Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 July Coupon is up +4 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.
The preliminary June UofM Consumer Sentiment Index moved off of its 40 year low of 44.8 to 48.9 which is still a very weak reading. 1 Year Inflation Expectations dropped from 4.8% down to 4.6%.
US interest rates quiet but slightly higher today after rates fell yesterday on increased optimism a deal with Iran may be eminent. Today crude continued to decline, gold continued to increase and stock indexes added to yesterday’s gains.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been helping negotiate a deal, earlier Friday said a “final, agreed upon text” of a deal between the U.S. and Iran “has been reached.” Meantime after President Trump was all in yesterday saying a deal is very likely, now as he does so often the administration saying the US isn’t “100%” confident the agreement will be consummated, a senior Trump administration official said, “I maybe would have said 75% this morning. It’s probably more like 80-85% now,” said the official. “But it’s not 100%.” Based on 47 years of history delaying any deals between the USA an Iran cannot be assured until its done. The only market that didn’t experience continued optimism based on today’s prices is the US treasury market.
SpaceX went public today, the initial stock opened +$150.00, higher than the pre-opening $135.00 price, and continued to increase through the day, closing at 161.11.
Next Week: the prime focus will be on Iran. Data next week: Monday June Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production and capacity utilization, June NAHB housing market index. Tuesday May housing starts and permits, May import and export prices, FOMC meeting begins. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, May retail sales, May pending home sales, FOMC policy statement and the first press conference for new Fed chief Kevin Warsh. Thursday weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business index. Friday all markets closed for Juneteenth Day.
This Week: The 10 year note -6 bps, 2 year note -8 bp, FNNA 5.5 coupon +23 bps. DJIA +335, NASDAQ +180, S&P +47. Gold -$120.00, crude oil -$5.88. Dollar index -0.32, bitcoin +4,923.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.49% +2 bp
5 year note: 4.22% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.09% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.98% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.02 -7 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.17 -12 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.78 -9 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 160.23 +0.27 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1572 -$0.0008
Dollar Index: 99.76 -0.09
Gold: $4,227.00 +$113.00
Bitcoin: 63,694 +140
Crude Oil: $84.49 -$3.22
DJIA: 51,202.26 +353.51
NASDAQ: 25,888.84 +79.18
S&P 500: 7431.46 +37.16
SOFR Data 06/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.59301, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63618, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.68014, INDEX: 1.24683727
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,713.88 | 61.86 | 1.69% | 5.54 | 34.77% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
138,732.25 | 3,133.70 | 2.31% | 6.60 | 37.50% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,700.25 | 79.59 | 1.72% | 5.41 | 31.71% | 11:15 A |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1567 | 0.00 | 0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
