Market Wrap-up

Rosie the Riveter: The October Chicago PMI remained in contractionary territory for the 37th month out of the last 38 months with a reading of 43.8 which is dismal.

The Talking Fed: Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, welcomed Chair Powell’s recent signal that a December interest rate cut isn’t assured.

 Not a good week for interest rates, it was widely believed of another 25 bp cut at the December FOMC meeting was dampened by J Powell saying a cut is not ‘a foregone conclusion’ sending uncertainty in to interest rate outlooks.

Although interest rates bumped higher the interest rate outlook while shaken isn’t likely to turn rates up in any significant way, Powell seems to relish generating uncertainty. There is six weeks before the next FOMC meeting.

This afternoon a Federal judge from Rhode Island blocked the Trump administration from ceasing to pay SNAP benefits during the government shutdown that was set to end tomorrow to cut off those food stamp benefits from 42 million Americans. That ruling takes a little heat off Congress to end the shutdown, Pressure was building for the impasse to end, even the largest union representing federal workers urged Democrats in Congress to end the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. No pay for air traffic controllers, other federal works and some military personal. There are cracks within Democrats that the end should happen now.

Once the shutdown is over there is a strong possibility rate markets will take it positively, removing uncertainty, but only to put the concerns back when Congress begins the appropriations bill in the weeks ahead. Ending the shutdown will fund the government until Nov 21st before appropriations debates begin. There won’t be a filibuster that will hold Congress hostage, straight up simple majorities will rule.

When the shutdown ends, how quickly will the data not reported for the last month be released?

Data next week includes the October employment report. September JOLTS job openings, Sept reports on manufacturing and services sectors, Q3 productivity and unit labor costs, as well as weekly claims and ADP jobs.

This week: The 10 year yield increased 9 bps, the 2 year note +12 bps; MBS prices fell 20 bps. The DJIA this week +356, NASDAQ +520, S&P +48. Gold declined $118.00, crude oil -$0.54, the dollar firmed, the index +0.83. Bitcoin had a volatile week but declined just 853.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.09% unch

5 year note: 3.71% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.61% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.66% unch

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.03 -4 bp (-8 bps from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.26 -2 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.84 +1 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 154.10 -0.05 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1528 -$0.0037

Dollar Index: 99.77 +0.24

Gold: $4,008.20 -$7.70

Bitcoin: 109,895 +3391

Crude Oil: $60.92 +$0.35

DJIA: 47,562.69 +40.52

NASDAQ: 23,724.96 +143.81

S&P 500: 6840.20 +17.86

SOFR Data 10/31: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.20185, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.30192, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34411, INDEX: 1.21838324

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,987.33	41.96	1.39%	5.67	35.45%	12:15 PM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	111,487.06	1,221.05	1.08%	4.82	40.15%	12:15 PM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,859.93	51.80	1.32%	5.31	37.70%	12:15 PM

 

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1537	0.00	0.24%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	153.9900	0.14	0.09%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3152	0.00	0.01%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6545	0.00	0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4010	0.00	0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8046	0.00	0.32%	4:59 P

 

USD-CZK	21.1155		0.07		0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.1125		0.06		0.24%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.6885		0.02		0.48%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	336.3700		0.51		0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	80.8511		1.12		1.41%	11:43 AM
USD-MXN		18.5500		0.02	0.12%	4:59 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING
ELITE 21-30 YEAR						ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE
7.500	-4.085	-3.995	-3.865	6.625	-3.429		-3.339	-3.209
7.375	-3.659	-3.569	-3.439	6.500	-3.276		-3.186	-3.056
7.250	-3.211	-3.121	-2.991	6.375	-3.001		-2.911	-2.781
7.125	-3.265	-3.175	-3.045	6.250	-2.499		-2.409	-2.279
6.999	-3.095	-3.005	-2.875	6.125	-2.394		-2.304	-2.174
6.875	-2.667	-2.577	-2.447	6.000	-2.151		-2.061	-1.931
6.750	-2.128	-2.038	-1.908	5.875	-1.874		-1.784	-1.654
6.625	-2.518	-2.428	-2.298	5.750	-1.386		-1.296	-1.166
6.500	-2.165	-2.075	-1.945	5.625	-1.369		-1.279	-1.149
6.375	-1.584	-1.494	-1.364	5.500	-1.114		-1.024	-0.894
6.250	-0.963	-0.873	-0.743	5.375	-0.782		-0.692	-0.562
6.125	-1.333	-1.243	-1.113	5.250	-0.262		-0.172	-0.042
5.999	-0.892	-0.802	-0.672	5.125	-0.123		-0.033	0.097
5.875	-0.264	-0.174	-0.044	5.000	0.249		0.339	0.469
5.750	0.459	0.549	0.679	4.875	0.626		0.716	0.846
5.625	0.236	0.326	0.456	4.750	1.154		1.244	1.374
5.500	0.745	0.835	0.965	4.625	1.195		1.285	1.415
5.375	1.555	1.645	1.775	4.500	1.594		1.684	1.814
5.250	2.406	2.496	2.626	4.375	2.001		2.091	2.221

 

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.05% 6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.81% -0.04% 5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% +0.00% 6.1% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 31, 2025

Mortgage Rates Recover Some of This Week’s Lost Ground Fri, Oct 31, 2025 3:43PM After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday’s rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday’s (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND’s rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the underlying bond market. In other words, Thursday’s rates had a bit of a cushion and lenders removed that cushion on Friday. A… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.81% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.01% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.89% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.03% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/31   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/30   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/29

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.57 +0.01 95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.05 -0.01 97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.002 3.932 4.780

Some Early Month-End Buying Fri, Oct 31, 2025 10:29AM With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there’s little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end.  If you’re curious about some of the month-end trading considerations that can impact bonds, we have a primer. Month-end can involve either buying or selling (or both).  Timing can… (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.47 -0.04 UMBS 5.0 99.57 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.05 -0.01 GNMA 4.5 97.78 +0.18 GNMA 5.0 99.71 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.88 +0.04 Pricing as of: 10/31 4:11PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.600 -0.007 5 YR Treasury 3.710 -0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.891 -0.008 10 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.002 30 YR Treasury 4.665 +0.008 Pricing as of: 10/31 4:11PM EST