“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
Friday, September 26, 2025
Market Wrap-up
Inflation Nation: The Fed’s key measure of inflation was bang-on the market expectations. The Headline PCE MOM rose by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY, it moved up from 2.6% to 2.7% as expected. Core (ex food and energy) PCE increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis and 2.9% on a YOY basis, both matched the consensus estimates.
Incomes and Spending: August Personal Incomes were higher than expected, up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% and so was Personal Spending which was up 0.6% versus estimates of 0.5%.
Consumer Sentiment: The final/revised UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower from 55.4 down to 55.1. Inflation Expectations actually dropped on the 1YR from 4.8% to 4.7% and the 5 YR from 3.9% to 3.7%.
Tariffic: More tariffs were announced which include 100% on branded drugs (unless they agree to manufacture in U.S.), and a 25% tariff on heavy truck parts.
Not much movement in interest rates today, this morning’s PCE inflation was right on estimates keeping traders quiet. August personal income slightly better than estimates, personal consumption expenditures also better than forecasts. Once again, the 10 year note climbed to 4.20% where it found support. Can’t say it enough, holding 4.20% is critical that it holds from a technical perspective.
Yesterday weekly jobless claims were lower than expectation for the second week in a row, down 47K over the last two weeks. Q2 GDP much better than forecasts, +3.8% from +3.3% on the advance release a month ago, the fastest pace in almost two years.
Q3 GDP according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow was revised from 3.3% to +3.9% in the prior forecast.
Talk is the Fed will cut rates at the October meeting but a lot of new uncertainty about the perceived cut in December. Next week’s data will set the tone, there are numerous key releases and next Wednesday the government is scheduled to shut down unless Congress can agree on a course to keep Treasury funding going, currently it looks shaky that a deal will happen, but that is how our politics works, I believe it will get resolved by Tuesday evening, not before.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday August pending home sales. Tuesday July Case/Shiller home price index, Sept Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, Sept consumer confidence index, August JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Sept ADP private jobs, S&P global manufacturing index, August construction spending. Thursday weekly jobless claims, August factory orders. Friday September employment data, Sept. S&P global services sector index, Sept ISM services index.
This Week: The 10 year note yield increased 5 bs, the 2 year note +7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week -26 bps in price. The DJIA this week +32, NASDAQ -147, S&P -20. Gold continued to increase, +$83.00, only $20.00 from $4,000.00, crude oil increased $2.71. The dollar index increased 0.53, Bitcoin plunged -6,197.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.18% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.77% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.65% unch
30 year bond: 4.76% unch
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.78 +1 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.10 +2 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.70 +6 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 149.49 -0.31 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1703 +$0.0037
Dollar Index: 98.19 -0.36
Gold: $3,799.10 +$28.00
Bitcoin: 109,200 -165
Crude Oil: $65.43 +0.45
DJIA: 46,247.29 +299.97
NASDAQ: 22,484.07 +99.37
S&P 500: 6643.70 +38.98
SOFR Data 09/26: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33328, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36109, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37510, INDEX: 1.21342902
POLAND
| Name | Value | Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,832.26 | 34.47 | 1.23% | 2.59 | 19.68% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
106,570.63 | 1,008.85 | 0.96% | 1.81 | 26.27% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,668.63 | 40.17 | 1.11% | 2.69 | 22.59% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1703 | 0.0037 | +0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
149.4900 | -0.3100 | -0.21% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3402 | 0.0057 | +0.43% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6542 | 0.0002 | +0.03% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3934 | -0.0006 | -0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7979 | -0.0018 | -0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
18.3677 | -0.1080 | -0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.7541 | -0.1195 | -0.57% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.7422 | -0.0818 | -0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6462 | -0.0164 | -0.45% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
333.8800 | -1.9300 | -0.57% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
83.5791 | -0.3842 | -0.46% | 1:26 PM |
POŻYCZKI KONWENCJONALNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||
| 7.625 | -3.956 | -3.866 | -3.736 | ||||
| 7.500 | -3.653 | -3.563 | -3.433 | ||||
| 7.375 | -3.228 | -3.138 | -3.008 | ||||
| 7.250 | -2.778 | -2.688 | -2.558 | ||||
| 7.125 | -2.844 | -2.754 | -2.624 | ||||
| 6.999 | -2.645 | -2.555 | -2.425 | ||||
| 6.875 | -2.240 | -2.150 | -2.020 | ||||
| 6.750 | -1.710 | -1.620 | -1.490 | ||||
| 6.625 | -2.166 | -2.076 | -1.946 | ||||
| 6.500 | -1.797 | -1.707 | -1.577 | ||||
| 6.375 | -1.224 | -1.134 | -1.004 | ||||
| 6.250 | -0.601 | -0.511 | -0.381 | ||||
| 6.125 | -0.789 | -0.699 | -0.569 | ||||
| 5.999 | -0.353 | -0.263 | -0.133 | ||||
| 5.875 | 0.269 | 0.359 | 0.489 | ||||
| 5.750 | 0.982 | 1.072 | 1.202 | ||||
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||
| 6.625 | -3.270 | -3.180 | -3.050 | ||||
| 6.500 | -3.099 | -3.009 | -2.879 | ||||
| 6.375 | -2.871 | -2.781 | -2.651 | ||||
| 6.250 | -2.375 | -2.285 | -2.155 | ||||
| 6.125 | -2.138 | -2.048 | -1.918 | ||||
| 6.000 | -1.898 | -1.808 | -1.678 | ||||
| 5.875 | -1.636 | -1.546 | -1.416 | ||||
| 5.750 | -1.154 | -1.064 | -0.934 | ||||
| 5.625 | -1.150 | -1.060 | -0.930 | ||||
| 5.500 | -0.884 | -0.794 | -0.664 | ||||
| 5.375 | -0.569 | -0.479 | -0.349 | ||||
| 5.250 | -0.055 | 0.035 | 0.165 | ||||
| 5.125 | 0.223 | 0.313 | 0.443 | ||||
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