Select Magazyn Kieszeń (549) 04.12.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 May Coupon is down -35 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: We got another round of lower than expected data with the March Producer Price Index (PPI). The headline number dropped by -0.4% versus estimates of +0.2% on a MOM basis and 2.7% versus 3.3% on a YOY basis. Core (ex food and energy PPI) dropped by -0.1% versus estimates of +0.3% MOM, and 3.3% versus estimates of 3.6% on a YOY basis.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary April UofM Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest level in 40 years with a reading of 50.8 versus estimates of 55.0. Inflation Expectations shot up to 6.7% over the next 12 months.

Tariffic: China increased their tariffs on U.S. Imports from 84% to 125% and said that they will completely ignore any further tariff hikes by the U.S. The White House said that they “may” be willing to push the “90 day pause” out further and that are optimistic that China wants a deal.

.PPI inflation today followed yesterday’s CPI, lower than forecasts, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index keeps falling, today the indexes were much weaker than forecasts as was CPI data. There was little initial reaction initially to both PPI and consumer sentiment. The dollar weakness, one component driving the resent increase in rates flipped about 11 am ET this morning. It was anything but calm in the bond and mortgage markets today, at about 11:30 am the 10 year caught a vacuum sending the note up to 4.60% +16 bps and the highest level going back to the beginning of the year, MBS prices fell from -33 bps to over -60 bps. It lasted for a short time before the note rapidly reversed and declined to 10 am levels as did MBSs. After weeks of the dollar declining, once again lower today. One strong reason for increase in US rates recently has been global investors shunning US debt due to Trump’s escalating trade war. Today’s action deserves keeping in mind as a possible blow off top in rates in the near term. The reason for interest rates and stock index action today, the weekend and uneasy about what may come out of the White House on tariffs.

The bid in treasuries helped the stock indexes reverse course and end higher today, the best weekly rally since 2023. Volatility in US financial markets has been extreme; today’s action was one of the highest volatile days in months. Volatility shows little signs of easing as concerns that President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade policy is not only shaking the global economy but threatening the US status as the world’s safe haven. The world is selling the dollar, particularly US debt.

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday April Empire State manufacturing index, March import an export prices. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, March retail sales, March industrial production and capacity utilization, Feb business inventories, April NAHB housing market index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March housing starts and permits, April Philadelphia Fed business index. Next Friday is Good Friday.

This Week: The 10 note yield increased 48 bps, the 2 year note +30 bps; MBS prices declined 147 bps. The DJIA +1,998, NASDAQ +836, S&P +289. Gold set new records this week up $99.00, crude oil -$126 for the week. The dollar continued to decline, the index -4.03 for the week. Bitcoin this week -478.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.48% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.15% +8 bp

2 year note: 3.97% +9 bp

30 year bond: 4.86% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.32 -24 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.21 -20 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.34 -21 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 143.65 -0.97 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1338 +$0.0137

Dollar Index: 99.98 -0.89

Gold: $3,248.40 +$70.90

Bitcoin: 83,759 +4179

Crude Oil: $61.49 +$1.42

DJIA: 40,212.71 +619.05

NASDAQ: 16,724.46 +337.14

S&P 500: 5363.36 +95.31

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,529.25	-24.32	-0.95%	-8.17%	+3.40%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	91,120.06	-570.79	-0.62%	-6.11%	+9.96%	11:15 AM

Name

Value

Net Change

% Change

1 Month

1 Year

Time (EDT)

WIG20:IND

WIG 20

2,529.25

-24.32

-0.95%

-8.17%

+3.40%

11:15 AM

WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

91,120.06

-570.79

-0.62%

-6.11%

+9.96%

11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1355	0.0154	+1.37%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	143.5400	-0.9100	-0.63%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3087	0.0117	+0.90%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6289	0.0065	+1.04%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3876	-0.0107	-0.77%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8148	-0.0093	-1.13%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

20.3264

-0.1463

-0.71%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	22.1286	-0.2689	-1.20%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.5296	-0.3661	-1.36%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.7758	-0.0283	-0.74%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	360.6600	-2.5900	-0.71%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	83.3334	-0.1666	-0.20%	4:58 PM

