Market Wrap-up
Taking it to the House: March New Housing Starts were much lighter than expected with 1.324M versus estimates of 1.420M. But Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.482M versus estimates of 1.450M.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to defy all logic and hard data from numerous sources as it dropped to 215K from 224K. Continuing Claims remain very elevated moving from 1.844M to 1.885M.
Rosie the Riveter: The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed confidence plummet down to -26.4 versus estimates of +2.0. In yet another example of inflation running high, their Prices Paid jumped from 48.3 to 51.0.
Central Bank Palooza: The European Central Bank cut their interest rate by 25BPs which was widely expected.
The Talking Fed: Today we will hear from NY Fed Pres Williams.
The bond market closed at 2 pm ET this afternoon, interest rates increased, the 10 year note 4.33% +5 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -18 bps.
Weekly jobless claims stronger than estimates this morning but continuing claims were higher.
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly plunged 11.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.324 million in March, the weakest in four months as rates increased and tariffs causing uncertainty in the construction area. Single-family housing starts were down 14.2% to 0.94 million and the starts for multi-unit buildings, with five or more units, were unchanged at 0.37 million.
The ECB cut its rates by 25 bps as was anticipated.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday March leading economic indicators. Wednesday weekly MBA applications, March new home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March durable goods orders, March existing home sales. Thursday University of Michigan final April consumer sentiment index.
Trump continues his bombastic remarks saying he can’t wait for Powell’s term to expire, and the Fed should lower rates now. He will not fire Powell although he continues to talk about it; Senator Warren doesn’t need to be riled. The outlook is bleak for the economy, more and more are expecting a recession, some thinking it may be worse than that. Until Trump can report hard tariffs agreements from major economies the unknown will keep rates high, the dollar weak and the stock market trading wildly.
Optimistic comments from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are indicating progress toward a trade deal with Japan, following meetings between the two countries. “Following yesterday’s meetings with Minister Ryosei Akazawa of Japan, I am glad that our discussions on trade are progressing in a highly satisfactory direction,” Bessent said in a post on X.
This week: The 10 year note yield declined 15 bps, the 2 year note declined 16 bps and FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased 61 bps. The DJIA this week -1,071, NASDAQ -439, S&P -80. The dollar index declined 0.63, bitcoin jumped 993. Gold increased $83.00, crude oil +$2.88.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.33% +5 bp
5 year note: 3.94% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.81% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.80% +7 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.93 -19 bp (-13 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.66 -17 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.68 -15 bp (-16 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 142.40 +0.51 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1379 -$0.0021
Dollar Index: 99.36 -0.01
Gold: $3,331.60 -$14.80
Bitcoin: 84,752 +412
Crude Oil: $64.37 +$1.90
DJIA: 39,142.11 -527.28
NASDAQ: 16,286.45 -2.71
S&P 500: 5282.70 +7.00
SOFR Data 04/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35006, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36164, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.50250, INDEX: 1.19004345
