Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’ tale of the tape:
Jobs:
March Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 178K versus estimates of 60K.
Feb NFP revised lower from -92K to -133K.
Jan NFP revised higher from 126K to 160K.
The rolling three month average is now: 68K.
Wages:
The national average hourly earnings rate increased by 9 cents to $37.38.
Average Hourly Earnings MOM up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.4%.
Average Hourly Earnings YOY up 3.5% versus estimates of 3.7%.
Employment:
Headline Unemployment dropped to 4.3% versus estimates of 4.4%.
The U6 Underemployment rate 8% versus 7.9%.
Labor force Participation Rate 61.9% versus 62.0%.
This morning’s BLS employment report rocked the bond market for about an hour, jobs exploded according to BLS. By 12 pm ET when the bond market closed the 10 year note ended slightly higher from yesterday at 4.34%, MBS prices down 13 bps, unchanged from 9:30 am.
The stock and energy markets closed for Good Friday. The bond market will close at 12 pm ET. We will post the interest rate closes at 12:30 pm today.
The March BLS employment release at 8:30 am was one of those shockers that BLS comes up with occasionally. Non-farm payrolls expected +51K increased 178K, the unemployment rate estimates were +4.4% unchanged from February, reported 4.3%. Private jobs estimates were +56K, reported +186K. Average hourly earnings month/month +0.2% against estimates of +0.3%, year/year 3.5% against 3.8% expected. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year.
The 10 year prior to the employment data 4.32% +1 bp, the initial reaction drove the note to 4.37%; MBS price -25 bp. There isn’t enough reason to believe the data, that amount of change isn’t realistic. Other employment data doesn’t square with BLS that has a strong history of reporting exaggerated data, making corrections to previously reported employment reports. (see below for 9:30 am levels)
HAPPY EASTER
PRICES @ 12:00 PM
10 year note: 4.34% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.98% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.83% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.92% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.56 -13 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.09 +13 bp (+25 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.80 +11 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 159.60 +0.77 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1538 -$0.0052
Dollar Index: 100.02 +0.32
Gold: $4,689.30 -$121.80
Bitcoin: 66,967 -1175
Crude Oil: $111.45 +$11.21 (highest price in over a year)
DJIA: 46,504.60 -61.14
NASDAQ: 21,879.18 +38.23
S&P 500: 6582.69+7.37
SOFR Data 04/03: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65021, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.67418, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.85721, INDEX: 1.23798018
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.700 | -3.610 | -3.480 |
| 7.375 | -3.223 | -3.133 | -3.003 |
| 7.250 | -2.727 | -2.637 | -2.507 |
| 7.125 | -2.665 | -2.575 | -2.445 |
| 6.999 | -2.360 | -2.270 | -2.140 |
| 6.875 | -1.843 | -1.753 | -1.623 |
| 6.750 | -1.259 | -1.169 | -1.039 |
| 6.625 | -1.625 | -1.535 | -1.405 |
| 6.500 | -1.281 | -1.191 | -1.061 |
| 6.375 | -0.659 | -0.569 | -0.439 |
| 6.250 | -0.003 | 0.087 | 0.217 |
| 6.125 | -0.281 | -0.191 | -0.061 |
| 5.999 | 0.124 | 0.214 | 0.344 |
| 5.875 | 0.852 | 0.942 | 1.072 |
| 5.750 | 1.615 | 1.705 | 1.835 |
| 5.625 | 1.423 | 1.513 | 1.643 |
| 5.500 | 1.998 | 2.088 | 2.218 |
| 5.375 | 2.850 | 2.940 | 3.070 |
| 5.250 | 3.736 | 3.826 | 3.956 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -2.356 | -2.266 | -2.136 |
| 6.375 | -2.096 | -2.006 | -1.876 |
| 6.250 | -1.594 | -1.504 | -1.374 |
| 6.125 | -1.475 | -1.385 | -1.255 |
| 6.000 | -1.234 | -1.144 | -1.014 |
| 5.875 | -0.944 | -0.854 | -0.724 |
| 5.750 | -0.424 | -0.334 | -0.204 |
| 5.625 | -0.303 | -0.213 | -0.083 |
| 5.500 | -0.015 | 0.075 | 0.205 |
| 5.375 | 0.329 | 0.419 | 0.549 |
| 5.250 | 0.871 | 0.961 | 1.091 |
| 5.125 | 1.289 | 1.379 | 1.509 |
| 5.000 | 1.644 | 1.734 | 1.864 |
| 4.875 | 2.016 | 2.106 | 2.236 |
| 4.750 | 2.579 | 2.669 | 2.799 |
| 4.625 | 2.522 | 2.612 | 2.742 |
| 4.500 | 2.920 | 3.010 | 3.140 |
| 4.375 | 3.332 | 3.422 | 3.552 |
| 4.250 | 3.926 | 4.016 | 4.146 |
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted | ||||
| WIG20:IND
|
3,433.65 | 30.73 | 0.90% | 5.25 | 24.95% | 11:15 AM | ||||
| WIG:IND
|
125,603.00 | 1,031.40 | 0.83% | 4.08 | 28.21% | 11:15 AM | ||||
| WIG30:IND
|
4,345.26 | 39.23 | 0.91% | 4.38 | 39.18% | 11:15 AM | ||||
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted | ||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.1539 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 9:33 PM | ||||||
| USD-JPY
|
159.6100 | 0.01 | 0.01% | 9:33 PM | ||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3231 | 0.00 | 0.03% | 9:33 PM | ||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6912 | 0.00 | 0.01% | 9:33 PM | ||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3922 | 0.00 | 0.01% | 9:33 PM | ||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.7989 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 9:33 P | ||||||
| USD-MXN
|
17.8607 | 0.01 | 0.05% | 9:34 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.2450 | 0.00 | 0.01% | 9:37 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.1113 | 0.00 | 0.01% | 9:37 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7077 | 0.00 | 0.05% | 9:37 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
333.0500 | 0.02 | 0.01% | 9:37 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
80.4813 | 0.14 | 0.18% | 7:41 PM |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL | 0.74% | 1.92% | 6.50% | 22.66% | 47.93% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL |