Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 June Coupon is down -27 BPS at 2:55 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday!! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
May Non Farm Payroll (NFP) was 172K versus estimates of only 85K.
April NFP revised higher from 115K to 179K.
March NFP revised higher from 185K to 214K.
The rolling three month average shot up to 188K which is substantial.
Wages:
The Average Hourly Earnings rate increased by 12 cents to $37.53.
MOM, it increased by 0.3% which matched expectations.
YOY, it increased by 3.4% which matched expectations but is lower than April’s pace of 3.6%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% which was expected.
The U6 Underemployment Rate moved from 8.0% to +8.1%.
Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 61.8%.
May, April and March employment reported this morning, much higher than all the estimates. Non-farm jobs expected +85K increased 172K, April jobs revised from 115K to 214K. Private jobs estimates +90K reported at +120K, April private jobs revised from 123K to 177K, March jobs were also revised higher (+39K) the revisions take job revisions 93K higher than originally released adding to the May increase. Interest rates the highest in two weeks.
The stock indexes caved today, the NASDAQ had the biggest one-day decline in its history, the DJIA and S&P also crumbled.
Was the market really expecting the Fed to lower rates by year’s end? Market reactions suggest yes. With the data this morning the momentary thoughts are the Fed will increase the FF rate. That said, next week is another week, and we get CPI and PPI inflation data.
Next Week: most likely we will get updated news from Trump on the Iran situation. Economic releases: Tuesday May existing home sales, May NFIB small business optimism index, April US trade balance. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, May CPI, May Treasury budget. Thursday May PPI, weekly jobless claims. Friday U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.
This Week: 10 year note yield increased 10 bps; the 2 year note +15 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week -48 bps, the 6.0 coupon -25 bps. The DJIA -167, NASDAQ -4,264, S&P -176. Gold -$237.00 this week, crude oil +$2.50. The dollar continued to increase, the index up 1.21, Bitcoin took another hit this week declining 13,822 to 59,771, the high for the coin 125,000.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.55% +7 bp
5 year note: 4.29% +10 bp
2 year note: 4.17% +12 bp
30 year bond: 5.01% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.89 -13 bp (+2 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.94 -41 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.61 -16 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 160.19 +0.16 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1522 -$0.0091
Dollar Index: 100.08 +0.67
Gold: $4,347 -$158
Bitcoin: 59,771 -3798
Crude Oil: $90.37 -$2.67
DJIA: 50,866.78 -695.15
NASDAQ: 25,709.43 -1121.53
S&P 500: 7383.74 -200.57
SOFR Data 06/05: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.58967, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63865, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.68806, INDEX: 1.24596107
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,607.79 | 71.75 | 1.95% | 2.22 | 31.95% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
134,708.94 | 2,015.61 | 1.47% | 3.58 | 34.40% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,580.16 | 79.19 | 1.70% | 2.40 | 29.25% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1522 | 0.01 | 0.77% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
