Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 July Coupon is UNCHANGED at 3:00 PM ET.
Rosie the Riveter: The June Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey dropped by -4 which matched the same drop in May. Prices paid did see a little move off of their highs though.
The key 10 year note managed to close below 4.40%, just as I made a comment about it this morning. Rates were lower today on Fed governor Waller’s remarks that a rate cut may happen at the July meeting next month. Comments from Fed officials always get attention but from a Fed governor they carry a little bit more weight and Waller, appointed by Trump is expected to be in the mix to replace Powell next May. Waller saying the Trump’s tariffs on imported goods overblown; “I don’t think [the inflation impact of Trump’s tariffs] is going to be that big,” Waller said in an interview on CNBC. “I think we have room to bring [rates] down.”
U.K., France, and Germany diplomats are pushing for 11th-hour diplomacy with Iran in Geneva today. Nice but not important, it is in the US and Israeli hands, and both are 100% committed to stop Iran developing nukes. Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Friday that his country would “not stop” its attacks, “until Iran’s nuclear threat is dismantled,” Reuters reports. Every attempt to peacefully negotiate with Iran has met with Iran’s refusal, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei needs the bomb to keep control. Russia and China now voicing dire opinions about the situation. All said though so far, the US markets haven’t bit on the reality of a major escalation. Trump saying two weeks, that is plenty of time for something better to occur. Some of the B-2 bombers are in Diego Garcia since March, B-2s forward-deployed to the Indian Ocean Island are close but do they have the ability to drop 30,000-pound-class GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) precision-guided bunker buster bombs?
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday May existing home sales, Q1 current account balance. Tuesday April Case/Shiller home price index, June consumer confidence index, $69B 2 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, May new home sales, $70B 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May durable goods orders, final Q1 GDP, May pending home sales, $44B 7 year note auction. Friday May personal income and spending, May PCE inflation, final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The 10 year note this week -3 bp, the2 year note -5 bps; 6.0 FNMA 30 year coupon price +16 bps. The DJIA this week +7, NASDAQ +40, S&P -9. The dollar increased, the index at 98.73 +0.56, gold did what it does, fall when the dollar increases, down $69.00. Crude oil increased $1.63.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.39% -unch
5 year note: 3.97% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.91% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.90% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.10 +2 bp (+7 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.88 +2 bp (unch from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.99 +2 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 146.09 +0.63 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1526 +$0.0029
Dollar Index: 98.73 -0.17
Gold: $3,383.70 -$24.30
Bitcoin: 103,262 -1014
Crude Oil: $75.00 -$0.14
DJIA: 42,206.82 +35.16
NASDAQ: 19,447.41 -98.86
S&P 500: 5967.84 -13.03
SOFR Data 06/20: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.30217, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34200, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37594, INDEX: 1.19918873
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,735.44 | +12.29 | +0.45% | -2.17% | +9.51% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
100,405.88 | +465.46 | +0.47% | -2.08% | +16.01% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,548.42 | +14.14 | +0.40% | -1.83% | +13.67% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1523 | 0.0028 | +0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
146.0900 | 0.6400 | +0.44% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3451 | -0.0014 | -0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6452 | -0.0030 | -0.46% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3735 | 0.0035 | +0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8178 | 0.0010 | +0.12% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.1743 | 0.1379 | +0.72% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.5350 | -0.0311 | -0.14% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.1451 | -0.0625 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7033 | -0.0148 | -0.40% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
349.4400 | -1.3000 | -0.37% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
78.5000 | 0.0824 | +0.11% | 4:58 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
30 YEAR FIXED
Rate 15 Day 30 Day 45 Day 60 Day
| 5.990 | 99.527 | 99.504 | 99.473 | 99.442 |
| 6.000 | 99.571 | 99.548 | 99.517 | 99.486 |
| 6.125 | 100.081 | 100.059 | 100.028 | 99.996 |
| 6.250 | 100.461 | 100.427 | 100.388 | 100.349 |
| 6.375 | 100.970 | 100.936 | 100.897 | 100.858 |
| 6.490 | 101.394 | 101.360 | 101.321 | 101.282 |
| 6.500 | 101.430 | 101.396 | 101.357 | 101.318 |
| 6.625 | 101.920 | 101.872 | 101.832 | 101.773 |
| 6.750 | 102.274 | 102.220 | 102.176 | 102.095 |
| 6.875 | 102.708 | 102.652 | 102.599 | 102.518 |
| 6.990 | 103.071 | 103.013 | 102.955 | 102.873 |
| 7.000 | 103.103 | 103.045 | 102.986 | 102.904 |
| 7.125 | 103.520 | 103.467 | 103.397 | 103.327 |
| 7.250 | 104.238 | 104.148 | 103.984 | 103.820 |
| 7.375 | 104.472 | 104.382 | 104.218 | 104.054 |
| 7.490 | 104.786 | 104.695 | 104.531 | 104.367 |
| 7.500 | 104.813 | 104.723 | 104.559 | 104.395 |
| 7.625 | 105.133 | 105.042 | 104.878 | 104.714 |
15 YEAR FIXED
Rate 15 Day 30 Day 45 Day 60 Day
| 5.250 | 100.082 | 100.062 | 100.037 | 100.009 |
| 5.375 | 100.304 | 100.278 | 100.248 | 100.219 |
| 5.490 | 100.632 | 100.606 | 100.577 | 100.547 |
| 5.500 | 100.660 | 100.634 | 100.605 | 100.576 |
| 5.625 | 101.064 | 101.025 | 101.010 | 100.986 |
| 5.750 | 101.532 | 101.490 | 101.468 | 101.444 |
| 5.875 | 101.761 | 101.717 | 101.689 | 101.664 |
| 5.990 | 102.047 | 102.002 | 101.968 | 101.942 |
| 6.000 | 102.072 | 102.027 | 101.993 | 101.966 |
| 6.125 | 102.388 | 102.348 | 102.311 | 102.256 |
| 6.250 | 102.678 | 102.636 | 102.595 | 102.539 |
| 6.375 | 102.904 | 102.861 | 102.818 | 102.761 |
| 6.490 | 103.133 | 103.077 | 103.041 | 103.004 |
| 6.500 | 103.162 | 103.106 | 103.069 | 103.032 |
| 6.625 | 103.452 | 103.427 | 103.399 | 103.362 |
| 6.750 | 103.697 | 103.671 | 103.638 | 103.601 |
| 6.875 | 103.972 | 103.944 | 103.907 | 103.869 |
| 6.990 | 104.176 | 104.145 | 104.105 | 104.066 |
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