MARKET WRAP UP
“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
Friday, August 01, 2025 4:00 PM
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Small Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
July Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was much weaker than expected, 73K versus estimates of 110K.
June NFP were revised lower from 147K to only 14K.
May NFP were revised lower from 144K down to 19K.
The rolling 3 month average is an anemic 35K.
Wages:
The national Average Hourly Rate increased by 12 cents to $36.44.
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis which matched expectations.
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.9% on a YOY basis versus estimates of 3.8%.
Unemployment:
July’s headline Unemployment Rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% which was expected.
The U6 Underemployment Rate increased from 7.7% to 7.9%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 62.3% to 62.2%.
Rosie the Riveter: The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, 48.0 versus estimates of 49.5. Prices Paid did fall from 69.7 to 61.7 but still at very elevated levels.
The Employment Index cratered from 45 down to 43.4.
Consumer Sentiment: The July UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower from 61.8 to 61.7. while 1 year Inflation Expectations increased from 4.4% to 4.5%.
Do weekly jobless claims have any significance these days? We must wonder given today’s downward revisions of monthly jobs over the last two months revising jobs down by 585K and July jo growth at 73K against forecasts of 110K, half the jobs created have been in health care. How reliable is the BLS? This is the second mass revision to past jobs data since the beginning of the year. Today Pres. Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarffer. “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.”
Interest rates dropped hard on the weak jobs revisions, the 10 yr note now at 4.22% down 15 bps today, the biggest one day move for the note since April when the note increased from 3.97% to 4.15%. MBS prices shot up by 38 bps. The weak combination of current and revised job growth led to renewed expectations for a rate cut in September with the fed funds futures market now seeing an 80.9% implied likelihood of a September cut, up from yesterday’s 37.7%. Still don’t pay much attention to the percentage outlooks as they spin with each key data.
The year-ahead inflation expectations, as compiled by the University of Michigan, dropped to a five-month low of 4.5% in June 2025, slightly above the preliminary 4.4% estimate but well below May’s 6.6% reading—the highest since November 1981. In the meantime, the five-year outlook fell for a third straight month to 3.4% in June, the lowest since January, below the earlier estimate of 3.6%.
The stock indexes were under pressure all day, this morning on the employment reaction the DJIA dropped over 600 points, added to the decline yesterday at one point the DJIA was down 1,000 points before recovering some this afternoon.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday June factory orders. Tuesday 3 yr note auction, June trade deficit, July ISM services index. Wednesday a 10yr auction, MBA mortgage applications. Thursday a 30 yr bond auction, weekly jobless claims, preliminary Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, June consumer credit. No data next Friday.
This Week: The 10 yr note yield fell 18 bps (mostly today), the 2 yr note dropped 24 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 yr coupon tis week +56 bps (mostly today). The DJIA -1313, NASDAQ -1358, S&P -151. The dollar fell this week, the index +1.19. Gold increased $70.00 on soft dollar, Crude oil increased $2.03.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 yr note: 4.21% -16 bp
