Magazyn Kieszeń (558) 06.14.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 July Coupon is down -12 BPS at 2:30 PM ET.

The Consumer: The preliminary June UofM Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 52.2 to 60.5, beating out estimates of 53.5. One year Inflation Expectations, which were 6.6% in May dropped to 5.1%.

Geopolitical: All of the headlines and oxygen were focused on Israel/Iran.

Israel attacked Iran; oil spiked, gold increased, stock indexes took a hit. Interest rates increased, safe havens in US treasuries overridden by increased inflation worries with energy prices climbing and expectations of more increases as well as loss of confidence in the US debt increases; “The world is losing confidence in the sovereign side of the U.S” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, in an interview with CNBC this morning. “If you are looking for safe-haven flows, you won’t find them in the Treasury market.” Iran responded to the attacks with little success, Israel says it will keep it up. Iran called off the attempted negotiations with the US. The attack killed several key Iranian generals in the nuclear business. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military operation would last “as many days as it takes.” (to cripple Iran’s bomb initiatives) Israel planned 14 days of operations, a senior Israeli official said. The mid-east boils but has never lasted long in the past.

Investors fear inflation will increase as the attacks continue, driving energy prices higher and keeping the Fed from lowering rates that may be wishful thinking in any case. This morning the June mid-month consumer sentiment gauge leaped higher than forecasts, it wasn’t even close to forecasts as consumers were settling in on tariff fears. The positive improvement in sentiment is old news now with today’s news.

Technically speaking, many times here we have said the bellwether 10 year note would have difficulty at 4.40%, it has closed below it twice over the last three weeks, yesterday at 4.36%. From a technical traders perspective, it remains a solid resistance no matter the prevailing fundamental situation.

Next Week’s calendar is rather light on key data compared to this week’s auctions and inflation data. The focus, the FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. The mid-east will also dominate. Monday June Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday may retail sales, May import and export prices, May capacity utilization and industrial production, April business inventories, June NAHB housing market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, May housing starts and permits. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday June Philadelphia Fed business index, May leading economic indicators.

This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 10 bps, the 2 year note -9 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +25 bps. The DJIA -565, NASDAQ -13, S&P -23. Gold increased $117.00 on haven buying, crude oil increased $8.71 most of it today. The dollar continued to weaken, the index down 1.00. Bitcoin improved 902.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.41% +5 bp (high today 4.50%)

5 year note: 4.02% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.96% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.90% +6 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.94 -20 bp (-8 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.76 -12 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.95 -17 bp (-8 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 143.91 +0.41 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1544 -$0.0041

Dollar Index: 98.17 +0.25

Gold: $3,453.30 +$50.90

Bitcoin: 105,192 -1635

Crude Oil: $73.37 +$5.33

DJIA: 42,197.79 -769.83

NASDAQ: 19,406.83 -255.66

S&P 500: 5976.97 -68.29

SOFR Data 06/13: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.30319, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34290, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.38338, INDEX: 1.19818895

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,707.86	-47.79	-1.73%	-4.96%	+12.75%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	99,364.88	-1,529.81	-1.52%	-4.71%	+18.71%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,505.79	-62.78	-1.76%	-4.75%	+16.22%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1549	-0.0035	-0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	144.0700	0.5900	+0.41%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3571	-0.0042	-0.31%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6487	-0.0046	-0.70%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3588	-0.0016	-0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8114	0.0012	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN	18.9583	0.0747	+0.40%	4:59 PM
USD-CZK	21.4771	0.0844	+0.39%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.0860	0.0789	+0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.6985	0.0151	+0.41%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	348.7900	2.2100	+0.64%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	80.0301	0.0301	+0.04%	11:53 AM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.89% +0.04%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.45% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.94% +0.09 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.42% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.47% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 6/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.16% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.97% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/12   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% +0.01 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% -0.09 0.66 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.93% +0.01 0.63 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/11

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.02 -0.27   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.02 -0.27 UMBS 6.0 100.95 -0.20 GNMA 5.5 99.43 -0.19 GNMA 6.0 101.00 -0.14 Pricing as of: 6/13 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4076 +0.0440   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.951 +0.041 5 YR Treasury 4.007 +0.037 7 YR Treasury 4.192 +0.041 10 YR Treasury 4.408 +0.044 30 YR Treasury 4.902 +0.056 Pricing as of: 6/13 5:31PM EST

 

Conventional 30Yr Fixed / 21-30Yr Amortization
Rate	15 Day	30 Day	45 Day	60 Day
5.990	99.729            99.713           99.683            99.652
6.000	99.774            99.757           99.727            99.697
6.125	100.267          100.251          100.220          100.190
6.250	100.656          100.624          100.578          100.533
6.375	101.160          101.129          101.083          101.037
6.490	101.578          101.547          101.501          101.456
6.500	101.614          101.583          101.537          101.491
6.625	102.116          102.039          102.010          101.944
6.750	102.370          102.318          102.279          102.207
6.875	102.799          102.734          102.692          102.620
6.990	103.159          103.082          103.041          102.968
7.000	103.191          103.113          103.071          102.998
7.125	103.570          103.522          103.447          103.371
7.250	104.040          104.004          103.878          103.752
7.375	104.267          104.229          104.081          103.934
7.490	104.567          104.529          104.381          104.234
7.500	104.594          104.555          104.408          104.260
7.625	105.102          104.937          104.825          104.670
Conventional 15Yr Fixed / 11-15Yr Amortization
Rate	15 Day	30 Day	45 Day	60 Day
5.250	100.232          100.179          100.156          100.136
5.375	100.481          100.446          100.400          100.354
5.490	100.807          100.772          100.726          100.680
5.500	100.835          100.801          100.755          100.708
5.625	101.215          101.173          101.161          101.131
5.750	101.691          101.640          101.623          101.594
5.875	101.921          101.863          101.845          101.815
5.990	102.205          102.142          102.125          102.095
6.000	102.229          102.166          102.150          102.120
6.125	102.554          102.495          102.457          102.391
6.250	102.852          102.786          102.748          102.682
6.375	103.080          103.009          102.968          102.902
6.490	103.277          103.201          103.162          103.095
6.500	103.294          103.218          103.179          103.112
6.625	103.441          103.403          103.343          103.297
6.750	103.688          103.644          103.586          103.536
6.875	103.962          103.911          103.852          103.800
6.990	104.168          104.110          104.052          103.999