MARKETS WRAP-UP
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lighter than expected, 214K versus estimates of 223K with the 4 week moving average dropping to 216K. But Continuing Claims surged from 1.885M to 1.923M.
Taking it to the House: Weekly Mortgage Applications fell by -5.0% with Refinances down -5.6% and Purchases down -3.7%.
Treasury Dump: We have a 7 year note auction today at 1 pm ET.
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On Wednesday interest rates declined after once again testing 4.20% and held; it is the highest rate in December. This morning rates began unchanged and will likely stay that way through the day. MBS prices started better after increasing 20 bps Wednesday with the 10 year yield declining 4 bps. Stock indexes improved Wednesday, this morning in futures trading the key indexes generally unchanged.
The improvement in rates Wednesday and this morning is more a technical move after finding strong resistance at 4.20% even with weekly jobless claims declining on Wednesday (214K -10K) from the previous week and the lowest weekly claims since last January; continuing claims however did increase. There isn’t likely to be a rate cut in January, looking at comments from various Fed officials recently the Fed remains divided about cutting rates next year. As the year ends the outlook for the economy, employment and inflation is uncertain. The Fed remains data dependent, recent data reports are skewed, delayed and some woMarket Wrap-up
With little to trade on interest rates ended unchanged today. Rates began better following through from Wednesday’s improvements, heading into the weekend with nothing to motivate traders it was a quiet session. Stock indexes also flat today.
Next week’s data: Monday Nov pending home sales. Tuesday FHFA October housing price index, Case/Shiller Oct home price index, Dec Chicago pm mgrs. index, Dec Conference Board consumer confidence, Oct JOLTS job openings, FOMC minutes from Dec 10trh. Wednesday weekly jobless claims, weekly jobless claims. Thursday New Years. Friday Nov construction spending. The main data next week weekly claims, JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence and FOMC minutes.
Mortgage rates will remain in the tight range, if the bellwether 10 year note stays under 4.20% next week rates should trade between 4.20% and 4.10%. The Fed isn’t going t move rates at the January 28th FOMC meeting.
This Week: The 10 year note -3 bps, 2 year note unchanged, FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon this week increased 17 bps. The DJIA +866, NASDAQ +285, S&P +95. Gold increased $183.00, crude oil +$0.18. The dollar index declined 0.62. Bitcoin -378.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.13% unch
5 year note: 3.70% -2 bp
2 year note: 3.49% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.82% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: 99.82 unch (-8 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.42 +3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.0: 99.86 +2 bp
Dollar/Yen: 156.48 +0.67 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1780 0$ 0.0004
Dollar Index: 98.00 +0.03
Gold: $4,556.40 +$53.60
Bitcoin: 87,588 -246
Crude Oil: $56.83 -$1.52
DJIA: 48,710.97 -20.19
NASDAQ: 23,593.10 -20.21
S&P 500: 6929.94 -2.11
SOFR Data 12/26: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.84341, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.03455, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.21851, INDEX: 1.22580972
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,155.57 | 17.94 | 0.57% | 5.12 | 43.16% | 12/23/2025 |
| WIG:IND
|
116,148.70 | 423.10 | 0.36% | 3.83 | 45.47% | 12/23/2025 |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,052.86 | 17.89 | 0.44% | 4.93 | 43.66% | 12/23/2025 |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1779 | 0.00 | 0.14% | 2:00 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
155.9700 | 0.26 | 0.17% | 2:00 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3502 | 0.00 | 0.12% | 2:00 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6705 | 0.00 | 0.04% | 2:00 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3671 | 0.00 | 0.12% | 2:00 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7881 | 0.00 | 0.04% | 2:00 P |
| USD-MXN
|
17.9464 | 0.05 | 0.26% | 2:00 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.5941 | 0.01 | 0.05% | 2:04 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.5760 | 0.03 | 0.13% | 2:04 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.5778 | 0.00 | 0.04% | 2:04 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
329.9300 | 1.45 | 0.44% | 2:04 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
78.4406 | 0.29 | 0.37% | 2:04 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -4.524 | -4.434 | -4.304 |
| 7.375 | -4.076 | -3.986 | -3.856 |
| 7.250 | -3.609 | -3.519 | -3.389 |
| 7.125 | -3.551 | -3.461 | -3.331 |
| 6.999 | -3.346 | -3.256 | -3.126 |
| 6.875 | -2.948 | -2.858 | -2.728 |
| 6.750 | -2.400 | -2.310 | -2.180 |
| 6.625 | -2.935 | -2.845 | -2.715 |
| 6.500 | -2.575 | -2.485 | -2.355 |
| 6.375 | -2.002 | -1.912 | -1.782 |
| 6.250 | -1.378 | -1.288 | -1.158 |
| 6.125 | -1.797 | -1.707 | -1.577 |
| 5.999 | -1.393 | -1.303 | -1.173 |
| 5.875 | -0.752 | -0.662 | -0.532 |
| 5.750 | -0.040 | 0.050 | 0.180 |
| 5.625 | -0.189 | -0.099 | 0.031 |
| 5.500 | 0.285 | 0.375 | 0.505 |
| 5.375 | 1.090 | 1.180 | 1.310 |
| 5.250 | 1.948 | 2.038 | 2.168 |
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