Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 November Coupon is down just -2 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: We finally got some real economic data to sink our teeth into. The delayed September Consumer Price Index was lighter than expected across the board. Headline CPI increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.4%. YOY, it increased from 2.9% to 3.0% versus estimates of 3.1%. Core (ex food and energy) CPI increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.3%. YOY, it decreased from 3.1% down to 3.0% versus estimates of 3.1%.

Glass Half Empty: The Final UofM Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from the plelim number of 55.0 down to 53.6. 1 year inflation expectations remained at 4.6% while 5% inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%.

Flash it: The prelim October Flash PMIs showed Manufacturing improving to 52.2 from 52.0 and Services improving from 53.5 to 55.2.

Geopolitical: The Government is still shut down. On the trade front, the White House has suspended all talks with Canada in objection to an advertisement that they put out. President Trump and China’s President Xi are set to meet.

September CPI this morning was a little better than expectations, there was no movement in interest rates after anticipation all week. The 10 is hugging 4.00% like a child hugs its teddy bear; MBS prices also locked in a narrow range. The release was driven by SSA that needed the data to compute SS COLA changes for 2026; it didn’t take long, the COLA benefit will increase 2.8% in 2026. October consumer sentiment continued to decline with nervousness over the shut down and weakness in employment outlooks.

Next Wednesday the FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference, the CPI today clears the way for 25 bp cut at the meeting and opens the possibility for 25 bps more at the December FOMC meeting. Inflation is key but not as much as the employment situation, Powell has made that clear. There hasn’t been any data about employment since Sept 25th, the last weekly jobless claims although ADP did report Sept private jobs lost 55K.

We normally list next week’s calendar on this report, we will wait until Monday to list it. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Sept PCE inflation on Friday and a lot more. No progress for ending the shut down so far and given the deep divisions not likely over the weekend.

This week: 10 year note tis week unchanged, the 2 year note +2 bps, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week gained 8 bps. The DJIA +1,016, NASDAQ +515, S&P +128. Gold declined $111.00, crude increased $3.86 on Russian sanction. Bit coin recovered a little +4.363, dollar improved, the index +0.50.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.00% unch

5 year note: 3.60% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.49% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.59% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.23 +7 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.33 -2 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.97 +5 bp (unch from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 152.86 +0.27 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1628 +$0.0010

Dollar Index: 98.94 unch

Gold: $4,126.00 -$19.60

Bitcoin: 110,748 +480

Crude Oil: $61.46 -$0.33

DJIA: 47,207.12 +472.51 (new record)

NASDAQ: 23,204.87 +263.07

S&P 500: 6791.69 +53.25

SOFR Data 12/24: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.18680, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.31180, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34956, INDEX: 1.21738164

POLAND

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,981.19	3.48	0.12%	5.39	32.76%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	111,427.75	141.18	0.13%	4.61	37.81%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,854.16	1.65	0.04%	5.05	35.29%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1627	0.00	0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	152.8600	0.29	0.19%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3311	0.00	0.11%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6513	0.00	0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3996	0.00	0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.7957	0.00	0.06%	4:59 P

USD-MXN

18.4518

0.05

0.27%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	20.9196	0.02	0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	25.9093	0.02	0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.6476	0.01	0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	335.3500	0.65	0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	79.7500	1.69	2.07%	4:58 PM

POYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.19% +0.01%

6.13%

7.26%

15 Yr. Fixed

5.76% +0.02%

5.6%

6.59%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.14% +0.04%

6.1%

7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 24, 2025

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Despite Decent Inflation Data

Fri, Oct 24, 2025 2:45PM

This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. government, and the only government inflation report that’s coming out during the shutdown. With big government data being a key consideration for interest rates, this special release got extra attention. Core monthly inflation was lower than expected (.227% vs 0.3 forecast) as was the annual level at 3.0% versus a median forecast of 3.1%. Inflation is the nemesis of interest rates, so the lower-than-expected result is rate-friendly at face … (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.19%	+0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.76%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.95%	+0.04	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.14%	+0.04	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	5.85%	+0.03	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.97%	+0.04	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/24

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.19%	-0.08	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.44%	-0.08	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/23

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.37%	-0.05	0.59
15 Yr. Fixed	5.74%	-0.03	0.67
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.39%	-0.08	0.37
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/22

UMBS 30YR 5.0

99.84 +0.11

95.05

99.98

UMBS 30YR 5.5

101.22 +0.07

97.47

101.32

10 YR Treasury

3.991 -0.011

3.932

4.780

Pros and Cons in CPI Report

Fri, Oct 24, 2025 9:47AM

In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we’re running at 3.0% in both metrics, which is high, but also 0.1 lower than expected. That’s the good news, and it’s the reason that bonds are stronger after the data. The not-so-good news involves metr… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	97.97	+0.13
UMBS 5.0	99.84	+0.11
UMBS 5.5	101.22	+0.07
GNMA 4.5	97.97	+0.04
GNMA 5.0	99.85	+0.04
GNMA 5.5	100.95	+0.08
Pricing as of: 10/24 3:11PM EST

US Treasury	Yield	Change
2 YR Treasury	3.476	-0.016
5 YR Treasury	3.594	-0.013
7 YR Treasury	3.776	-0.012
10 YR Treasury	3.991	-0.011
30 YR Treasury	4.580	+0.006
Pricing as of: 10/24 3:11PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.250	-3.231	-3.141	-3.011
7.125	-3.111	-3.021	-2.891
6.999	-2.891	-2.801	-2.671
6.875	-2.552	-2.462	-2.332
6.750	-2.054	-1.964	-1.834
6.625	-2.576	-2.486	-2.356
6.500	-2.231	-2.141	-2.011
6.375	-1.669	-1.579	-1.449
6.250	-1.059	-0.969	-0.839
6.125	-1.435	-1.345	-1.215
5.999	-1.002	-0.912	-0.782
5.875	-0.369	-0.279	-0.149
5.750	0.300	0.390	0.520
5.625	-0.048	0.042	0.172
5.500	0.427	0.517	0.647
5.375	1.191	1.281	1.411

ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.259	-3.169	-3.039
6.375	-3.065	-2.975	-2.845
6.250	-2.587	-2.497	-2.367
6.125	-2.558	-2.468	-2.338
6.000	-2.288	-2.198	-2.068
5.875	-2.022	-1.932	-1.802
5.750	-1.547	-1.457	-1.327
5.625	-1.620	-1.530	-1.400
5.500	-1.365	-1.275	-1.145
6.375	-1.056	5.375	-1.056
5.250	-0.549	-0.459	-0.329
5.125	-0.433	-0.343	-0.213
5.000	-0.086	0.004	0.134
4.875	0.285	0.375	0.505
4.750	0.820	0.910	1.040
4.625	0.945	1.035	1.165