“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 March Coupon is down -6 BPS at 3:10 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Feb Challenger Job Cuts saw a big drop from January’s level of 108K down to 48K. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims hit 213K versus estimates of 215K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 215K. Continuing Claims rose from 1.822M to 1.868M.

Rosie the Riveter: The preliminary 4th QTR Non Farm Productivity was almost half the market expectations of 4.8% with a reading of 2.8% and that was due to a surge in Unit Labor Costs of 2.8% versus estimates of only 0.2%.

Genco Olive Oil: January Import Prices MOM increased by 0.2% versus estimates of 0.2% and Export Prices MOM increased by 0.6% versus estimates of 0.3%.

On Deck for Tomorrow: Big Jobs Friday! Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings. Average Workweek Hours, Laborforce Participation Rate, U6 Underemployment Rate, Retail Sales, Retail Sales Ex Autos and the Control Group.

Prior to the 8:30 Feb jobs data the 10 yr note yield continued to increase, at 8:15 4.18% 4 bps. February employment lost huge numbers of jobs. M/m jobs expected +60K reported -92K, Jan jobs revised frm 130K to 126K. Private jobs thought to be +65K were down 88K. The unemployment rate at 4.4% as expected, up frm 4.3%. Average hourly earnings +0.4% unchanged from Jan, yr/yr earnings +3.8% frm 3.7% in Jan. At 8:45 the note at 4.12% but not sustainable (see below for 10:00 am level).

Jan retail sales expected -0.4% reported -0.2%, ex vehicles sales 0.0% as were Dec sales.

Over the last week US interest rates have shot up with the price of oil suggesting the Fed is less likely to cut rates any time soon, The 10 last Friday 3.96%, prior to today’s employment report at 4.18%. Since last Friday, the FNMA 5.0 coupon as lost 73 bps, 30 yr mortgage rates at 6.22% frm 5.98% last Friday. The price of crude oil last Friday $67.24%, this morning early $87.49 +$20.00.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller commenting this morning said he doesn’t expect the Iran war to have a sustained impact on inflation. “For us thinking about policy going forward, this is unlikely to cause sustained inflation,” Waller told Bloomberg Television. “That’s one reason we don’t look at energy prices. When we look at core, core is a better predictor of future inflation,” he added, referring to a measure of inflation that strips out volatile energy and food prices.

There was a report this morning that someone suggested the Treasury should trade oil in the futures market, obviously to buy crude contracts to bring the price down. We do not want the government involved with public markets.

Rate markets began higher this morning but found support when BLS reported jobs not only didn’t gain but were down 92K, private jobs thought to be +65K lost 86K jobs. The very weak jobs rekindled the idea of Fed rate cuts later this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller commenting this morning said he doesn’t expect the Iran war to have a sustained impact on inflation. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that the weak February jobs report bolsters the rationale for the central bank to lower interest rates further.

Trump made it clear that there won’t be any deal with Iran without “unconditional surrender” by Iran.

Crude oil topped $90.00 this afternoon, oil analysts talking $100.00.

Presently the Iran attack has all forms of investors not knowing what to do, buy or sell but what markets? Haven’t experienced as much across the board uncertainty for decades, even reactions to COVID were tame compared to the situation now. There isn’t much doubt that Trump is dead serious regardless the pushbacks. 47 years of failed policies to reign in Iran’s terrorist activities appears to be on its last throws.

On the BLS employment data this morning, can it be believed? BLS recent history of reporting employment gets a big F when compared to massive revisions over the last two years. From a trading perspective you go with the report, no matter how skeptical.

Next week’s calendar is highlighted with more inflation news and a mound of key data. Tuesday Feb NFIB business optimism, Feb existing home sales, 3 yr note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA apps., Feb CPI inflation, Feb Treasury budget balance,10 yr note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Jan housing starts and permits, Jan US trade deficit, 10 yr note auction. Friday Jan durable good, Jan personal income and spending, Jan PCE inflation, Q4 GDP second estimate, Jan JOLTS job openings, Mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This Week: The 10 yr note yield +18 bp, the 2 yr +18 bp. FNMA 5.0 30 yr coupon -71 bps. The DJIA this week -1,476, NASDAQ -280, S&P -139. Gold price down $1114.00 crude ol +$23.41. The dollar strengthened this week the index +1.45 a sizeable move, Bitcoin improved 2,214 this week.

