Market Wrap-up
Taking it to the House: June New Home Sales were low at 627K AND prices dropped.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 217K versus estimates of 227K but Continuing Claims rose from 1.951M to 1.955M.
Report Card: The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index rose from -0.28 to -0.10, beating the estimates of -0.16.
Flash it: The preliminary Flash S&P Manufacturing PMI dropped from 52 to 49.5, while the Services PMI increased from 52.9to 55.2.
Central Bank Palooza: The ECB “paused” their rate lowering trend and kept their rates unchanged.
On Deck for Tomorrow: Durable Goods Orders.
Lower weekly jobless claims this morning sent interest rates higher, the 10 went from 4.39% to 4.44%, MBS prices at 9:30 -13 bps frm yesterday. Looking at lender prices the market this morning was very soft, day-to-day prices from the few lenders we track declined about 25 bps frm 9:30 yesterday. The decline in claims when measured in minutes suggest the Fed has less reason to cut rates even though the Fed isn’t expected to lower rates until at least Sept and that is a SWAG and depends on each economic report and the impact that tariffs may have.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 into contraction down from a 37 month high in May. The reading marked the first deterioration in factory business conditions since December, as production growth eased and new orders declined for the first time this year. In addition, both employment and inventories of purchases also fell for the first time since April. After weekly claims declined at 8:30 the 9:45 am release brought back the idea the Fed would lower rates soon; as far as I am concerned neither data point this morning does anything to change uncertainty about rate cuts.
Tomorrow the only data is June durable goods orders; new orders expected to have declined 11.0% from May’s 16.4% increase. Ex-vehicles sales expected +0.1% frm May’s 0.5%. Core capital orders estimates +0.2% rm May’s +1.7%. The report does have the potential to move markets depending how the release varies frm estimates.
As we hit the send button, according to his schedule Pres. Trump is visiting the Fed’s offices, likely scoping the huge cost overruns on the Fed’s $2.8B upgrade that is said to be $400 mil over budget
Investors and traders preparing for next week. Next week a lot of data, and the FOMC meeting. The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting next Wednesday. Tuesday July consumer confidence index. Wednesday July ADP private jobs, advance Q2 GDP. Thursday June PCE inflation data, personal income, and spending, Q2 employment cost index. Friday July employment report, July ISM manufacturing index, the July U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index; AND it’s the tariff deadline. That PCE and July employment are released after the FOMC makes its policy statement less interesting.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday Treasury will auction 2 yr and 5 yr notes July consumer confidence index, May Case/Shiller home price ndex, Treasury will auction 7 yr notes. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, June ADP private jobs, Q2 GDP, June pending home sales, FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference. Thursday June PCE inflation. June personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, Q2 employment cost index. Friday June employment report, June construction spending, final June U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, July ISM manufacturing index, tariffs go into effect.
This week: The 10 yr note yield declined 4 bps, the 2 yr note rate increased 3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 yr coupon this week increased 13 bps frm last Friday. The DJIA +560, NASDAQ +122, S&P +92. Gold prices down $14.00, crude prices -$2.14. The dollar index fell, down 0.86. Bitcoin lost 767.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM 07.25.2025
10 yr note: 4.39% -1 bp
5 yr note: 3.95% -1 bp
2 Yr note: 3.92% -1 bp
30 yr bond: 4.93% -1 bp
30 yr FNMA 6.0: 101.26 +5 bp (+8 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr FNMA 6.5: 103.08 +9 bp (+11 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr GNMA 6.0: 101.20 +1 bp (+5 bp frm 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 147.58 +0.59 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1746 -0.0002
Dollar Index: 97.65 +0.27
Gold: $3,340.70 -$32.80
Bitcoin: 116,807 -2215
Crude Oil: $65.21 -$0.82
DJIA: 44,901.92 +208.01
NASDAQ: 21,108.32 +50.36
S&P 500: 6388.64 +25.29
