Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”

 

                                            Friday, September 19, 2025 4:00 PM

Market Wrap-up

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 231K vs est of 240K. Continuing Claims remain high at 1.920M.

Rosie the Riveter: The September Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey shocked to the upside by sling-shooting from -0.3 to 23.2 and more importantly, Prices Paid tanked from 66.8 down to 46.8.

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of England kept their Interest Rate at 4.00% and only had 2 votes for a cut.

On Deck for Tomorrow: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision.

Interest rates continued to increase today after the FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks yesterday. Nothing significant in what the Fed’s policy statement, the quarterly projections and Powell said. It was a typical reaction given that rate markets had already factored the Fed cutting three basis points this year. It was 25 as widely expected but there wasn’t anything additional coming from the news yesterday. Powell and the Fed reiterated there was more concern about the employment situation than inflation, and as we noted previously the 10 yr has strong resistance pushing below 4.00%, investors will shy away buying 10 yr notes with a 3 handle. Powell did comment as usual that additional cuts will be based on incoming data.

Pushing inflation aside for the present was obvious when the Fed released its quarterly projections for the next eight quarters; the Fed doesn’t expect inflation to fall to its 2.0% target until 2028. If that comes to be the case in markets, long term rates are not going to decline much frm present levels.

The incoming data hit today with weekly jobless claims reported much lower than forecasts, -33K frm the previous week. The employment situation did improve based on claims and continuing claims also were lower. Rates had a very strong two weeks; both technically and fundamentally rates were more likely to bounce up than continuing to fall. I’m speaking of near term; the wider picture will continue to be driven by news about employment and inflation. It isn’t likely that rates will spike substantially higher given what markets presently know and perceive, but expecting much lower mortgage rates is Quixotic, we continue to believe present mortgage rates are at or close to their lows.

Now that the Fed is behind us, expect to hear a lot about the US debt, the debt ceiling must be increased in less than two weeks to keep the government from closing; Congress goes through this ritual every year; lots of threats and arguments but by the End of this month an increase will occur. The point though is investors, markets and central banks will turn attention to the climbing US debt, a drag on long term rates.

There isn’t any data tomorrow. Next week’s keys, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and August PCE inflation data on Friday.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 yr note: 4.12% +5 bp

5 yr note: 3.68% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.58% +1 bp

30 yr bond: 4.74% +5 bp

30 yr FNMA 5.5: 100.98 -17 bp (+1 bp frm 9:30)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: 102.25 -7 bp (+1 bp frm 9:30)

30 yr GNMA 5.5: 100.85 -7 bp (unch frm 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 147.91 +0.91 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1784 -$0.0030

Dollar Index: 97.38 +0.50

Gold: $3,676.60 -$41.20

Bitcoin: 117,313 +1627

Crude Oil: $63.65 -$0.40

DJIA: 46, 142.42 +124.10

NASDAQ: 22,470.73 +209.40

S&P 500: 6631.96 +31.61

SOFR Data 09/18: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.38881, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37770, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.38361, INDEX: 1.21231295

POLAND

Giełda

Name	Value	Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,809.46	3.96	0.14%	5.15	20.75%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	105,564.88	52.37	0.05%	3.95	27.64%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,654.65	6.93	0.19%	4.20	24.73%	11:15 AM

Waluty

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1785	-0.0003	-0.03%	5:03 PM
USD-JPY	147.9300	-0.0700	-0.05%	5:03 PM
GBP-USD	1.3552	-0.0003	-0.02%	5:03 PM
AUD-USD	0.6617	0.0005	+0.08%	5:03 PM
USD-CAD	1.3798	0.0001	+0.01%	5:03 PM
USD-CHF	0.7920	-0.0004	-0.05%	5:00 PM

 

USD-MXN

18.3625

0.0025

+0.01%

5:01 PM

 

USD-CZK	20.6376	0.0189	+0.09%	5:06 PM
USD-SKK	25.5609	0.0034	+0.01%	5:06 PM
USD-PLN	3.6145	-0.0012	-0.03%	5:06 PM
USD-HUF	330.4100	0.0200	+0.01%	5:06 PM
USD-RUB	83.1997	-0.4155	-0.50%	12:29 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

Conventional 30Yr Fixed

6.125%  102.139 102.105

Conventional 15Yr Fixed

5.875%  102.297 102.275 102.260

 

Mortgage Rates Finally Level Off After 2-Day Rout Fri, Sep 19, 2025 3:35PM Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reason being: some lenders offered mid-day improvements yesterday, but not enough to impact our index.  Those same lenders are generally a hair higher today, but again, the average lender is a hair lower. In the bigger picture, it’s just as well to consider today as a “sideways” day, and that’s a victory at the moment.  A sideways day means that the 2 day losing streak that took the average rate roughly 0.25% higher is finally finding its … (read more)   Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.90% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.03% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.28% +0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.78% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.05% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 9/19   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.26% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/18   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.39% -0.10 0.54 15 Yr. Fixed 5.63% -0.07 0.58 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.48% +0.04 0.35 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/17 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.41 -0.14 95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.02 -0.04 97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.138 +0.034 3.706 4.780 It’s Not as Bad as it Seems Fri, Sep 19, 2025 11:23AM In your defense, perhaps you’re not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here’s some perspective. With the exception of the past 2 weeks, 10yr yields are the lowest since April and mortgage rates are the lowest since October. Both are lower than they were the day before this month’s jobs report and mortgage … (read more)   MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.31 -0.15 UMBS 5.0 99.41 -0.14 UMBS 5.5 101.02 -0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.34 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 99.72 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 100.86 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/19 4:01PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.581 +0.017 5 YR Treasury 3.690 +0.023 7 YR Treasury 3.886 +0.036 10 YR Treasury 4.138 +0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.754 +0.030 Pricing as of: 9/19 4:01PM EST

 

 

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 18, 2025

 

If You’re One of Those People Asking How Much Lower Your Mortgage Rate Quote is After Fed Day, This is Required Reading Thu, Sep 18, 2025 3:40PM It’s day two of mortgage rates surging higher–now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks (the day before the September 5th jobs report). The juxtaposition of yesterday’s Fed rate cut and the sudden mortgage rate spike is incredibly confusing to most of the population, so let’s clear it up. SHORT VERSION:   The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) doesn’t dictate mortgage rates The FFR only changes on Fed announcement days, 8 times a year.  It changes in response to various economic reports and events. Mortgage rates change daily and the bonds that drive mortgage rates change in real-time th… (read more)

 

 

 

Losing Ground After Stronger Econ Data Thu, Sep 18, 2025 9:28AM This morning’s economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims for driving last Thursday morning’s rally.  Now today, claims are right back in line with the same low levels from 2 weeks ago.  Continued Claims are also much lower than expected, including a friendly… (read more)