The weekend promises to be interesting with Iran and US activities.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 yr note:                  4.14% unch
5 yr note:                    3.73% unch
2 Yr note:                   3,57% -2 bp
30 yr bond:                4.77% +1 b p
30 yr FNMA 5.0:        99.73 -8 bp (+14 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr FNMA 5.5:        101.21 -5 bp (+2 bp frm 9:30)
30 yr GNMA 5.0:      100.03 +11 bp (+17 bp frm 9:30)
Dollar/Yen:               157.91 +0.35 yen
Dollar/Euro:             $1.1604 -$0.0006
Dollar Index:            99.02 -0.30
Gold:                         $5,163.20 +$84.50
Bitcoin:                     67,785 -3409
Crude Oil:                $90.65 +$9.54
DJIA:                         47,501.55 -453.19
NASDAQ:               22,387.68 -361.31
S&P 500:                6740.00 -90.71

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,253.72	72.82	2.19%	4.13	26.06%	9:57 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	120,306.00	2,619.20	2.13%	4.06	31.55%	9:57 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,150.22	92.39	2.18%	4.40	26.90%	9:56 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1579	0.00	0.26%	10:10 AM
USD-JPY	157.6500	0.06	0.04%	10:10 AM
GBP-USD	1.3354	0.00	0.03%	10:10 AM
AUD-USD	0.6999	0.00	0.13%	10:09 AM
USD-CAD	1.3639	0.00	0.29%	10:10 AM
USD-CHF	0.7789	0.00	0.28%	10:10 AM

USD-CZK	21.0779	0.08	0.36%	10:11 AM
USD-SKK	26.0140	0.06	0.25%	10:11 AM
USD-PLN	3.6945	0.01	0.33%	10:12 AM
USD-HUF	340.3400	6.19	1.85%	10:11 AM
USD-RUB	78.9375	0.09	0.11%	10:11 AM

USD-MXN

17.8261

0.10

0.59%

10:14 AM

30 Yr. Fixed

6.13% +0.06%

5.99%

7.08%

15 Yr. Fixed

5.75% +0.02%

5.55%

6.48%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.42% +0.02%

6.1%

7.2%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 5, 2026

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up Near Recent Highs

Thu, Mar 5, 2026 3:02PM

Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices. That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat–possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but … (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.13%	+0.06	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.75%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.72%	+0.05	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.42%	+0.02	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	5.42%	+0.03	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.74%	+0.05	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/5

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.00%	+0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.43%	-0.01	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/5

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.17%	-0.04	0.56
15 Yr. Fixed	5.50%	-0.15	0.73
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.21%	-0.09	0.27
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/18

UMBS 30YR 5.0

99.81 -0.16

95.71

100.50

UMBS 30YR 5.5

101.26 -0.11

98.11

101.64

10 YR Treasury

4.138 +0.038

3.932

4.590

10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness

Thu, Mar 5, 2026 9:24AM

The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week’s econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow’s jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnight selling … (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	97.83	-0.23
UMBS 5.0	99.81	-0.16
UMBS 5.5	101.26	-0.11
GNMA 4.5	97.90	-0.16
GNMA 5.0	99.95	-0.13
GNMA 5.5	101.00	-0.15
Pricing as of: 3/5 3:41PM EST

US Treasury	Yield	Change
2 YR Treasury	3.593	+0.046
5 YR Treasury	3.734	+0.041
7 YR Treasury	3.926	+0.054
10 YR Treasury	4.138	+0.038
30 YR Treasury	4.747	+0.004
Pricing as of: 3/5 3:41PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-4.284	-4.194	-4.064
7.375	-3.829	-3.739	-3.609
7.250	-3.368	-3.278	-3.148
7.125	-3.357	-3.267	-3.137
6.999	-3.061	-2.971	-2.841
6.875	-2.596	-2.506	-2.376
6.750	-2.117	-2.027	-1.897
6.625	-2.712	-2.622	-2.492
6.500	-2.328	-2.238	-2.108
6.375	-1.766	-1.676	-1.546
6.250	-1.153	-1.063	-0.933
6.125	-1.604	-1.514	-1.384
5.999	-1.185	-1.095	-0.965
5.875	-0.543	-0.453	-0.323
5.750	0.142	0.232	0.362
5.625	-0.058	0.032	0.162
5.500	0.396	0.486	0.616
5.375	1.179	1.269	1.399
5.250	2.033	2.123	2.253