Market Wrap-up

Taking it to the House: New Home Sales for December were 745K versus estimates of 730K.

Inflation Nation: Houston, we have a problem. The old (December) PCE data was higher than expected with the Headline PCE increasing by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and increased from 2.8% to 2.9% on a YOY basis. The Core (ex food and energy) PCE, which is the Fed’s measure of inflation also increased by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis, on a YOY basis it now has a “3” handle by rising from 2.8% to 3.0% versus estimates of 2.9%.

Incomes and Spending: December Personal Incomes hit 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3% which is a small downgrade from November’s pace of 0.4%. Personal Spending was 0.4% across the board.Report Card: The preliminary 4th QTR GDP was HALF of market expectations and was up only 1.4% versus estimates of 2.8%, Prices Paid matched market expectations at 2.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The final/revised Feb UofM Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 57.3 to 56.6. 1YR Inflation expectations dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%.

 

December PCE inflation released this morning was stronger than estimates, only slightly but enough to increase the idea the Fed will hold off cutting rates. Yesterday weekly jobless claims were 23K lower than the previous week, Q4 2025 GDP though to have slowed from Q3s 4.4% growth to 2.8% but weakened to 1.4%. If it wasn’t for the US preparing to launch a military action against the Iranian regime it is likely interest rates would have increased yesterday and today based on the data.

The Supreme Court took the tariffs case last November, today released its finding that the president does not have the power to levy reciprocal, tariffs although the court did not rule the $175B of collected tariffs must be returned. Trump immediately countered by announcing a new 10% global tariff via executive order, as he said he would when the Supreme Court took up the case.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday December factory orders. Tuesday $69B 2 year auction, December Case/Shiller home price index, February consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, MBA mortgage applications, January new home sales, $70B 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, $44B 7 year note auction. Friday January PPI inflation, February Chicago purchasing managers index. The data next week not as heavy as this week. Next week traders will focus on developments on the US/Iran stand-off. Trump saying an initial reaction will be strategic, after that, if necessary, a full-fledged attack similar in scope to the Iraq war.

This week: The 10 year note rate increased 2 bps, the 2 year note increased 8 bps. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon this week -2 bps. The DJIA +125, NASDAQ +339, S&P +64. Gold this week increased $59.00, crude oil jumped $5.93. The dollar index increased 0.88, Bitcoin -1,170.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.08% unch

5 year note: 3.65% +1 bp

2 year note: 3.49% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.72% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: 100.33 +8 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.56 +3 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.0: 100.20 +8 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 155.01 +0.03 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1786 +$0.0013

Dollar Index: 97.79 -0.14

Gold: $5,109.40 +$112.00

Bitcoin: 67,567 +479

Crude Oil: $66.49 +$0.06

DJIA: 49,625.97 +230.81

NASDAQ: 22,886.07 +203.34

S&P 500: 6909.51 +47.62

SOFR Data 02/20: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66521, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.76062, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.00768, INDEX: 1.23284171

 

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,383.82	1.51	0.04%	2.55	29.46%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	125,078.00	197.20	0.16%	2.24	34.55%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,333.31	3.40	0.08%	2.29	30.10%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1767	0.00	0.05%	8:14 PM
USD-JPY	155.1200	0.11	0.07%	8:15 PM
GBP-USD	1.3458	0.00	0.05%	8:14 PM
AUD-USD	0.7052	0.00	0.06%	8:14 PM
USD-CAD	1.3692	0.00	0.09%	8:14 PM
USD-CHF	0.7757	0.00	0.09%	8:14 PM

 

USD-CZK	20.6084	0.02	0.09%	8:17 PM
USD-SKK	25.6035	0.02	0.06%	8:17 PM
USD-PLN	3.5890	0.00	0.10%	8:17 PM
USD-HUF	322.4200	0.29	0.09%	8:17 PM
USD-RUB	76.7668	0.07	0.09%	8:14 PM

 

USD-MXN

17.2592

0.01

0.04%

8:13 PM

 

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.05% +0.00% 6.01% 7.08% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.62% +0.00% 5.55% 6.48% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.29% +0.01% 6.1% 7.35%

Thu, Feb 19, 2026 3:33PM For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we’re splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn’t technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie’s su… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.05% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.62% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.29% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.38% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.67% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/19   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.01% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.35% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/19   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/28

UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.28 +0.03 95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.55 -0.01 98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.074 -0.003 3.932 4.590

Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really…) Thu, Feb 19, 2026 8:53AM Yesterday’s end-of-day recap bore the title “Half-Hearted Correction Continues.” It turns out that should have been the title for this morning’s commentary as it’s a better description of this morning’s trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today’s case, bonds are weaker “just because.” Jobless Claims data (206k … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.52 -0.02 UMBS 5.0 100.28 +0.03 UMBS 5.5 101.55 -0.01 GNMA 4.5 98.28 -0.07 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 101.15 -0.05 Pricing as of: 2/19 4:06PM EST     US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.468 +0.016 5 YR Treasury 3.646 -0.003 7 YR Treasury 3.843 -0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.074 -0.003 30 YR Treasury 4.704 -0.003 Pricing as of: 2/19 4:06PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.125	-3.272		-3.182		-3.052
6.999	-3.029		-2.939		-2.809
6.875	-2.625		-2.535		-2.405
6.750	-2.143		-2.053		-1.923
6.625	-2.864		-2.774		-2.644
6.500	-2.545		-2.455		-2.325
6.375	-1.995		-1.905		-1.775
6.250	-1.396		-1.306		-1.176
6.125	-1.933		-1.843		-1.713
5.999	-1.550		-1.460		-1.330
5.875	-0.931		-0.841		-0.711
5.750	-0.240		-0.150		-0.020
5.625	-0.637		-0.547		-0.417
5.500	-0.158		-0.068		0.062
5.375	0.556		0.646		0.776
5.250	1.376		1.466		1.596
5.125	1.250		1.340		1.470
5.000	1.816		1.906		2.036
4.875	2.663		2.753		2.883
ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.500		-3.325		-3.235		-3.105
6.375		-3.057		-2.967		-2.837
6.250		-2.592		-2.502		-2.372
6.125		-2.709		-2.619		-2.489
6.000		-2.455		-2.365		-2.235
5.875		-2.153		-2.063		-1.933
5.750		-1.669		-1.579		-1.449
5.625		-1.624		-1.534		-1.404
5.500		-1.348		-1.258		-1.128
5.375		-1.015		-0.925		-0.795
5.250		-0.492		-0.402		-0.272
5.125		-0.499		-0.409		-0.279
5.000		-0.127		-0.037		0.093
4.875		0.259		0.349		0.479
4.750		0.799		0.889		1.019
4.625		1.037		1.127		1.257
4.500		1.447		1.537		1.667
4.375		1.852		1.942		2.072
4.250		2.408		2.498		2.628