Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 October Coupon is down -5 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Service Please: The Biggest release of the week (since no jobs data), ISM Non Manufacturing PMI was lighter than expected by dropping from 52 down to 50 and 50 is break-even for this index. Prices Paid which is a key measure of inflation (and might be our only one since we are unlikely to see CPI) increased from 69.2 to 69.4 which is not good. The Employment Component increased from 46.5 to 47.2 but still in negative territory.

Interest rates inched higher today after working lower this week. A little safety likely pushing yields lower, nothing from the fundamental issues, no employment data and the decline in ADP jobs was due to ADP restructuring how it calculates private jobs. The shut down has had little to no effect on US and global markets driven on the belief it won’t last long.

The DJIA rallied today, the other key indexes generally unchanged, all three major indexes recorded more new all-time highs. Although rates ended a little higher on the week, they slipped a little lower. This week is hard to square, new highs in stocks, interest rates holding well, no one believes the shut down will last until Wednesday at the longest. The Fed is still seen to lower rates 25 bps at the end of the month and another cut in Dec. The key stock indexes defy gravity, how much more before a pull back? There were huge moves in gold, bitcoin and crude oil this week.

Next week’s calendar as it stands now: Tuesday August trade deficit, August consumer credit, 3 year note auction?. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Sept FOMC minutes?, 10 year note auction?. Thursday weekly jobless claims? 30 year bond action?. Friday U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Sept Treasury budget?

This week: The 10 year note -5 bps, the 2 year note -7 bps, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon +19 bps. The DJIA +511, NASDAQ +297, S&P +72. The dollar weakened, the index -0.48. Gold increased $115.00, crude oil -$5.60. Bitcoin +13,587.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.13% +4 bp

5 year note: 3.72% +6 bp

2 year note: 3.58% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.71% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.97 -11 bp (-8 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.19 -6 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.81 -5 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 147.48 +0.22 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1742 +$0.0024

Dollar Index: 97.71 -0.13

Gold: $3,913.90 +$45.90

Bitcoin: 122,787 +1849 (another new high)

Crude Oil: $60.83 +$0.35

DJIA: 46,758.28 +238.56

NASDAQ: 22,780.51 -63.54

S&P 500: 6715.79 +0.44

SOFR Data 10/03: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.29320, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34404, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.36743, INDEX: 1.21441522

POLAND

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,861.62	11.20	0.39%	2.71	23.47%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	107,695.88	574.38	0.54%	3.10	30.01%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,711.33	16.65	0.45%	3.37	26.74%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1723	0.00	0.07%	8:09 PM
USD-JPY	147.3000	0.04	0.03%	8:09 PM
GBP-USD	1.3441	0.00	0.01%	8:09 PM
AUD-USD	0.6597	0.00	0.03%	8:09 PM
USD-CAD	1.3964	0.00	0.03%	8:09 PM
USD-CHF	0.7974	0.00	0.06%	8:09

USD-CZK	20.7128	0.01	0.03%	8:19 PM
USD-SKK	25.6984	0.02	0.06%	8:19 PM
USD-PLN	3.6329	0.00	0.05%	8:19 PM
USD-HUF	331.9900	0.19	0.06%	8:19 PM
USD-RUB	82.4664	0.13	0.16%	5:14 PM

USD-MXN

18.4337

0.01

0.04%

8:18 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.500	-3.881		-3.791		-3.661
7.375	-3.450		-3.360		-3.230
7.250	-2.996		-2.906		-2.776
7.125	-3.155		-3.065		-2.935
6.999	-2.967		-2.877		-2.747
6.875	-2.525		-2.435		-2.305
6.750	-1.987		-1.897		-1.767
6.625	-2.468		-2.378		-2.248
6.500	-2.090		-2.000		-1.870
6.375	-1.521		-1.431		-1.301
6.250	-0.890		-0.800		-0.670
pro6.125	-1.350		-1.260		-1.130
5.999	-0.904		-0.814		-0.684
5.875	-0.289		-0.199		-0.069
5.750	0.441		0.531		0.661
ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.625		-3.386		-3.296		-3.166
6.500		-3.209		-3.119		-2.989
6.375		-3.001		-2.911		-2.781
6.250		-2.496		-2.406		-2.276
6.125		-2.286		-2.196		-2.066
6.000		-2.039		-1.949		-1.819
5.875		-1.778		-1.688		-1.558
5.750		-1.296		-1.206		-1.076
5.625		-1.540		-1.450		-1.320
5.500		-1.273		-1.183		-1.053
5.375		-0.960		-0.870		-0.740
5.250		-0.445		-0.355		-0.225
5.125		-0.166		-0.076		0.054
5.000		0.246		0.336		0.466

0procentowania w US Financial Ltd

Conventional 30Yr Fixed

Rate 15 Day 30 Day 45 Day 60 Day

6.125 102.221 102.177 102.125 102.074

Conventional 15Yr Fixed

5.875 102.044 102.012 101.959 101.925

Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day

Fri, Oct 3, 2025 3:51PM

Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday’s strength). Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the avera… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.34%	-0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.84%	-0.03	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.03%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.25%	-0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	5.76%	-0.03	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.05%	-0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/3

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.34%	+0.04	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.55%	+0.06	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/2

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.46%	+0.12	0.61
15 Yr. Fixed	5.76%	+0.06	0.68
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.54%	+0.10	0.40
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/1

UMBS 30YR 5.0

99.48 -0.14

95.05

99.96

UMBS 30YR 5.5

101.00 -0.09

97.47

101.28

10 YR Treasury

4.120 +0.038

3.839

4.780

Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data

Fri, Oct 3, 2025 10:12AM

With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today’s ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capable of moving the needle, but today’s example is mixed. New orders fell sharply, but employment ticked up slightly (and employment may be a bit more tradeable ri… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	97.43	-0.14
UMBS 5.0	99.48	-0.14
UMBS 5.5	101.00	-0.09
GNMA 4.5	97.43	-0.09
GNMA 5.0	99.67	-0.16
GNMA 5.5	100.84	-0.06
Pricing as of: 10/3 4:16PM EST