160.2900 | 0.27 | 0.17% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3342 | 0.01 | 0.61% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7048 | 0.01 | 1.21% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3937 | 0.00 | 0.21% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7961 | 0.01 | 0.82% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.0027 | 0.16 | 0.78% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.1464 | 0.20 | 0.77% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6806 | 0.03 | 0.87% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
308.4500 | 3.38 | 1.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
73.5944 | 0.19 | 0.25% | 3:15 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.4748 | 0.19 | 1.10% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -4.096 | -4.006 | -3.876 | 7.625 | -4.182 | -4.092 | -3.962 |
| 7.500 | -3.583 | -3.493 | -3.363 | 7.500 | -3.597 | -3.507 | -3.377 |
| 7.375 | -3.051 | -2.961 | -2.831 | 7.375 | -2.999 | -2.909 | -2.779 |
| 7.250 | -2.502 | -2.412 | -2.282 | 7.250 | -2.446 | -2.356 | -2.226 |
| 7.125 | -2.366 | -2.276 | -2.146 | 7.125 | -2.446 | -2.356 | -2.226 |
| 6.999 | -2.050 | -1.960 | -1.830 | 6.999 | -2.097 | -2.007 | -1.877 |
| 6.875 | -1.522 | -1.432 | -1.302 | 6.875 | -1.595 | -1.505 | -1.375 |
| 6.750 | -0.912 | -0.822 | -0.692 | 6.750 | -1.033 | -0.943 | -0.813 |
| 6.625 | -1.135 | -1.045 | -0.915 | 6.625 | -1.125 | -1.035 | -0.905 |
| 6.500 | -0.743 | -0.653 | -0.523 | 6.500 | -0.732 | -0.642 | -0.512 |
| 6.375 | -0.104 | -0.014 | 0.116 | 6.375 | -0.206 | -0.116 | 0.014 |
| 6.250 | 0.591 | 0.681 | 0.811 | 6.250 | 0.382 | 0.472 | 0.602 |
| 6.125 | 0.523 | 0.613 | 0.743 | 6.125 | 0.509 | 0.599 | 0.729 |
| 5.999 | 1.009 | 1.099 | 1.229 | 5.999 | 0.962 | 1.052 | 1.182 |
| 5.875 | 1.786 | 1.876 | 2.006 | 5.875 | 1.530 | 1.620 | 1.750 |
| 5.750 | 2.592 | 2.682 | 2.812 | 5.750 | 2.152 | 2.242 | 2.372 |
| 5.625 | 2.699 | 2.789 | 2.919 | 5.625 | 2.659 | 2.749 | 2.879 |
| 5.500 | 3.262 | 3.352 | 3.482 | 5.500 | 3.189 | 3.279 | 3.409 |
| 5.375 | 4.100 | 4.190 | 4.320 | 5.375 | 3.801 | 3.891 | 4.021 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.125 | -3.281 | -3.191 | -3.061 | 7.000 | -3.054 | -2.964 | -2.834 |
| 7.000 | -3.086 | -2.996 | -2.866 | 6.875 | -2.858 | -2.768 | -2.638 |
| 6.875 | -2.837 | -2.747 | -2.617 | 6.750 | -2.363 | -2.273 | -2.143 |
| 6.750 | -2.343 | -2.253 | -2.123 | 6.625 | -2.172 | -2.082 | -1.952 |
| 6.625 | -2.209 | -2.119 | -1.989 | 6.500 | -1.996 | -1.906 | -1.776 |
| 6.500 | -1.969 | -1.879 | -1.749 | 6.375 | -1.777 | -1.687 | -1.557 |
| 6.375 | -1.687 | -1.597 | -1.467 | 6.250 | -1.268 | -1.178 | -1.048 |
| 6.250 | -1.177 | -1.087 | -0.957 | 6.125 | -1.244 | -1.154 | -1.024 |
| 6.125 | -1.085 | -0.995 | -0.865 | 6.000 | -1.049 | -0.959 | -0.829 |
| 6.000 | -0.818 | -0.728 | -0.598 | 5.875 | -0.794 | -0.704 | -0.574 |
| 5.875 | -0.492 | -0.402 | -0.272 | 5.750 | -0.265 | -0.175 | -0.045 |
| 5.750 | 0.037 | 0.127 | 0.257 | 5.625 | 0.081 | 0.171 | 0.301 |
| 5.625 | 0.435 | 0.525 | 0.655 | 5.500 | 0.317 | 0.407 | 0.537 |
| 5.500 | 0.749 | 0.839 | 0.969 | 5.375 | 0.604 | 0.694 | 0.824 |
| 5.375 | 1.117 | 1.207 | 1.337 | 5.250 | 1.166 | 1.256 | 1.386 |
| 5.250 | 1.679 | 1.769 | 1.899 | 5.125 | 1.708 | 1.798 | 1.928 |
| 5.125 | 2.138 | 2.228 | 2.358 | 5.000 | 1.987 | 2.077 | 2.207 |
| 5.000 | 2.506 | 2.596 | 2.726 | 4.875 | 2.293 | 2.383 | 2.513 |
| 4.875 | 2.899 | 2.989 | 3.119 | 4.750 | 2.867 | 2.957 | 3.087 |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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