Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 June Coupon is down -44 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Rosie the Riveter: The May Fed Empire Manufacturing Index jumped to 19.6, but the problem is that Prices Paid shot up to 62.6 which is the highest in 4 years! April Industrial Production was double the consensus estimates 0.7% versus estimates of 0.3% and Capacity Utilization improved to 76.1% versus estimates of 75.8%.

Trump went to China, a lot of comments but not much substance. Interest rates exploded this week as inflation concerns boiled over, one of the biggest moves in rates this year moving the 10 year note and mortgage rates to the highest in a year (May 22nd 2025). Oil prices increased with nothing but rhetoric from Trump and Xi. Trump now saying he is becoming disappointed with Iran. The president is floundering, unable to make a move, continuing his brash talk but doing nothing while Iran continues to beef up its forces and repeats the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran.

Neither Trump nor Xi want Iran to have a nuclear weapon; China has little reason to interfere now with the US leading the way yet unwilling to take the giant step; the US in a serious bind presently.

CNBC in dream land; today saying China and the U.S. have played a big role in easing the impact of the oil supply disruption, according to the International Energy Agency and Wall Street analysts. Crude oil this week up $10.00.

Next Week the economic calendar is thin, unlike this week’s inflation shocks.

This week: The 10 note rate increased 23 bps this week, the 2 year note increased 19 bps; MBS mortgage prices down 111 bps. The DJIA this week -83, NASDAQ -22, S&P. 10 Gold -$174, crude oil +$10.25. The dollar index +1.40, bitcoin -188.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.60% +12 bp

5 year note: 4.26% +10 bp

2 year note: 4.09% +6 bp

30 year bond: 5.13% +10 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.65 -56 bp (-20 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.55 -39 bp (-15 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.12 -46 bp (-13 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 158.72 +0.34 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1623 -$0.0046

Dollar Index: 99.28 +0.46

Gold: $4,558.70 -$126.60

Bitcoin: 79,081 -2353

Crude Oil: $105.46 +$4.29

DJIA: 49,526.11 -537.35

NASDAQ: 26,225.14 -410.08

S&P 500: 7408.50 -92.74

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,545.38	86.18	2.37%	3.29	25.94%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	131,378.50	2,455.84	1.84%	1.92	27.26%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,495.82	92.30	2.01%	3.16	23.77%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

USD-MXN

17.3389

0.12

0.69%

4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	20.9155	0.08	0.38%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	25.9141	0.10	0.38%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.6522	0.02	0.42%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	311.2200	4.45	1.45%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	72.9855	0.19	0.26%	4:55 PM

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	0.74%	1.92%	6.50%	22.66%	47.93%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

CONVENCONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-4.349	-4.259	-4.129	7.625	-4.559	-4.469	-4.339
7.500	-3.910	-3.820	-3.690	7.500	-4.001	-3.911	-3.781
7.375	-3.385	-3.295	-3.165	7.375	-3.495	-3.405	-3.275
7.250	-2.829	-2.739	-2.609	7.250	-2.972	-2.882	-2.752
7.125	-2.379	-2.289	-2.159	7.125	-2.432	-2.342	-2.212
6.999	-2.103	-2.013	-1.883	6.999	-2.099	-2.009	-1.879
6.875	-1.541	-1.451	-1.321	6.875	-1.597	-1.507	-1.377
6.750	-0.913	-0.823	-0.693	6.750	-1.032	-0.942	-0.812
6.625	-1.002	-0.912	-0.782	6.625	-0.963	-0.873	-0.743
6.500	-0.670	-0.580	-0.450	6.500	-0.636	-0.546	-0.416
6.375	-0.020	0.070	0.200	6.375	-0.111	-0.021	0.109
6.250	0.679	0.769	0.899	6.250	0.477	0.567	0.697
6.125	0.770	0.860	0.990	6.125	0.725	0.815	0.945
5.999	1.229	1.319	1.449	5.999	1.139	1.229	1.359
5.875	1.995	2.085	2.215	5.875	1.701	1.791	1.921
5.750	2.818	2.908	3.038	5.750	2.331	2.421	2.551
5.625	3.031	3.121	3.251	5.625	2.889	2.979	3.109
5.500	3.552	3.642	3.772	5.500	3.384	3.474	3.604
5.375	4.418	4.508	4.638	5.375	3.982	4.072	4.202

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.264	-3.174	-3.044	6.750	-2.557	-2.467	-2.337
6.875	-3.023	-2.933	-2.803	6.625	-2.288	-2.198	-2.068
6.750	-2.527	-2.437	-2.307	6.500	-2.139	-2.049	-1.919
6.625	-2.291	-2.201	-2.071	6.375	-1.935	-1.845	-1.715
6.500	-2.087	-1.997	-1.867	6.250	-1.431	-1.341	-1.211
6.375	-1.826	-1.736	-1.606	6.125	-1.209	-1.119	-0.989
6.250	-1.321	-1.231	-1.101	6.000	-1.034	-0.944	-0.814
6.125	-0.986	-0.896	-0.766	5.875	-0.795	-0.705	-0.575
6.000	-0.748	-0.658	-0.528	5.750	-0.261	-0.171	-0.041
5.875	-0.447	-0.357	-0.227	5.625	0.065	0.155	0.285
5.750	0.088	0.178	0.308	5.500	0.288	0.378	0.508
5.625	0.508	0.598	0.728	5.375	0.567	0.657	0.787
5.500	0.802	0.892	1.022	5.250	1.128	1.218	1.348
5.375	1.155	1.245	1.375	5.125	1.653	1.743	1.873
5.250	1.715	1.805	1.935	5.000	2.011	2.101	2.231
5.125	2.246	2.336	2.466	4.875	2.304	2.394	2.524
5.000	2.622	2.712	2.842	4.750	2.885	2.975	3.105
4.875	2.997	3.087	3.217	4.625	3.062	3.152	3.282
4.750	3.579	3.669	3.799	4.500	3.393	3.483	3.613

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% +0.10% 5.99% 7.08% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.09% +0.05% 5.55% 6.39% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.68% +0.03% 6.1% 7.15%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 15, 2026

Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs Fri, May 15, 2026 12:40PM Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that mortgage rates aren’t higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% +0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.09% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.15% +0.16 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.68% +0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.47% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.17% +0.16 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/15   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/14   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.08 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 5.83% +0.06 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% +0.02 0.47 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/6

UMBS 30YR 5.0 97.50 -0.63 95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.76 -0.45 98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.581 +0.096 3.948 4.590

Highest Yields in a Year After Trump/Xi Summit Fri, May 15, 2026 9:19AM Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both parties want it to end, but China does not … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 95.01 -0.66 UMBS 5.0 97.50 -0.63 UMBS 5.5 99.76 -0.45 GNMA 4.5 95.65 -0.43 GNMA 5.0 98.34 -0.49 GNMA 5.5 100.23 -0.33 Pricing as of: 5/15 1:16PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.077 +0.056 5 YR Treasury 4.250 +0.098 7 YR Treasury 4.413 +0.101 10 YR Treasury 4.581 +0.096 30 YR Treasury 5.114 +0.083 Pricing as of: 5/15 1:16PM EST