Market Wrap-up
Inflation Nation: The headline May PCE increased by 0.1% on a MOM basis which matched expectations but YOY, it grew by 2.3% versus April’s upwardly revised pace of 2.2%. Core (ex food and energy) PCE was double the market expectations on a MOM basis (0.2% versus estimates of 0.1%) and YOY it was up 2.7% versus estimates of 2.6%.
Incomes and Spending: May Personal Incomes tanked from 0.7% in April down to -0.4% in May versus estimates of +0.3%. Spending fell by -0.1% versus estimates of 0.1%.
The Consumer: The UofM’s final June Consumer Sentiment Index was revised from 60.5 to 60.7. 1 year Inflation Expectations dropped from 5.1% to 5.0% and 5 year Inflation Expectations moved from 4.1% to 4.0%.
Geopolitical: The “Big Beautiful Bill” is gaining some traction in the Senate after Treasury Sec Bessent told them to drop the “revenge tax”. On the trade front, Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed a U.S./China trade deal and said that there would be 10 more major trade deals announced soon. Trade talks have been put on hold with Canada as they will not seemingly budge from a huge digital services tax on all things coming out of the U.S.
A volatile day: interest rates opened higher MBSs lower on a slight increase in inflation when PCE data was reported, at mid-day interest rates fell and traded back to unchanged on the day, this afternoon rates increased again back to levels we had at 9:30 am ET this morning. The increase came at the moment when the Supreme Court limited federal judges from issuing universal injunctions, which had been used to block President Donald Trump from implementing his executive order ending birthright citizenship and increased focus on the decline in personal income and spending. The Supreme Court ruled that, “Universal injunctions likely exceed the equitable authority that Congress has given to federal courts.” About when that hit the 10 year had climbed back to unchanged on the day at 4.24%. The S&P and NASDAQ were at new highs.
Later President Trump surprised, ending all trade talks with Canada, accusing Canada of “copying the European Union” with the “egregious” tax. “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period,” Trump added. “We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country… We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The market reactions sent interest rates back to morning highs, ended the stock market rally, retreating from the record highs they had reached earlier in the day. But returned to end with new all time highs.
Trump also intimated the tax bill may not be completed by the 4th of July another poke in the eye for US financials.
Next Week’s calendar is headlined by June employment on Thursday; markets closed on Friday (4th of July) and early close on Thursday. Monday June Chicago purchasing managers index. Tuesday S&P Global US manufacturing index, June ISM manufacturing index, May JOLTS job openings. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, ADP June private jobs. Thursday June employment data, weekly claims, May US trade deficit, May factory orders, June ISM services sector index.
This Week: The 10 year note this week declined 10 bps, the 2 year note fell 16 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased 42 bps. The DJIA this week +1,612, NASDAQ +826, S&P +205. Gold fell $101.00 on less safety increases, crude oil declined $10.00. The dollar continued to decline, the dollar index fell 1.36 a big move, another big move, Bitcoin increased 3,533 this week.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.28% +4 bp
5 year note: 3.84% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.75% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.85% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.52 -20 b (-1 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 103.18 -8 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.34 -17 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 144.74 +0.34 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1705 +$0.0002
Dollar Index: 97.37 +0.22
Gold: $3,283.20 -$64.80
Bitcoin: 106,801 -779
Crude Oil: $65.10 -$0.14
DJIA: 43,819.27 +432.43
NASDAQ: 20,273.46 +105.55
S&P 500: 6173.10 +32.05
SOFR Data 06/27: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.31392, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34121, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37231, INDEX: 1.20019569
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,815.66 | +2.57 | +0.09% | +0.07% | +10.51% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
103,728.06 | +347.35 | +0.34% | +0.74% | +17.69% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,660.25 | +3.87 | +0.11% | +0.84% | +15.01% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1718 | 0.0017 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
144.6500 | 0.2300 | +0.16% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3716 | -0.0012 | -0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6529 | -0.0017 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3689 | 0.0045 | +0.33% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7990 | -0.0012 | -0.15% | 4:59 P |
| USD-MXN
|
18.8242 | -0.0603 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.1095 | -0.0544 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.7085 | -0.0391 | -0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6212 | -0.0039 | -0.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
340.6400 | -1.1300 | -0.33% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
78.6454 | 0.0163 | +0.02% | 11:50 A |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
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| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.625 | -3.508 | -3.418 | -3.288 |
| 6.500 | -3.233 | -3.143 | -3.013 |
| 6.375 | -2.929 | -2.839 | -2.709 |
| 6.250 | -2.449 | -2.359 | -2.229 |
| 6.125 | -2.512 | -2.422 | -2.292 |
| 6.000 | -2.209 | -2.119 | -1.989 |
| 5.875 | -1.878 | -1.788 | -1.658 |
| 5.750 | -1.373 | -1.283 | -1.153 |
| 5.625 | -1.319 | -1.229 | -1.099 |
| 5.500 | -0.963 | -0.873 | -0.743 |
| 5.375 | -0.580 | -0.490 | -0.360 |
| 5.250 | -0.039 | 0.051 | 0.181 |
| 5.125 | 0.141 | 0.231 | 0.361 |
| 5.000 | 0.547 | 0.637 | 0.767 |
| 4.875 | 0.948 | 1.038 | 1.168 |
| 4.750 | 1.504 | 1.594 | 1.724 |
| 4.625 | 1.342 | 1.432 | 1.562 |
| 4.500 | 1.800 | 1.890 | 2.020 |
| 4.375 | 2.239 | 2.329 | 2.459 |
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.750 | -4.583 | -4.493 | -4.363 |
| 7.625 | -4.243 | -4.153 | -4.023 |
| 7.500 | -3.946 | -3.856 | -3.726 |
| 7.375 | -3.507 | -3.417 | -3.287 |
| 7.250 | -2.997 | -2.907 | -2.777 |
| 7.125 | -2.999 | -2.909 | -2.779 |
| 6.999 | -2.696 | -2.606 | -2.476 |
| 6.875 | -2.165 | -2.075 | -1.945 |
| 6.750 | -1.580 | -1.490 | -1.360 |
| 6.625 | -1.740 | -1.650 | -1.520 |
| 6.500 | -1.335 | -1.245 | -1.115 |
| 6.375 | -0.700 | -0.610 | -0.480 |
| 6.250 | -0.057 | 0.033 | 0.163 |
| 6.125 | -0.241 | -0.151 | -0.021 |
| 5.999 | 0.204 | 0.294 | 0.424 |
| 5.875 | 0.974 | 1.064 | 1.194 |
| 5.750 | 1.787 | 1.877 | 2.007 |
| 5.625 | 1.789 | 1.879 | 2.009 |
| 5.500 | 2.391 | 2.481 | 2.611 |
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