Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 August Coupon is up +8 BPS at 4:15 PM ET.
The Talking Fed: Fed. Gov Waller once again stumped for a 25BPS rate cute at the July FOMC meeting citing a labor market that is “on the edge” as well as at least one more cut by the end of the year to bring the FOMC policy closer to neutral. Meanwhile President Trump says that Fed Chair Powell was one of his worst appointments in his first term.
Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary July UofM Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 60.7 to 61.8 which is not a big move. 1 year inflation expectations fell from 5.00% down to 4.40% which is a big move. 5 year inflation expectations fell from 4.00% down to 3.60%.
Taking it to the House: June’s New Housing Starts were higher than expected (1.321M vs 1.300M) but the problem is all the gains were due to rental/multifamily and not houses. Building Permits were 1.397M vs May’s pace of 1.394M (so basically unchanged).
SIGMA RESEARCH, INC. THE SHIRMEYER REPORT
Consumers increasingly becoming more confident the tariffs won’t be as destructive to the economy as originally thought, at least that is what the University of Michigan consume sentiment data indicated this morning. The sentiment index increased from 60.7 to 61.8, +1.8% month/month and +6.9% year/year, current economic conditions at 66.8 from 64.8 +3.1% month/month +6.5% year/year. The fly was in consumer expectations, the index 58.6 from 58.1 month/month, year/year -14.8. Nevertheless, consumers are less fearful. The same holds true with investors, the S&P and NASDAQ continue to make new all-time highs.
Good news but circumstantial now; key trade deals are still not resolved with our major trading partners, EU (Trump saying a 15% tariff on imports from the EU), China, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan. August 1st is coming in two weeks when Trump says the tariffs he outlined back in April will kick in unless another extension is granted. Don’t overlook Russia, Trump has set September 1st as the deadline for Russia to come to the table over Ukraine.
Former Fed Governor Waller thinks the Fed should cut rates in two weeks at the FOMC meeting, that is a very high hurdle given Powell’s reluctance as he waits for more tariffs to kick in and the attacks on him from Trump, doubt whether Powell will eat crow yet.
Next week’s calendar is thin on key data points. Monday June economic indicators. Nothing Tuesday. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June existing home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, S&P global preliminary July manufacturing and service indexes, June new home sales. Friday June durable goods orders.
This Week: 10 year note yield +1 bp, 2 year note -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -3 bps. Gold -$19.00, crude oil -$1.22. DJIA -30, NASDAQ +309, S&P +30. Bitcoin -371, dollar index +0.66.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.43% -2 bp
5 year note: 3.96% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.89% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.00% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.16 +7 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.97 +6 bp (unch from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.17 +7 bp 9 (-3 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 148.78 +0.17 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1621 +$0.0024
Dollar Index: 98.51 -0.23
Gold: $3,355.20 +$9.90
Bitcoin: 117,574 -1423
Crude Oil: $67.35 -$0.19
DJIA: 44,342.19 -142.30
NASDAQ: 20,895.66 +10.01
S&P 500: 6296,79 -0.57
SOFR Data 07/18: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34899, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34155, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37561, INDEX: 1.20324867
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,964.25 | +58.50 | +2.01% | +8.85% | +18.74% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
108,431.75 | +1,750.01 | +1.64% | +8.50% | +25.48% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,828.81 | +72.40 | +1.93% | +8.33% | +22.80% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1626 | 0.0030 | +0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
148.8100 | 0.2300 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3416 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6509 | 0.0021 | +0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3726 | -0.0027 | -0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8013 | -0.0032 | -0.40% | 4:59 P |
| USD-CZK
|
21.1895 | -0.0691 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.9126 | -0.0666 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6522 | -0.0193 | -0.53% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
343.1600 | -0.8900 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
78.5874 | 0.5223 | +0.67% | 12:30 P |
| USD-MXN
|
18.7480 | -0.0279 | -0.15% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
CONVENCJONALNE
30 LAT FIX 6.75%
15 LAT FIX 6,.125%
FHA
30 LAT FIX 6.375%
15 LAT FIX 6.125%
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||