Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 October Coupon is up +4 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

The Talking Fed: Fed Gov Waller said today in a CNBC interview that “I want to move towards cutting rates, but you’re not going to do it aggressively and fast, in case you make a big mistake on which way that things go.”

Glass Half Empty: The preliminary October UofM Consumer Sentiment Index moved from 55.1 to 55.0, so basically little change. Republicans continue to be very optimistic with a robust reading of 98.2. Democrats are on the other end of the spectrum with a reading of 36.3. Overall, 1YR Inflation Expectations dipped from 4.7% down to 4.6% while 5 year Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 3.7%.

Geopolitical: The Senate is in recess until Tuesday so there will be no movement on the Govt Shutdown. However, a team at the BLS has been brought back and will work on compiling and completing the CPI report that is due right before the October FOMC meeting.

***Monday the bond market is CLOSED for Columbus Day***

 

Note: My metrics above inform you on what impact these items have had over the past four weeks and specifically on today’s trades. But they do not point the way towards future pricing. I do provide intra-day and longer term lock advice in our Morning Coffee Update and Video.

After four days of flat-lining today interest rates took a big step lower breaking below 4.10% that had kept rates in check. A few key news items today that rocked the stock market and forced investors into fixed rates.

Trump threatened China with substantial tariffs over its unwillingness to deal with export controls, mentioning the rare earth minerals deal. Trump scheduled a trip to Asia next month but said he saw no reason now to meet with Xi. The stock market rolled over, interest rates fell, gold price increased. Investors and traders have taken a calm approach recently on tariff considerations, that changed today. Analysts blaming the big dip in stock indexes on new tariffs; that is true but also the recent climb in stocks had bushed excess to euphoria that likely needed some tempering.

A couple more Fed officials today saying they favor lowering rates if employment continues to slow.

The administration is beginning to lay off government workers; some may never return.

President Trump thought to be shoe in for the Nobel Peace Prize for his various peace deals, now including Israel/Gaza. He even campaigned for it saying in essence he deserved it. Maybe so, but he didn’t get it. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. The White House complained that President Trump was snubbed for the Nobel Peace Prize because the award’s committee placed “politics over peace.” The Committee saying, “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”

Next week the calendar indicates September PPI inflation data, but the CPI inflation won’t be released until October 24th (FOMC on October 28 and 29).

Monday the bond market will be closed for what was Columbus Day, now indigenous people’s day. The stock market will trade normal hours.

This week the 10 year note yield -7 bps (all today), the 2 year note -5 bp. FNMA 5,5 30 year coupon this week, its price +8 bps.

 

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.06% -8 bp

5 year note: 3.65% -9 bp

2 year note: 3.53% -7 bp

30 year bond: 4.64% -8 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.98 +14 bp (+4 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.22 +5 bp (+3 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.78 +4 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 151.68 -1.40 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1612 +$0.0046

Dollar Index: 98.93 -0.61

Gold: $4,028.00 +$55.10

Bitcoin: 116,954 -4070

Crude Oil: $58.86 -$2.65

DJIA: 45,479.60 -878.20

NASDAQ: 22,204.43 -820.20

S&P 500: 6552.50 -182.61

SOFR Data 10/10: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.23367, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33023, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35921, INDEX: 1.21539649

 

POLAND

 

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,874.30	3.69	0.13%	1.34	23.82%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	108,019.30	276.60	0.26%	1.29	30.39%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,724.15	9.58	0.26%	0.91	27.02%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1559	0.00	0.04%	7:15 PM
USD-JPY	153.2300	0.16	0.10%	7:15 PM
GBP-USD	1.3295	0.00	0.07%	7:15 PM
AUD-USD	0.6555	0.00	0.02%	7:15 PM
USD-CAD	1.4024	0.00	0.03%	7:15 PM
USD-CHF	0.8067	0.00	0.05%	7:15 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.0779	0.00	0.02%	7:22 PM
USD-SKK	26.0533	0.00	0.01%	7:22 PM
USD-PLN	3.6812	0.00	0.01%	7:22 PM
USD-HUF	338.2500	0.10	0.03%	7:22 PM
USD-RUB	81.1908	0.15	0.18%	12:00 PM

 

USD-MXN

18.3918

0.00

0.01%

7:20 PM

30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% -0.06% 6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.04% 5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% -0.04% 6.14% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 10, 2025

Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day Fri, Oct 10, 2025 3:16PM Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on China. Trump had previously been scheduled to meet with China’s President Xi in 2 weeks, but  today said there was no reason to do so and that the administration is currently calculating a massive increase in Chinese tariffs.  Stocks and bonds immediately responded with the former moving lower and bonds rallying.  When bonds rally, interest rates move lower, all else equal. Mortgage lenders use mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to d… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.03% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.82% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.04% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/10   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.53% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/9   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% +0.01 0.79 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.60% +0.06 0.44 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/8

