Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 June Coupon is up +8 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Inflation Nation: The April Headline PCE matched market expectations with a MOM increase of 0.1% but was lighter on the YOY with 2.1% versus estimates of 2.2%. Core (ex food and energy) PCE also matched expectations MOM 0.1% however March was revised higher from 0.0% to 0.1%. YOY, it hit 2.5% which matched expectations but March was revised higher from 2.6% to 2.7%.
Incomes and Spending: The big surprise in this release was Personal Incomes which shot up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.3%, plus the prior month was revised higher from 0.5% to 0.7%. Personal Spending was right on trace with a 0.2% reading but that is a big drop from March’s pace of 0.7%.
Rosie the Riveter: The May Chicago PMI reading cratered down from 44.6 down to 40.5.
The Consumer: The 2nd reading of the May UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10 am. The Preliminary reading was 50.8 and it was revised upward to 52.2.
Geopolitical: Game on. Ok, so yesterday’s U.S. Court of International Trade’s ruling against the tariffs has been put on hold by a different court, so tariffs are still on as originally announced for the time being.
Interest rates worked lower this week; MBS prices increased. Markets navigated through a lot of key data and treasury buying, the three treasury auctions met with strong and aggressive demand. May consumer confidence index showed substantial improvement but, a confusing sentiment index today added more negativity driving consumers still increasing fear of the economic outlook worrying over tariffs. May inflation didn’t increase, three months in a row inflation didn’t increase, Q1 GDP -0.2% better than -0.3% on the first reading. April personal income climbed 0.8% against estimates of +0.3%, and revised from +0.5 to 0.7% in March. Weekly jobless claims were higher than estimates and continuing claims increased for the second week in a row. No increase in inflation will keep the Fed cool, no rate cuts for at least Sept. Tariffs continue to be dragged down from various court decisions. For those that tariffs can be eliminated are going to be disappointed, the consensus is inflation will increase, but the wide view of a recession has ebbed.
Interest rates today traded unchanged all morning, as the afternoon progressed rates edged lower on month-end positioning.
Next Week’s calendar: Monday May ISM manufacturing index, April construction spending. Tuesday April factory orders, April JOLTS job openings. Wednesday MBA mortgage apps, May ADP private jobs, May ISM service sector index, Fed Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, April US trade balance, Q1 productivity and unit labor cost. Friday May employment data, April consumer credit.
This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 12 bps this week, the 2 year note down 9 bps. MBS prices gained 52 bps. The DJIA +667, NASDAQ +377, S&P +109. Gold this week declined $43.00 on firmer dollar; crude oil quiet declined $0.99. The dollar firmed up; the Index Increased 0.24. Bitcoin bit the bullet declining 4,244.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.40% -3 bp
5 year note: 3.97% -4 bp
2 year note: 3.91% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.92% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.01 +16 bp (+10 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.68 +10 bp (+8 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.97 +14 bp (+10 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 144.00 -0.18 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1350 -$0.0018
Dollar Index: 99.36 +0.08
Gold: $3,318.40 -$25.70
Bitcoin: 104,732 -1002
Crude Oil: $60.79 -$0.15
DJIA: 42,270.07 +54.34
NASDAQ: 19,113.77 -62.11
S&P 500: 5911.69 -0.48
SOFR Data 05/30: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.31155, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34762, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.40762, INDEX: 1.19618422
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,771.86 | -14.10 | -0.51% | +1.24% | +12.50% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
101,476.06 | -478.82 | -0.47% | +2.79% | +18.41% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,581.42 | -18.90 | -0.52% | +1.60% | +15.50% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1347 | -0.0023 | -0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
144.0200 | -0.1900 | -0.13% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3459 | -0.0033 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6431 | -0.0011 | -0.17% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3739 | -0.0070 | -0.51% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8224 | -0.0006 | -0.07% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.4377 | 0.1153 | +0.60% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.9746 | 0.0481 | +0.22% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.5492 | 0.0524 | +0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7449 | 0.0130 | +0.35% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
355.9000 | 0.6600 | +0.19% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
77.5000 | 0.3424 | +0.44% | 4:58 P |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
30 LAT FIXED
| Rate | 15 Day | 30 Day | 45 Day | 60 Day |
| 5.990 | 99.238 | 99.209 | 99.170 | 99.135 |
| 6.000 | 99.281 | 99.251 | 99.213 | 99.177 |
| 6.125 | 99.779 | 99.750 | 99.712 | 99.677 |
| 6.250 | 100.257 | 100.218 | 100.179 | 100.149 |
| 6.375 | 100.751 | 100.712 | 100.672 | 100.638 |
| 6.490 | 101.174 | 101.134 | 101.092 | 101.057 |
| 6.500 | 101.211 | 101.171 | 101.129 | 101.094 |
| 6.625 | 101.652 | 101.611 | 101.567 | 101.531 |
| 6.750 | 102.006 | 101.950 | 101.912 | 101.856 |
| 6.875 | 102.423 | 102.366 | 102.325 | 102.268 |
| 6.990 | 102.782 | 102.724 | 102.680 | 102.622 |
| 7.000 | 102.814 | 102.756 | 102.712 | 102.653 |
| 7.125 | 103.191 | 103.132 | 103.083 | 103.024 |
| 7.250 | 103.521 | 103.462 | 103.404 | 103.345 |
| 7.375 | 103.816 | 103.772 | 103.711 | 103.637 |
| 7.490 | 104.159 | 104.114 | 104.051 | 103.977 |
| 7.500 | 104.189 | 104.144 | 104.081 | 104.006 |
| 7.625 | 104.530 | 104.470 | 104.405 | 104.327 |
15 LAT FIXED
| Rate | 15 Day | 30 Day | 45 Day | 60 Day |
| 5.250 | 99.944 | 99.917 | 99.886 | 99.856 |
| 5.375 | 100.321 | 100.286 | 100.245 | 100.205 |
| 5.490 | 100.647 | 100.611 | 100.570 | 100.530 |
| 5.500 | 100.675 | 100.639 | 100.599 | 100.558 |
| 5.625 | 101.058 | 101.030 | 100.988 | 100.969 |
| 5.750 | 101.439 | 101.412 | 101.372 | 101.348 |
| 5.875 | 101.738 | 101.711 | 101.671 | 101.645 |
| 5.990 | 102.011 | 101.984 | 101.941 | 101.914 |
| 6.000 | 102.035 | 102.008 | 101.965 | 101.938 |
| 6.125 | 102.350 | 102.276 | 102.244 | 102.184 |
| 6.250 | 102.679 | 102.609 | 102.574 | 102.510 |
| 6.375 | 102.964 | 102.894 | 102.857 | 102.792 |
| 6.490 | 103.110 | 103.041 | 103.004 | 102.938 |
| 6.500 | 103.123 | 103.054 | 103.017 | 102.951 |
| 6.625 | 103.264 | 103.204 | 103.131 | 103.058 |
| 6.750 | 103.384 | 103.350 | 103.301 | 103.238 |
| 6.875 | 103.652 | 103.618 | 103.567 | 103.502 |
| 6.990 | 103.853 | 103.818 | 103.766 | 103.701 |
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