Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 January Coupon is down -14 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

There were no domestic economic releases today.

The Talking Fed:

Dovish:

President of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson, believes that the Fed is being restrictive and has room to cut rates, signaling further rate cuts coming in addition to the 25bps cut a few days ago (She will be a VOTING member in 2026).

Hawkish:

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she would prefer interest rates to be slightly more restrictive to keep putting pressure on inflation, which is still running too high (She will be a VOTING member in 2026).

Mixed:

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Alan Goolsbee (voted against the December 10 rate cut) he said he was against “front loading” interest rate cuts. However, (talking out of the other-side of his mouth) he said “I’m pretty optimistic that for 2026 rates will be able to be a fair bit lower than they are today,” (He will NOT be a voting member in 2026)

The long end of the yield curve increased today, pushing the 10 year note to the very critical level we have been pointing out, 4.20%. The mid and short end continue to hold well with still some optimism for a rate cut in January and the Fed buying $40B of treasury bills today to bolster its balance sheet.

There wasn’t any major news today for the markets. Some key daily commentaries were not even published today.

Next Week’s Calendar: On Monday the Dec Empire State manufacturing index. The KEY news next week occurs on Tuesday, the BLS will report Nov non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, October retail sales, Nov housing starts and permits, Nov industrial production and capacity utilization, S&P global PMI manufacturing and services. Wednesday MBA mortgage apps., Nov retail sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims Nov CPI inflation. Friday Nov personal income and spending, Nove PCE inflation, Nov existing home sales, Dec final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. Next Wednesday Treasury will auction $13B of 20 year bonds.

The plethora of data next week will provide a big platform for the long end of the yield curve, the 10 and 30; a strong measurement of whether the 10 year will drop from its major support at 4.20% or breach it driving the 10 year toward 4.30%.

This Week: The 10 year note yield increased 5 bps, the 2 year note yield declined 3 bps, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon price 18 bps lower. The DJIA tis week +503, NASDAQ -383, S&P +57. Gold up $8.00 even with the dollar slide, crude oil continues to decline, down $2.57. Bitcoin this week up 701, the dollar index fell 0.63.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.19% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.75% unch

2 year note: 3.54% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.85% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.95 -15 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.37 -7 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100/78 -7 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 155.84 +0.26 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1744 +$0.0004

Dollar Index: 98.38 +0.04

Gold: $4,326.10 +$13.10

Bitcoin: 90,159 -1655

Crude Oil: $57.40 -$0.20

DJIA: 48,458.05 -245.96

NASDAQ: 23,195.17 -398.69

S&P 500: 6927.41 -73.59

SOFR Data 12/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.97416, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.12400, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.26973, INDEX: 1.22405960

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,079.15	17.15	0.56%	1.85	35.25%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	113,797.30	340.80	0.30%	0.92	39.24%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,954.98	16.89	0.43%	1.56	36.39%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted			Change, not sorted			Net Change, not sorted				Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1740			0.00			0.02%				4:59 PM
USD-JPY	155.8100			0.22			0.14%				4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3371			0.00			0.13%				4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6652			0.00			0.18%				4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3772			0.00			0.01%				4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.7958			0.00			0.05%				4:59 PM
USD-CZK			20.6588		0.04				0.17%		4:59 PM
USD-SKK			25.6609		0.00				0.02%		4:59 PM
USD-PLN			3.5978		0.00				0.03%		4:59 PM
USD-HUF			327.8700		1.77				0.54%		4:59 PM
USD-RUB			80.0500		0.27				0.34%		4:58 PM
USD-MXN		18.0119				0.04		0.22%		4:59 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.500	-4.475		-4.385		-4.255
7.375	-4.037		-3.947		-3.817
7.250	-3.583		-3.493		-3.363
7.125	-3.524		-3.434		-3.304
6.999	-3.371		-3.281		-3.151
6.875	-2.877		-2.787		-2.657
6.750	-2.317		-2.227		-2.097
6.625	-2.644		-2.554		-2.424
6.500	-2.278		-2.188		-2.058
6.375	-1.686		-1.596		-1.466
6.250	-1.052		-0.962		-0.832
6.125	-1.394		-1.304		-1.174
5.999	-0.967		-0.877		-0.747
5.875	-0.334		-0.244		-0.114
5.750	0.420		0.510		0.640
5.625	0.262		0.352		0.482
5.500	0.793		0.883		1.013
5.375	1.624		1.714		1.844
5.250	2.484		2.574		2.704
ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.625		-3.786		-3.696		-3.566
6.500		-3.612		-3.522		-3.392
6.375		-3.338		-3.248		-3.118
6.250		-2.835		-2.745		-2.615
6.125		-2.641		-2.551		-2.421
6.000		-2.386		-2.296		-2.166
5.875		-2.094		-2.004		-1.874
5.750		-1.603		-1.513		-1.383
5.625		-1.521		-1.431		-1.301
5.500		-1.252		-1.162		-1.032
5.375		-0.909		-0.819		-0.689
5.250		-0.386		-0.296		-0.166
5.125		-0.304		-0.214		-0.084
5.000		0.070		0.160		0.290
4.875		0.460		0.550		0.680
4.750		0.991		1.081		1.211
4.625		1.014		1.104		1.234
4.500		1.418		1.508		1.638
4.375		1.828		1.918		2.048

30 Yr. Fixed

6.32% +0.06%

6.13%

7.26%

15 Yr. Fixed

5.77% +0.01%

5.6%

6.59%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.43% +0.01%

6.1%

7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 12, 2025

Anyone Who Tells You They Know What Happens Next For Rates is Lying

Fri, Dec 12, 2025 4:18PM

Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut. We’ve beaten this horse to death, but here are the two key reasons Fed rate cuts don’t necessarily result in lower mortgage rates, in as few words as possible: Different Kinds of RatesFed Funds Rate = loans of 24 hours or less. Mortgage rates = loans up to 30 years. Rates can have vastly different behavior when they apply to loans of vastly different time frames … (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.32%	+0.06	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.77%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.90%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.43%	+0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.01%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.92%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 12/12

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.22%	+0.03	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.54%	+0.10	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/11

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.33%	+0.01	0.60
15 Yr. Fixed	5.71%	-0.02	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.46%	+0.06	0.35
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/10

UMBS 30YR 5.0

99.20 -0.17

95.05

100.11

UMBS 30YR 5.5

100.93 -0.16

97.47

101.40

10 YR Treasury

4.195 +0.039

3.932

4.780

Choose Your Own Market Movement Adventure.

Fri, Dec 12, 2025 9:41AM

There’s a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it’s becoming more pronounced today. We can consider a few different reasons with the most basic being that the Fed rate cut outlook keeps shorter-term yields locked down at lower levels thus forcing the long end of the curve to absorb more of the selling … (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	97.04	-0.29
UMBS 5.0	99.20	-0.17
UMBS 5.5	100.93	-0.16
GNMA 4.5	96.97	-0.28
GNMA 5.0	99.42	-0.14
GNMA 5.5	100.71	-0.13
Pricing as of: 12/12 4:51PM EST