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.57 +0.40 95.05 99.96 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.03 +0.30 97.47 101.28 10 YR Treasury 4.046 -0.094 3.932 4.780

Overnight Gains on Fed Comments And Japanese Politics (Really) Fri, Oct 10, 2025 9:44AM At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan’s LDP party, thus making her the front runner to become the Prime Minister. Her economic views fueled fears that Japan’s central bank would ultimately need to sell Treasuries in … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.50 +0.43 UMBS 5.0 99.57 +0.40 UMBS 5.5 101.03 +0.30 GNMA 4.5 97.51 +0.31 GNMA 5.0 99.84 +0.32 GNMA 5.5 100.82 +0.10 Pricing as of: 10/10 3:46PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.514 -0.082 5 YR Treasury 3.638 -0.096 7 YR Treasury 3.824 -0.097 10 YR Treasury 4.046 -0.094 30 YR Treasury 4.631 -0.092 Pricing as of: 10/10 3:46PM EST

Oprocentowania w US Financial Ltd

30 lat fixed 6.125%

15 lat fixed 5.875%

 

CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING (POŻYCZKI KONWENCJONALNE)
ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR				ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-3.766	-3.676	-3.546	7.375	-3.472	-3.382	-3.252	6.625	-3.310	-3.220	-3.090	6.500	-3.149	-3.059	-2.929
7.375	-3.331	-3.241	-3.111	7.250	-3.003	-2.913	-2.783	6.500	-3.133	-3.043	-2.913	6.375	-2.997	-2.907	-2.777
7.250	-2.872	-2.782	-2.652	7.125	-3.509	-3.419	-3.289	6.375	-2.922	-2.832	-2.702	6.250	-2.491	-2.401	-2.271
7.125	-3.116	-3.026	-2.896	6.999	-3.129	-3.039	-2.909	6.250	-2.416	-2.326	-2.196	6.125	-2.405	-2.315	-2.185
6.999	-2.921	-2.831	-2.701	6.875	-2.764	-2.674	-2.544	6.125	-2.248	-2.158	-2.028	6.000	-2.218	-2.128	-1.998
6.875	-2.484	-2.394	-2.264	6.750	-2.302	-2.212	-2.082	6.000	-2.002	-1.912	-1.782	5.875	-2.002	-1.912	-1.782
6.750	-1.947	-1.857	-1.727	6.625	-3.363	-3.273	-3.143	5.875	-1.740	-1.650	-1.520	5.750	-1.519	-1.429	-1.299
6.625	-2.281	-2.191	-2.061	6.500	-3.028	-2.938	-2.808	5.750	-1.256	-1.166	-1.036	5.625	-1.743	-1.653	-1.523
6.500	-1.904	-1.814	-1.684	6.375	-2.600	-2.510	-2.380	5.625	-1.319	-1.229	-1.099	5.500	-1.523	-1.433	-1.303
6.375	-1.334	-1.244	-1.114	6.250	-2.089	-1.999	-1.869	5.500	-1.052	-0.962	-0.832	5.375	-1.251	-1.161	-1.031
6.250	-0.703	-0.613	-0.483	6.125	-2.388	-2.298	-2.168	5.375	-0.738	-0.648	-0.518	5.250	-0.734	-0.644	-0.514
6.125	-1.016	-0.926	-0.796	5.999	-1.928	-1.838	-1.708	5.250	-0.222	-0.132	-0.002	5.125	-0.457	-0.367	-0.237
5.999	-0.570	-0.480	-0.350	5.875	-1.460	-1.370	-1.240	5.125	0.031	0.121	0.251	5.000	-0.132	-0.042	0.088
5.875	0.050	0.140	0.270	5.750	-0.964	-0.874	-0.744	5.000	0.393	0.483	0.613	4.875	0.200	0.290	0.420
5.750	0.775	0.865	0.995	5.625	-0.302	-0.212	-0.082	4.875	0.775	0.865	0.995	4.750	0.675	0.765	0.895
5.625	0.594	0.684	0.814	5.500	0.420	0.510	0.640	4.750	1.311	1.401	1.531	4.625	0.715	0.805	0.935
5.500	1.106	1.196	1.326	5.375	1.182	1.272	1.402	4.625	1.307	1.397	1.527	4.500	1.070	1.160	1.290
5.375	1.914	2.004	2.134	5.250	1.861	1.951	2.081	4.500	1.716	1.806	1.936	4.375	1.410	1.500	1.630
5.250	2.761	2.851	2.981	5.125	2.578	2.668	2.798	4.375	2.110	2.200	2.330	4.250	1.973	2.063	2.193
ELITE PROGRAM IS DESIGNED FOR BORROWERS WITH 700+ CREDIT SCORES, LTV’S 80% OR LESS, AND LOAN AMTS => THAN 125K