MORTGAGE MARKET

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.07% +0.10%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.07%	+0.10	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.48%	+0.08	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.50%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.20%	+0.11	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	7.12%	+0.67	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.52%	+0.07	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/11

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.48% +0.08%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.62%	-0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.82%	0.00	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/10

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.61%	-0.10	0.63
15 Yr. Fixed	5.93%	-0.11	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.65%	-0.11	0.42
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/9

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5

98.22 -0.15

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5	98.22	-0.15
UMBS 6.0	100.23	-0.18
GNMA 5.5	98.56	-0.55
GNMA 6.0	100.27	-0.28
Pricing as of: 4/11 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.4851 +0.0529

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	3.968	+0.094
5 YR Treasury	4.160	+0.086
7 YR Treasury	4.333	+0.086
10 YR Treasury	4.485	+0.053
30 YR Treasury	4.868	-0.021
Pricing as of: 4/11 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.125	-4.731	-4.641	-4.511	8.125	-4.892	-4.802	-4.672
8.000	-4.521	-4.431	-4.301	8.000	-4.666	-4.576	-4.446
7.875	-4.204	-4.114	-3.984	7.875	-4.300	-4.210	-4.080
7.750	-3.796	-3.706	-3.576	7.750	-3.851	-3.761	-3.631
7.625	-3.287	-3.197	-3.067	7.625	-3.372	-3.282	-3.152
7.500	-2.970	-2.880	-2.750	7.500	-2.964	-2.874	-2.744
7.375	-2.619	-2.529	-2.399	7.375	-2.592	-2.502	-2.372
7.250	-2.166	-2.076	-1.946	7.250	-2.152	-2.062	-1.932
7.125	-1.774	-1.684	-1.554	7.125	-1.994	-1.904	-1.774
6.999	-1.406	-1.316	-1.186	6.999	-1.341	-1.251	-1.121
6.875	-0.990	-0.900	-0.770	6.875	-1.195	-1.105	-0.975
6.750	-0.448	-0.358	-0.228	6.750	-0.776	-0.686	-0.556
6.625	-0.093	-0.003	0.127	6.625	-0.761	-0.671	-0.541
6.500	0.225	0.315	0.445	6.500	-0.308	-0.218	-0.088
6.375	0.758	0.848	0.978	6.375	0.083	0.173	0.303
6.250	1.417	1.507	1.637	6.250	0.580	0.670	0.800
6.125	1.528	1.618	1.748	6.125	0.662	0.752	0.882
5.999	1.989	2.079	2.209	5.999	1.088	1.178	1.308
5.875	2.671	2.761	2.891	5.875	1.605	1.695	1.825

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.310	-3.220	-3.090	7.125	-3.267	-3.177	-3.047
7.000	-3.097	-3.007	-2.877	7.000	-3.065	-2.975	-2.845
6.875	-2.851	-2.761	-2.631	6.875	-2.833	-2.743	-2.613
6.750	-2.439	-2.349	-2.219	6.750	-2.421	-2.331	-2.201
6.625	-2.407	-2.317	-2.187	6.625	-2.452	-2.362	-2.232
6.500	-2.157	-2.067	-1.937	6.500	-2.217	-2.127	-1.997
6.375	-1.883	-1.793	-1.663	6.375	-1.958	-1.868	-1.738
6.250	-1.454	-1.364	-1.234	6.250	-1.529	-1.439	-1.309
6.125	-1.172	-1.082	-0.952	6.125	-1.282	-1.192	-1.062
6.000	-0.902	-0.812	-0.682	6.000	-1.026	-0.936	-0.806
5.875	-0.609	-0.519	-0.389	5.875	-0.747	-0.657	-0.527
5.750	-0.147	-0.057	0.073	5.750	-0.284	-0.194	-0.064
5.625	0.347	0.437	0.567	5.625	0.122	0.212	0.342
5.500	0.650	0.740	0.870	5.500	0.340	0.430	0.560
5.375	1.009	1.099	1.229	5.375	0.684	0.774	0.904
5.250	1.498	1.588	1.718	5.250	1.173	1.263	1.393
5.125	2.024	2.114	2.244	5.125	1.658	1.748	1.878
5.000	2.387	2.477	2.607	5.000	1.924	2.014	2.144
4.875	2.783	2.873	3.003	4.875	2.302	2.392	2.522