Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 June Coupon is down -27 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
May Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were up 139K versus estimates of 126K to 130K.
April NFP were revised lower from 177K down to 147K.
March NFP were revised lower from 185K down to 120K.
The rolling 3 month average is now: 135K.
Wages:
The national Average Hourly Earning rate increased by 15 cents to $36.24.
MOM Average Hourly Earnings were up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.
YOY Average Hourly Earnings were up 3.9% versus estimates of 3.8%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate remained at 4.2%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate remained moved from 62.6% to 62.4%.
U6 Underemployment Rate remained at 7.8%.
Average Weekly Hours remained at 34.3.
Central Bank Palooza: The Reserve Bank of India shocked markets with a 50BPS cut versus an expected 25BPS cut.
May jobs stronger than forecasts sent interest rates higher today. There were suspicions that after ADP jobs on Wednesday dropped to just 37K against estimates of 110K that the BLS this morning would show lower job gains than forecasts. Estimates were NFP jobs +129K, reported at 139K. In a rate market that is very unstable and without solid convictions these days, the reaction increased the 10 year note to 4.51% +11 bps: MBS prices -32 bps. Technically the 10 has note been able to breach 4.40% on a close since April 22nd.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut at the July FOMC meeting had been reduced to 16.5% from 31.4% a day ago, while the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting has been slashed to 62.3% from 74.3% a day ago. The odds of a cut rotate on each key data point and shouldn’t be taken too seriously; next week we get inflation data.
Late this afternoon Trump announced the US and China will meet in London on Monday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday April wholesale inventories. Tuesday NFIB May small business optimism index, 3 year auction. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, May CPI, 10 year note auction, May Treasury budget. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May PPI, 30 year bond auction. Friday mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This Week; The 10 year note yield increased 11 bps this week, the 2 year note +14 bps. MBS prices down 32 bps. The DJIA this week +493, NASDAQ +416, S&P +88. The dollar generally unchanged, the index -0.19. Gold declined $52.00, crude oil gained $3.87. Bitcoin fell 442.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM1 bp
10 year note: 4.51% +11 bp
5 year note: 4.13% +12 bp
2 year note: 4.05% +12 bp
30 year bond: 4.97% +9 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.69 -31 bp (-17 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.52 -17 bp (-21 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.72 -25 bp (-17 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 144.7 +1.25 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1401 -$0.041
Dollar Index: 99.17 +0.43
Gold: $3,336.70 -$38.40
Bitcoin: 104,290 +2387
Crude Oil: $64.66 +$1.29
DJIA: 42,762.62 +442.88
NASDAQ: 19,529.95 +231.50
S&P 500: 6000.36 +61.06
SOFR Data 06/06: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.30352, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34560, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.39649, INDEX: 1.19719098
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,699.85 | -34.46 | -1.26% | -0.67% | +9.64% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
99,287.50 | -940.46 | -0.94% | +0.09% | +15.74% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,502.98 | -40.61 | -1.15% | -0.12% | +14.39% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1397 | -0.0048 | -0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
144.8500 | 1.3200 | +0.92% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3528 | -0.0042 | -0.31% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6490 | -0.0016 | -0.25% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3696 | 0.0021 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8223 | 0.0028 | +0.34% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.1130 | -0.0453 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.7573 | 0.0838 | +0.39% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.4352 | 0.1116 | +0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7620 | 0.0207 | +0.55% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
354.1600 | 2.0500 | +0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
78.9813 | 2.1133 | +2.75% | 2:08 P |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
30 YEARS FIXED
Rate 15 Day 30 Day 45 Day 60 Day
| 5.990 | 98.940 | 98.910 | 98.876 | 98.842 |
| 6.000 | 98.985 | 98.955 | 98.921 | 98.887 |
| 6.125 | 99.483 | 99.453 | 99.419 | 99.385 |
| 6.250 | 99.992 | 99.947 | 99.899 | 99.850 |
| 6.375 | 100.502 | 100.457 | 100.415 | 100.375 |
| 6.490 | 100.979 | 100.921 | 100.861 | 100.814 |
| 6.500 | 101.019 | 100.961 | 100.900 | 100.852 |
| 6.625 | 101.474 | 101.480 | 101.451 | 101.410 |
| 6.750 | 101.956 | 101.870 | 101.837 | 101.780 |
| 6.875 | 102.383 | 102.312 | 102.277 | 102.220 |
| 6.990 | 102.757 | 102.699 | 102.662 | 102.604 |
| 7.000 | 102.789 | 102.733 | 102.696 | 102.638 |
| 7.125 | 103.188 | 103.123 | 103.084 | 103.026 |
| 7.250 | 103.612 | 103.546 | 103.478 | 103.412 |
| 7.375 | 103.849 | 103.783 | 103.715 | 103.647 |
| 7.490 | 104.158 | 104.092 | 104.024 | 103.956 |
| 7.500 | 104.185 | 104.119 | 104.051 | 103.983 |
| 7.625 | 104.552 | 104.474 | 104.415 | 104.334 |
15 YEARS FIXED
| Rate | 15 Day | 30 Day | 45 Day | 60 Day |
| 5.250 | 99.725 | 99.692 | 99.655 | 99.617 |
| 5.375 | 100.108 | 100.075 | 100.038 | 100.001 |
| 5.490 | 100.434 | 100.401 | 100.364 | 100.327 |
| 5.500 | 100.463 | 100.430 | 100.392 | 100.355 |
| 5.625 | 100.848 | 100.818 | 100.790 | 100.762 |
| 5.750 | 101.233 | 101.214 | 101.186 | 101.158 |
| 5.875 | 101.540 | 101.531 | 101.503 | 101.474 |
| 5.990 | 101.817 | 101.819 | 101.787 | 101.759 |
| 6.000 | 101.841 | 101.844 | 101.812 | 101.784 |
| 6.125 | 102.208 | 102.134 | 102.099 | 102.038 |
| 6.250 | 102.541 | 102.481 | 102.443 | 102.380 |
| 6.375 | 102.830 | 102.777 | 102.739 | 102.675 |
| 6.490 | 102.979 | 102.931 | 102.890 | 102.827 |
| 6.500 | 102.992 | 102.945 | 102.904 | 102.840 |
| 6.625 | 103.243 | 103.204 | 103.145 | 103.101 |
| 6.750 | 103.487 | 103.455 | 103.399 | 103.351 |
| 6.875 | 103.759 | 103.733 | 103.675 | 103.627 |
| 6.990 | 103.963 | 103.941 | 103.885 | 103.835 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||