MARKET WRAP-UP

“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”

Friday, November 28, 2025 2:00PM

Thin trading today with no data points and early closes this afternoon. Interest rates began unchanged frm Wednesday with markets continuing to believe a rate cut is coming in less than two weeks (Dec 10^th) with increasing numbers of current and former Fed officials saying a cut is necessary. Money markets are assigning roughly an 80% chance of a Fed cut in December. And looking forward there is an increasing belief now than the Fed will continue to cut rates at the end of January. There is little reason to price in a cut in January, in this market that is too far out to give it credence. The idea is fostered on the belief the economy is set to slow as employment declines (so far, the employment sector has slowed although not much).

Delayed US data showed retail sales rose less than expected in September, signaling potential weakness in consumer spending, while ADP employment indicators pointed to a sharp slowdown in labor market activity.

 

Last Tuesday the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q3 GDP, a report that analyses growth based on key incoming data. The report lowered growth frm 4.0% to 3.9% for the quarter, well above economists’ 2.8% target.

 

Over night the CME had an issue with its trading platforms, disrupting trading in futures markets. A data-center fault had affected multiple markets, with the issue lasting longer than a similar outage in 2019. According to reports the outage didn’t cause much of a problem given there are no key reports due today.

 

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +105, NASDAQ +90, S&P +18. 10 yr at 9:30 4.00% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 yr coupon at 9:30 -2 bps frm Wednesday’s close and +5 bps frm 9:30 Wednesday.

 

Stocks close at 1:00 pm, interest rates at 2:00 pm. Key economic releases still being released although when they come continues to keep traders edgy; next week’s calendar calls for PCE inflation next Friday. Next Monday Nov ISM manufacturing index.

 

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note:                 4.01% +1 bp
5 yr note:                   3.59% +2 bp
2 Yr note:                   3.49% +1 bp
30 yr bond:                4.65% +1 bp
30 yr FNMA 5.5:      @9:30  101.27 -2 bp (+5 bp frm 9:30 Wednesday)
30 yr FNMA 6.0:      @9:30  102.38 -1 bp (+2 bp frm 9:30 Wednesday)
30 yr GNMA 5.5:     @9:30  101.01 unch (-2 bp frm 9:30 Wednesday)
Dollar/Yen:              156.32 +0.02 yen
Dollar/Euro:            $1.1579 -$0.0017
Dollar Index:           99.63 +0.04
Gold:                        $4,240.30 +$38.70
Bitcoin:                    92,051 +611
Crude Oil:               $59.25 +$0.60
DJIA:                        47,557 +130
NASDAQ:                23,274 +59
S&P 500:                6828 +15

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,993.86	1.08	0.04%	1.58	37.09%	10:07 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	111,517.50	9.60	0.01%	1.65	40.91%	10:07 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,849.17	0.39	0.01%	2.30	37.74%	10:07 AM

 WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1582	0.00	0.11%	10:22 AM
USD-JPY	156.2800	0.03	0.02%	10:22 AM
GBP-USD	1.3220	0.00	0.15%	10:22 AM
AUD-USD	0.6540	0.00	0.09%	10:22 AM
USD-CAD	1.3968	0.01	0.45%	10:22 AM
USD-CHF	0.8055	0.00	0.09%	10:22 AM

 

USD-CZK	20.8649	0.02	0.11%	10:28 AM
USD-SKK	26.0053	0.03	0.10%	10:28 AM
USD-PLN	3.6551	0.01	0.20%	10:28 AM
USD-HUF	329.3600	0.42	0.13%	10:29 AM
USD-RUB	77.5871	0.38	0.49%	10:28 AM

 

USD-MXN

18.3161

0.04

0.21%

10:29 AM

 POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.375	-3.797	-3.707	-3.577
7.250	-3.347	-3.257	-3.127
7.125	-3.234	-3.144	-3.014
6.999	-3.008	-2.918	-2.788
6.875	-2.669	-2.579	-2.449
6.750	-2.170	-2.080	-1.950
6.625	-2.805	-2.715	-2.585
6.500	-2.444	-2.354	-2.224
6.375	-1.881	-1.791	-1.661
6.250	-1.269	-1.179	-1.049
6.125	-1.824	-1.734	-1.604
5.999	-1.393	-1.303	-1.173
5.875	-0.767	-0.677	-0.547
5.750	-0.094	-0.004	0.126
5.625	-0.397	-0.307	-0.177
5.500	0.079	0.169	0.299
5.375	0.841	0.931	1.061
5.250	1.677	1.767	1.897
5.125	1.888	1.978	2.108

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.612	-3.522	-3.392
6.375	-3.394	-3.304	-3.174
6.250	-2.895	-2.805	-2.675
6.125	-2.757	-2.667	-2.537
6.000	-2.487	-2.397	-2.267
5.875	-2.194	-2.104	-1.974
5.750	-1.716	-1.626	-1.496
5.625	-1.734	-1.644	-1.514
5.500	-1.465	-1.375	-1.245
5.375	-1.136	-1.046	-0.916
5.250	-0.615	-0.525	-0.395
5.125	-0.537	-0.447	-0.317
5.000	-0.175	-0.085	0.045
4.875	0.222	0.312	0.442
4.750	0.756	0.846	0.976
4.625	0.794	0.884	1.014
4.500	1.202	1.292	1.422
4.375	1.606	1.696	1.826
4.250	2.164	2.254	2.384

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.02% 6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.78% +0.03% 5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.00% 6.1% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 26, 2025

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows Wed, Nov 26, 2025 2:52PM Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.   (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.78% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.85% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.71% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.87% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/26   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.26% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.54% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/20   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.03 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 5.83% +0.13 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.39% -0.07 0.42 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/19

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.90 +0.01 95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.29 +0.00 97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 3.998 +0.002 3.932 4.780

Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds Wed, Nov 26, 2025 8:55AM Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading.  The culprit: both of this morning’s 8:30am ET economic releases.  Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f’cast). The other report, Durable Goods, is more stale (pre-shutdown), but … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.04 +0.02 UMBS 5.0 99.90 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.29 +0.00 GNMA 4.5 97.97 -0.02 GNMA 5.0 99.91 -0.08 GNMA 5.5 101.03 +0.03 Pricing as of: 11/26 3:11PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.481 +0.025 5 YR Treasury 3.573 +0.003 7 YR Treasury 3.757 +0.005 10 YR Treasury 3.998 +0.002 30 YR Treasury 4.645 -0.004 Pricing as of: 11/26 3:11PM EST