5 yr note: 3.75% -22 bp
2 Yr note: 3.68% -28 bp
30 yr bond: 4.81% -9 bp
30 yr FNMA 6.0: 101.79 +41 bp (+10 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr FNMA 6.5: 103.42 +28 bp (+8 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr GNMA 6.0: 101.64 +40 bp (+9 bp frm 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 147.37 -3.39 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1580 +$0.0164
Dollar Index: 98.84 -1.13
Gold: $3,410.70 +$62.10
Bitcoin: 113,458 -3320
Crude Oil: $67.24 -$2.02
DJIA: 43,588.58 -542.40
NASDAQ: 20,650.13 -472.32
S&P 500: 6238.01 -101.38
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,874.75 | -75.67 | -2.56% | +1.71% | +21.06% | 10:06 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
105,435.31 | -2,450.19 | -2.27% | +1.19% | +27.74% | 10:06 A |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1572 | 0.0157 | +1.38% | 10:21 AM |
| USD-JPY
|
148.1200 | -2.6300 | -1.74% | 10:20 AM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3282 | 0.0075 | +0.57% | 10:20 AM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6474 | 0.0049 | +0.76% | 10:20 AM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3779 | -0.0077 | -0.56% | 10:20 AM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8044 | -0.0079 | -0.97% | 10:20 AM |
| USD-MXN
|
18.8824 | 0.0065 | +0.03% | 10:17 AM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.2378 | -0.2943 | -1.37% | 10:19 AM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.0526 | -0.3381 | -1.28% | 10:19 AM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6934 | -0.0527 | -1.41% | 10:19 AM |
| USD-HUF
|
344.4800 | -5.8200 | -1.66% | 10:19 AM |
| USD-RUB
|
79.8770 | -0.6638 | -0.82% | 10:19 AM |
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.750 | -4.887 | -4.797 | -4.667 | 7.625 | -4.486 | -4.396 | -4.266 |
| 7.625 | -4.512 | -4.422 | -4.292 | 7.500 | -4.141 | -4.051 | -3.921 |
| 7.500 | -4.237 | -4.147 | -4.017 | 7.375 | -3.711 | -3.621 | -3.491 |
| 7.375 | -3.759 | -3.669 | -3.539 | 7.250 | -3.243 | -3.153 | -3.023 |
| 7.250 | -3.248 | -3.158 | -3.028 | 7.125 | -3.264 | -3.174 | -3.044 |
| 7.125 | -3.162 | -3.072 | -2.942 | 6.999 | -2.837 | -2.747 | -2.617 |
| 6.999 | -2.848 | -2.758 | -2.628 | 6.875 | -2.466 | -2.376 | -2.246 |
| 6.875 | -2.303 | -2.213 | -2.083 | 6.750 | -1.963 | -1.873 | -1.743 |
| 6.750 | -1.695 | -1.605 | -1.475 | 6.625 | -2.836 | -2.746 | -2.616 |
| 6.625 | -1.917 | -1.827 | -1.697 | 6.500 | -2.341 | -2.251 | -2.121 |
| 6.500 | -1.513 | -1.423 | -1.293 | 6.375 | -1.898 | -1.808 | -1.678 |
| 6.375 | -0.874 | -0.784 | -0.654 | 6.250 | -1.382 | -1.292 | -1.162 |
| 6.250 | -0.199 | -0.109 | 0.021 | 6.125 | -1.460 | -1.370 | -1.240 |
| 6.125 | -0.420 | -0.330 | -0.200 | 5.999 | -0.939 | -0.849 | -0.719 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.625 | -3.622 | -3.532 | -3.402 | 6.500 | -3.421 | -3.331 | -3.201 |
| 6.500 | -3.352 | -3.262 | -3.132 | 6.375 | -3.137 | -3.047 | -2.917 |
| 6.375 | -3.062 | -2.972 | -2.842 | 6.250 | -2.653 | -2.563 | -2.433 |
| 6.250 | -2.578 | -2.488 | -2.358 | 6.125 | -2.702 | -2.612 | -2.482 |
| 6.125 | -2.452 | -2.362 | -2.232 | 6.000 | -2.413 | -2.323 | -2.193 |
| 6.000 | -2.157 | -2.067 | -1.937 | 5.875 | -2.102 | -2.012 | -1.882 |
| 5.875 | -1.840 | -1.750 | -1.620 | 5.750 | -1.586 | -1.496 | -1.366 |
| 5.750 | -1.324 | -1.234 | -1.104 | 5.625 | -1.734 | -1.644 | -1.514 |
| 5.625 | -1.234 | -1.144 | -1.014 | 5.500 | -1.404 | -1.314 | -1.184 |
| 5.500 | -0.896 | -0.806 | -0.676 | 5.375 | -1.018 | -0.928 | -0.798 |
| 5.375 | -0.505 | -0.415 | -0.285 | 5.250 | -0.469 | -0.379 | -0.249 |
| 5.250 | 0.044 | 0.134 | 0.264 | 5.125 | -0.432 | -0.342 | -0.212 |
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