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,643.52 | +27.68 | +1.06% | -2.99% | +5.39% | 4/17/2025 |
| WIG:IND
|
95,165.00 | +1,028.30 | +1.09% | -1.78% | +12.67% | 4/17/2025 |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,394.96 | +37.12 | +1.11% | -2.26% | +9.45% | 4/17/2025 |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1393 | 0.0028 | +0.25% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
142.1800 | -0.2500 | -0.18% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3296 | 0.0030 | +0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6377 | -0.0013 | -0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3847 | 0.0006 | +0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8168 | -0.0028 | -0.34% | 4:59 P |
| USD-MXN
|
19.7189 | 0.0162 | +0.08% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.9578 | -0.0822 | -0.37% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.4422 | -0.0646 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7591 | -0.0047 | -0.12% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
357.9800 | -1.1400 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
81.8062 | -0.3063 | -0.37% | 8:02 AM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.125 | -5.100 | -5.010 | -4.880 | 8.000 | -5.068 | -4.978 | -4.848 |
| 8.000 | -4.882 | -4.792 | -4.662 | 7.875 | -4.704 | -4.614 | -4.484 |
| 7.875 | -4.579 | -4.489 | -4.359 | 7.750 | -4.252 | -4.162 | -4.032 |
| 7.750 | -4.176 | -4.086 | -3.956 | 7.625 | -3.833 | -3.743 | -3.613 |
| 7.625 | -3.734 | -3.644 | -3.514 | 7.500 | -3.571 | -3.481 | -3.351 |
| 7.500 | -3.493 | -3.403 | -3.273 | 7.375 | -3.186 | -3.096 | -2.966 |
| 7.375 | -3.133 | -3.043 | -2.913 | 7.250 | -2.755 | -2.665 | -2.535 |
| 7.250 | -2.700 | -2.610 | -2.480 | 7.125 | -2.350 | -2.260 | -2.130 |
| 7.125 | -2.212 | -2.122 | -1.992 | 6.999 | -1.781 | -1.691 | -1.561 |
| 6.999 | -1.946 | -1.856 | -1.726 | 6.875 | -1.660 | -1.570 | -1.440 |
| 6.875 | -1.525 | -1.435 | -1.305 | 6.750 | -1.223 | -1.133 | -1.003 |
| 6.750 | -1.010 | -0.920 | -0.790 | 6.625 | -1.119 | -1.029 | -0.899 |
| 6.625 | -0.739 | -0.649 | -0.519 | 6.500 | -0.684 | -0.594 | -0.464 |
| 6.500 | -0.416 | -0.326 | -0.196 | 6.375 | -0.295 | -0.205 | -0.075 |
| 6.375 | 0.091 | 0.181 | 0.311 | 6.250 | 0.175 | 0.265 | 0.395 |
| 6.250 | 0.705 | 0.795 | 0.925 | 6.125 | 0.475 | 0.565 | 0.695 |
| 6.125 | 0.846 | 0.936 | 1.066 | 5.999 | 0.905 | 0.995 | 1.125 |
| 5.999 | 1.294 | 1.384 | 1.514 | 5.875 | 1.402 | 1.492 | 1.622 |
| 5.875 | 1.953 | 2.043 | 2.173 | 5.750 | 1.924 | 2.014 | 2.144 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.125 | -3.637 | -3.547 | -3.417 | 6.750 | -2.746 | -2.656 | -2.526 |
| 7.000 | -3.422 | -3.332 | -3.202 | 6.625 | -2.638 | -2.548 | -2.418 |
| 6.875 | -3.178 | -3.088 | -2.958 | 6.500 | -2.383 | -2.293 | -2.163 |
| 6.750 | -2.765 | -2.675 | -2.545 | 6.375 | -2.112 | -2.022 | -1.892 |
| 6.625 | -2.563 | -2.473 | -2.343 | 6.250 | -1.683 | -1.593 | -1.463 |
| 6.500 | -2.308 | -2.218 | -2.088 | 6.125 | -1.771 | -1.681 | -1.551 |
| 6.375 | -2.037 | -1.947 | -1.817 | 6.000 | -1.513 | -1.423 | -1.293 |
| 6.250 | -1.608 | -1.518 | -1.388 | 5.875 | -1.218 | -1.128 | -0.998 |
| 6.125 | -1.509 | -1.419 | -1.289 | 5.750 | -0.755 | -0.665 | -0.535 |
| 6.000 | -1.250 | -1.160 | -1.030 | 5.625 | -0.655 | -0.565 | -0.435 |
| 5.875 | -0.956 | -0.866 | -0.736 | 5.500 | -0.339 | -0.249 | -0.119 |
| 5.750 | -0.493 | -0.403 | -0.273 | 5.375 | 0.012 | 0.102 | 0.232 |
| 5.625 | -0.160 | -0.070 | 0.060 | 5.250 | 0.497 | 0.587 | 0.717 |
| 5.500 | 0.174 | 0.264 | 0.394 | 5.125 | 0.825 | 0.915 | 1.045 |
| 5.375 | 0.524 | 0.614 | 0.744 | 5.000 | 1.141 | 1.231 | 1.361 |
| 5.250 | 1.010 | 1.100 | 1.230 | 4.875 | 1.535 | 1.625 | 1.755 |
| 5.125 | 1.400 | 1.490 | 1.620 | 4.750 | 2.050 | 2.140 | 2.270 |
| 5.000 | 1.716 | 1.806 | 1.936 | 4.625 | 1.803 | 1.893 | 2.023 |
| 4.875 | 2.110 | 2.200 | 2.330 | 4.500 | 2.255 | 2.345 | 2.475 |
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