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) | ||||||||||||
| WIG20:IND
|
2,968.34 | +21.72 | +0.74% | +7.44% | +22.07% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
| WIG:IND
|
108,690.06 | +714.44 | +0.66% | +7.20% | +28.65% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
| WIG30:IND
|
3,831.12 | +22.38 | +0.59% | +6.91% | +25.98% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | ||||||||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.1760 | -0.0011 | -0.09% | 3:57 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
146.9200 | 0.4100 | +0.28% | 3:57 PM | ||||||||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3510 | -0.0072 | -0.53% | 3:57 PM | ||||||||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6595 | -0.0007 | -0.11% | 3:58 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3641 | 0.0044 | +0.32% | 3:57 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.7947 | 0.0023 | +0.29% | 3:57 P | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
20.8712 | -0.0061 | -0.03% | 3:54 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
25.6114 | 0.0185 | +0.07% | 3:54 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.6179 | 0.0072 | +0.20% | 3:54 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
337.6400 | -1.0600 | -0.31% | 3:54 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
79.1068 | 0.7092 | +0.90% | 3:31 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-TRY
|
40.4755 | 0.0202 | +0.05% | 3:54 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
18.5539 | 0.0124 | +0.07% | 4:00 PM | ||||||||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE W U.S. FINANCIAL LTD (847-636-5500)
30 lat stała 6.75
15 lat stała 6.25
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE – ŚREDNIA KRAJOWA
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.000 | -5.562 | -5.472 | -5.342 | 7.750 | -4.706 | -4.616 | -4.486 |
| 7.875 | -5.132 | -5.042 | -4.912 | 7.625 | -4.244 | -4.154 | -4.024 |
| 7.750 | -4.661 | -4.571 | -4.441 | 7.500 | -3.771 | -3.681 | -3.551 |
| 7.625 | -4.192 | -4.102 | -3.972 | 7.375 | -3.352 | -3.262 | -3.132 |
| 7.500 | -3.912 | -3.822 | -3.692 | 7.250 | -2.885 | -2.795 | -2.665 |
| 7.375 | -3.414 | -3.324 | -3.194 | 7.125 | -2.894 | -2.804 | -2.674 |
| 7.250 | -2.918 | -2.828 | -2.698 | 6.999 | -2.475 | -2.385 | -2.255 |
| 7.125 | -2.838 | -2.748 | -2.618 | 6.875 | -2.096 | -2.006 | -1.876 |
| 6.999 | -2.524 | -2.434 | -2.304 | 6.750 | -1.592 | -1.502 | -1.372 |
| 6.875 | -1.971 | -1.881 | -1.751 | 6.625 | -2.224 | -2.134 | -2.004 |
| 6.750 | -1.358 | -1.268 | -1.138 | 6.500 | -1.731 | -1.641 | -1.511 |
| 6.625 | -1.351 | -1.261 | -1.131 | 6.375 | -1.281 | -1.191 | -1.061 |
| 6.500 | -0.941 | -0.851 | -0.721 | 6.250 | -0.776 | -0.686 | -0.556 |
| 6.375 | -0.332 | -0.242 | -0.112 | 6.125 | -0.701 | -0.611 | -0.481 |
| 6.250 | 0.387 | 0.477 | 0.607 | 5.999 | -0.181 | -0.091 | 0.039 |
| 6.125 | 0.267 | 0.357 | 0.487 | 5.875 | 0.324 | 0.414 | 0.544 |
| 5.999 | 0.777 | 0.867 | 0.997 | 5.750 | 0.862 | 0.952 | 1.082 |
| 5.875 | 1.596 | 1.686 | 1.816 | 5.625 | 1.495 | 1.585 | 1.715 |
| 5.750 | 2.404 | 2.494 | 2.624 | 5.500 | 2.254 | 2.344 | 2.474 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -4.078 | -3.988 | -3.858 | 6.625 | -3.299 | -3.209 | -3.079 |
| 6.875 | -3.809 | -3.719 | -3.589 | 6.500 | -3.034 | -2.944 | -2.814 |
| 6.750 | -3.324 | -3.234 | -3.104 | 6.375 | -2.753 | -2.663 | -2.533 |
| 6.625 | -3.234 | -3.144 | -3.014 | 6.250 | -2.270 | -2.180 | -2.050 |
| 6.500 | -2.965 | -2.875 | -2.745 | 6.125 | -2.321 | -2.231 | -2.101 |
| 6.375 | -2.678 | -2.588 | -2.458 | 6.000 | -2.032 | -1.942 | -1.812 |
| 6.250 | -2.195 | -2.105 | -1.975 | 5.875 | -1.721 | -1.631 | -1.501 |
| 6.125 | -2.071 | -1.981 | -1.851 | 5.750 | -1.206 | -1.116 | -0.986 |
| 6.000 | -1.776 | -1.686 | -1.556 | 5.625 | -1.238 | -1.148 | -1.018 |
| 5.875 | -1.459 | -1.369 | -1.239 | 5.500 | -0.908 | -0.818 | -0.688 |
| 5.750 | -0.943 | -0.853 | -0.723 | 5.375 | -0.520 | -0.430 | -0.300 |
| 5.625 | -0.737 | -0.647 | -0.517 | 5.250 | 0.027 | 0.117 | 0.247 |
| 5.500 | -0.400 | -0.310 | -0.180 | 5.125 | 0.188 | 0.278 | 0.408 |
| 5.375 | -0.008 | 0.082 | 0.212 | 5.000 | 0.588 | 0.678 | 0.808 |
| 5.250 | 0.539 | 0.629 | 0.759 | 4.875 | 0.991 | 1.081 | 1.211 |
| 5.125 | 0.749 | 0.839 | 0.969 | 4.750 | 1.557 | 1.647 | 1.777 |
| 5.000 | 1.155 | 1.245 | 1.375 | 4.625 | 1.219 | 1.309 | 1.439 |
| 4.875 | 1.566 | 1.656 | 1.786 | 4.500 | 1.673 | 1.763 | 1.893 |
| 4.750 | 2.132 | 2.222 | 2.352 | 4.375 | 2.124 | 2.214 | 2.344 |
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