Magazyn Kieszeń (551) 04.26.2025

Market Wrap-up

Consumer Sentiment: The bond market continues to debate the value of the “soft data” versus “hard data”. Soft Data like Consumer Confidence has been weak and has not translated into weaker Hard Data like Retail Sales and ISM Services yet. We will get the final/revised April UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10 am ET and it is expected be very low at 50.8.

Tariffic: The bond market is thawing today as news hits that China is willing to “exempt” some of the U.S. imports into China like medical equipment and industrial chemicals. Also, the White House says that there will “several” trade deals announced in the next 3 – 4 weeks.

The only data today, the final April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, month to mother consumers less optimistic. Some making a point that the sentiment index at 52.2 was better than two weeks ago when it was 50.5. See little reason that it makes any difference to bond traders. Economic data tis week didn’t have much other than weekly jobless claims that remain in a narrow range and not increasing much at all.

Both Trump and China blinked this week; Trump cooling is rhetoric and China saying it may consider suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals like ethane. Also discussing waiving the tariff for plane leases, as Chinese carriers pay leasing fees to third-party companies to use some jets. The US excluded electronics from its 145% tariff on Chinese imports earlier this month. Negotiations continuing with myriads of countries.

Next Week’s Calendar: unlike this week, the calendar is packed with key reports. Tuesday trade in goods in March, prelim wholesale inventories and prelim retail inventories, March JOLT job openings, April consumer confidence index. Wednesday MBA applications April ADP private jobs, Q1 advance GDP, Q1 employment cost index, March inflation PCE, personal income and spending, March pending home sales, April Chicago purchasing mgrs. index. Thursday weekly claims, April ISM manufacturing index, March construction spending. Friday April employment data, March factory orders.

This Week: a lot of volatility in interest rates this week but ending the week with little change, the 10 year yield declined 6 bps, the 2 year note down just 4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increased 32 bps. The DJIA +172, NASDAQ +97, S&P +242. Gold this week lost $22.00, crude oil declined $1.17. The dollar index increased slightly 0.22, the dollar selling is slowing; bitcoin increased 402.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.27% -6 bp

5 year note: 3.89% -5 bp

2 year note: 3.76% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.73% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.28 +16 bp (+8 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.93 +8 bp (unch from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.00 +16 bp (+5 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 143.55 +0.92 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1373 -$0.0018

Dollar Index: 99.48 +0.10

Gold: $3,310

Bitcoin: 95,239 +1617

Crude Oil: $63.20

DJIA: 40,113.50 +20.10

NASDAQ: 17,382.94 +216.90

S&P 500: 5525.21 +40.44

SOFR Data 04/25: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35135, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36199, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.47876, INDEX: 1.19118330

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,793.70	-3.59	-0.13%	-0.24%	+12.69%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	100,156.88	+41.62	+0.04%	+0.67%	+19.90%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,582.90	-0.18	0.00%	+0.41%	+18.53%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1365	-0.0025	-0.22%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	143.6700	1.0400	+0.73%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3315	-0.0027	-0.20%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6395	-0.0013	-0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3863	0.0010	+0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8284	0.0014	+0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN	19.5041	-0.0864	-0.44%	4:59 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	21.9655	0.0607	+0.28%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.5088	0.0601	+0.23%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.7595	0.0103	+0.27%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	356.9100	0.1700	+0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	82.5587	-0.5185	-0.62%	2:24 PM

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.84% -0.08%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.00% -0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.42% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.27% -0.10 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/25 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.25% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.94% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/24   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.90% +0.09 0.86 15 Yr. Fixed 6.20% +0.09 0.58 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% +0.06 0.45 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/23

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.53 +0.35   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.53 +0.35 UMBS 6.0 101.29 +0.20 GNMA 5.5 99.79 +0.34 GNMA 6.0 101.04 +0.16 Pricing as of: 4/25 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2536 -0.0671   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.757 -0.040 5 YR Treasury 3.876 -0.057 7 YR Treasury 4.058 -0.046 10 YR Treasury 4.254 -0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.718 -0.054 Pricing as of: 4/25 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.000	-5.032	-4.942	-4.812	7.750	-4.365	-4.275	-4.145
7.875	-4.708	-4.618	-4.488	7.625	-3.882	-3.792	-3.662
7.750	-4.309	-4.219	-4.089	7.500	-3.581	-3.491	-3.361
7.625	-3.796	-3.706	-3.576	7.375	-3.202	-3.112	-2.982
7.500	-3.582	-3.492	-3.362	7.250	-2.768	-2.678	-2.548
7.375	-3.193	-3.103	-2.973	7.125	-2.696	-2.606	-2.476
7.250	-2.777	-2.687	-2.557	6.999	-2.175	-2.085	-1.955
7.125	-2.497	-2.407	-2.277	6.875	-1.985	-1.895	-1.765
6.999	-2.232	-2.142	-2.012	6.750	-1.543	-1.453	-1.323
6.875	-1.791	-1.701	-1.571	6.625	-1.881	-1.791	-1.661
6.750	-1.261	-1.171	-1.041	6.500	-1.455	-1.365	-1.235
6.625	-1.062	-0.972	-0.842	6.375	-1.060	-0.970	-0.840
6.500	-0.720	-0.630	-0.500	6.250	-0.592	-0.502	-0.372
6.375	-0.206	-0.116	0.014	6.125	-0.485	-0.395	-0.265
6.250	0.426	0.516	0.646	5.999	-0.043	0.047	0.177
6.125	0.404	0.494	0.624	5.875	0.454	0.544	0.674
5.999	0.878	0.968	1.098	5.750	0.963	1.053	1.183
5.875	1.564	1.654	1.784	5.625	1.610	1.700	1.830
5.750	2.299	2.389	2.519	5.500	2.340	2.430	2.560

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.440	-3.350	-3.220	6.750	-2.737	-2.647	-2.517
6.875	-3.175	-3.085	-2.955	6.625	-2.722	-2.632	-2.502
6.750	-2.755	-2.665	-2.535	6.500	-2.465	-2.375	-2.245
6.625	-2.647	-2.557	-2.427	6.375	-2.190	-2.100	-1.970
6.500	-2.390	-2.300	-2.170	6.250	-1.764	-1.674	-1.544
6.375	-2.115	-2.025	-1.895	6.125	-1.879	-1.789	-1.659
6.250	-1.689	-1.599	-1.469	6.000	-1.612	-1.522	-1.392
6.125	-1.616	-1.526	-1.396	5.875	-1.307	-1.217	-1.087
6.000	-1.350	-1.260	-1.130	5.750	-0.846	-0.756	-0.626
5.875	-1.045	-0.955	-0.825	5.625	-0.858	-0.768	-0.638
5.750	-0.583	-0.493	-0.363	5.500	-0.518	-0.428	-0.298
5.625	-0.346	-0.256	-0.126	5.375	-0.148	-0.058	0.072
5.500	-0.006	0.084	0.214	5.250	0.330	0.420	0.550
5.375	0.365	0.455	0.585	5.125	0.471	0.561	0.691
5.250	0.842	0.932	1.062	5.000	0.884	0.974	1.104
5.125	1.046	1.136	1.266	4.875	1.278	1.368	1.498
5.000	1.459	1.549	1.679	4.750	1.794	1.884	2.014
4.875	1.853	1.943	2.073	4.625	1.523	1.613	1.743
4.750	2.369	2.459	2.589	4.500	1.983	2.073	2.203