even lean to thinking about lower rates, as if cutting the Fed funds rate would have any meaningful results but to lower very short-term rates (1 year or less). “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy,” “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said in prepared remarks.
This is the beginning of a protracted level of negotiations between the US and most all other trading partners; Trump didn’t mis-lead, although most were caught off guard at the magnitude of the tariffs and how broad based they are; 180 countries.
Everything coming across the news platforms is how Wall Street didn’t consider tariffs as seriously as Trump laid out, focusing most attention on lower taxes and cutting regulations. Like lemmings, they all walked the same plank.
Next Week’s Calendar: Not as key as would be the case otherwise. Monday February consumer credit. Tuesday March NFIB small business optimism index, 3 year note auction. Wednesday February wholesale inventories, 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March Treasury budget, March CPI, 30 year bond auction. Friday March PPI inflation, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. With this week’s shocks the incoming data won’t carry the weight they usually do.
This Week: The 10-yield declined 26 bps, the 2 year note -25 bps, MBS prices +37 bps. The DJIA -1269, NASDAQ -735, S&P -507. Gold fell $64.00, crude oil fell $6.39 on OPEC production increase. Bitcoin gained 680.
Lack of demand for MBSs took prices from +30 bp this morning to unchanged this afternoon.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.00% -3 bps
5 year note: 3.72% -2 bps
2 year note: 3.67% -2 bps
30 year bond: 4.41% -7 bps
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.40 +4 bp (-24 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.80 -1 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.45 -16 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 146.94 +0.88 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0952 -$0.0103
Dollar Index: 103.01 +0.94
Gold: $3,048.90 -$73.90
Bitcoin: 84,237 +2314
Crude Oil: $62.75 -4.20
DJIA: 38,314.86 -2231.07
NASDAQ: 15,587.79 -962.82
S&P 500: 5074.08 -322.44
SOFR Data 04/04: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33769, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35301, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.53793, INDEX: 1.18817545
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,467.99 | -167.77 | -6.37% | -6.61% | -0.11% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
89,040.00 | -5,442.05 | -5.76% | -4.88% | +6.45% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,173.54 | -201.37 | -5.97% | -5.19% | +3.63% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0956 | -0.0096 | -0.87% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
146.9300 | 0.8700 | +0.60% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2887 | -0.0213 | -1.63% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6040 | -0.0289 | -4.57% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.4219 | 0.0122 | +0.87% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8608 | 0.0016 | +0.19% | 4:59 P |
| USD-MXN
|
20.4441 | 0.5041 | +2.53% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
23.0197 | 0.3357 | +1.48% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.4978 | 0.2401 | +0.88% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8889 | 0.0655 | +1.71% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
370.6700 | 5.8400 | +1.60% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
84.5000 | 0.5017 | +0.60% | 4:58 PM |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.741 | -3.651 | -3.521 | 7.375 | -3.458 | -3.368 | -3.238 |
| 7.375 | -3.398 | -3.308 | -3.178 | 7.250 | -3.019 | -2.929 | -2.799 |
| 7.250 | -2.980 | -2.890 | -2.760 | 7.125 | -2.903 | -2.813 | -2.683 |
| 7.125 | -2.849 | -2.759 | -2.629 | 6.999 | -2.351 | -2.261 | -2.131 |
| 6.999 | -2.587 | -2.497 | -2.367 | 6.875 | -2.204 | -2.114 | -1.984 |
| 6.875 | -2.185 | -2.095 | -1.965 | 6.750 | -1.786 | -1.696 | -1.566 |
| 6.750 | -1.695 | -1.605 | -1.475 | 6.625 | -2.358 | -2.268 | -2.138 |
| 6.625 | -1.843 | -1.753 | -1.623 | 6.500 | -1.887 | -1.797 | -1.667 |
| 6.500 | -1.503 | -1.413 | -1.283 | 6.375 | -1.516 | -1.426 | -1.296 |
| 6.375 | -1.012 | -0.922 | -0.792 | 6.250 | -1.018 | -0.928 | -0.798 |
| 6.250 | -0.449 | -0.359 | -0.229 | 6.125 | -1.402 | -1.312 | -1.182 |
| 6.125 | -0.742 | -0.652 | -0.522 | 5.999 | -0.985 | -0.895 | -0.765 |
| 5.999 | -0.299 | -0.209 | -0.079 | 5.875 | -0.475 | -0.385 | -0.255 |
| 5.875 | 0.323 | 0.413 | 0.543 | 5.750 | 0.065 | 0.155 | 0.285 |
| 5.750 | 1.030 | 1.120 | 1.250 | 5.625 | 0.564 | 0.654 | 0.784 |
| 5.625 | 0.980 | 1.070 | 1.200 | 5.500 | 1.070 | 1.160 | 1.290 |
| 5.500 | 1.524 | 1.614 | 1.744 | 5.375 | 1.563 | 1.653 | 1.783 |
| 5.375 | 2.267 | 2.357 | 2.487 | 5.250 | 2.140 | 2.230 | 2.360 |
| 5.250 | 3.049 | 3.139 | 3.269 | 5.125 | 2.844 | 2.934 | 3.064 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -2.994 | -2.904 | -2.774 | 6.500 | -3.055 | -2.965 | -2.835 |
| 6.375 | -2.717 | -2.627 | -2.497 | 6.375 | -2.792 | -2.702 | -2.572 |
| 6.250 | -2.290 | -2.200 | -2.070 | 6.250 | -2.365 | -2.275 | -2.145 |
| 6.125 | -2.404 | -2.314 | -2.184 | 6.125 | -2.515 | -2.425 | -2.295 |
| 6.000 | -2.136 | -2.046 | -1.916 | 6.000 | -2.260 | -2.170 | -2.040 |
| 5.875 | -1.852 | -1.762 | -1.632 | 5.875 | -1.990 | -1.900 | -1.770 |
| 5.750 | -1.398 | -1.308 | -1.178 | 5.750 | -1.535 | -1.445 | -1.315 |
| 5.625 | -1.393 | -1.303 | -1.173 | 5.625 | -1.688 | -1.598 | -1.468 |
| 5.500 | -1.072 | -0.982 | -0.852 | 5.500 | -1.382 | -1.292 | -1.162 |
| 5.375 | -0.713 | -0.623 | -0.493 | 5.375 | -1.038 | -0.948 | -0.818 |
| 5.250 | -0.236 | -0.146 | -0.016 | 5.250 | -0.561 | -0.471 | -0.341 |
| 5.125 | -0.107 | -0.017 | 0.113 | 5.125 | -0.554 | -0.464 | -0.334 |
| 5.000 | 0.291 | 0.381 | 0.511 | 5.000 | -0.172 | -0.082 | 0.048 |
| 4.875 | 0.680 | 0.770 | 0.900 | 4.875 | 0.199 | 0.289 | 0.419 |
| 4.750 | 1.189 | 1.279 | 1.409 | 4.750 | 0.708 | 0.798 | 0.928 |
| 4.625 | 1.069 | 1.159 | 1.289 | 4.625 | 0.437 | 0.527 | 0.657 |
| 4.500 | 1.511 | 1.601 | 1.731 | 4.500 | 0.860 | 0.950 | 1.080 |
| 4.375 | 1.942 | 2.032 | 2.162 | 4.375 | 1.274 | 1.364 | 1.494 |
| 4.250 | 2.479 | 2.569 | 2.699 | 4.250 | 1.810 | 1.900 | 2.030 |