160.2200 | 0.29 | 0.18% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3407 | 0.00 | 0.07% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7046 | 0.00 | 0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3989 | 0.00 | 0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7971 | 0.00 | 0.28% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.2280 | 0.02 | 0.12% | 4:56 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.8705 | 0.00 | 0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.0422 | 0.02 | 0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6697 | 0.00 | 0.01% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
304.2000 | 0.97 | 0.32% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
72.3770 | 0.40 | 0.56% | 4:00 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.878 | -3.788 | -3.658 | 7.625 | -3.968 | -3.878 | -3.748 |
| 7.500 | -3.488 | -3.398 | -3.268 | 7.500 | -3.376 | -3.286 | -3.156 |
| 7.375 | -2.973 | -2.883 | -2.753 | 7.375 | -2.911 | -2.821 | -2.691 |
| 7.250 | -2.423 | -2.333 | -2.203 | 7.250 | -2.366 | -2.276 | -2.146 |
| 7.125 | -2.497 | -2.407 | -2.277 | 7.125 | -2.571 | -2.481 | -2.351 |
| 6.999 | -2.183 | -2.093 | -1.963 | 6.999 | -2.228 | -2.138 | -2.008 |
| 6.875 | -1.652 | -1.562 | -1.432 | 6.875 | -1.719 | -1.629 | -1.499 |
| 6.750 | -1.039 | -0.949 | -0.819 | 6.750 | -1.156 | -1.066 | -0.936 |
| 6.625 | -1.289 | -1.199 | -1.069 | 6.625 | -1.273 | -1.183 | -1.053 |
| 6.500 | -0.898 | -0.808 | -0.678 | 6.500 | -0.880 | -0.790 | -0.660 |
| 6.375 | -0.258 | -0.168 | -0.038 | 6.375 | -0.354 | -0.264 | -0.134 |
| 6.250 | 0.437 | 0.527 | 0.657 | 6.250 | 0.233 | 0.323 | 0.453 |
| 6.125 | 0.349 | 0.439 | 0.569 | 6.125 | 0.339 | 0.429 | 0.559 |
| 5.999 | 0.836 | 0.926 | 1.056 | 5.999 | 0.792 | 0.882 | 1.012 |
| 5.875 | 1.612 | 1.702 | 1.832 | 5.875 | 1.360 | 1.450 | 1.580 |
| 5.750 | 2.421 | 2.511 | 2.641 | 5.750 | 1.982 | 2.072 | 2.202 |
| 5.625 | 2.484 | 2.574 | 2.704 | 5.625 | 2.447 | 2.537 | 2.667 |
| 5.500 | 3.046 | 3.136 | 3.266 | 5.500 | 2.977 | 3.067 | 3.197 |
| 5.375 | 3.887 | 3.977 | 4.107 | 5.375 | 3.589 | 3.679 | 3.809 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.125 | -3.302 | -3.212 | -3.082 | 7.125 | -3.222 | -3.132 | -3.002 |
| 7.000 | -3.112 | -3.022 | -2.892 | 7.000 | -3.079 | -2.989 | -2.859 |
| 6.875 | -2.857 | -2.767 | -2.637 | 6.875 | -2.877 | -2.787 | -2.657 |
| 6.750 | -2.360 | -2.270 | -2.140 | 6.750 | -2.380 | -2.290 | -2.160 |
| 6.625 | -2.159 | -2.069 | -1.939 | 6.625 | -2.122 | -2.032 | -1.902 |
| 6.500 | -1.919 | -1.829 | -1.699 | 6.500 | -1.946 | -1.856 | -1.726 |
| 6.375 | -1.636 | -1.546 | -1.416 | 6.375 | -1.727 | -1.637 | -1.507 |
| 6.250 | -1.128 | -1.038 | -0.908 | 6.250 | -1.219 | -1.129 | -0.999 |
| 6.125 | -1.142 | -1.052 | -0.922 | 6.125 | -1.301 | -1.211 | -1.081 |
| 6.000 | -0.875 | -0.785 | -0.655 | 6.000 | -1.106 | -1.016 | -0.886 |
| 5.875 | -0.549 | -0.459 | -0.329 | 5.875 | -0.851 | -0.761 | -0.631 |
| 5.750 | -0.020 | 0.070 | 0.200 | 5.750 | -0.322 | -0.232 | -0.102 |
| 5.625 | 0.305 | 0.395 | 0.525 | 5.625 | -0.049 | 0.041 | 0.171 |
| 5.500 | 0.619 | 0.709 | 0.839 | 5.500 | 0.187 | 0.277 | 0.407 |
| 5.375 | 0.987 | 1.077 | 1.207 | 5.375 | 0.474 | 0.564 | 0.694 |
| 5.250 | 1.549 | 1.639 | 1.769 | 5.250 | 1.036 | 1.126 | 1.256 |
| 5.125 | 1.965 | 2.055 | 2.185 | 5.125 | 1.582 | 1.672 | 1.802 |
| 5.000 | 2.334 | 2.424 | 2.554 | 5.000 | 1.862 | 1.952 | 2.082 |
| 4.875 | 2.727 | 2.817 | 2.947 | 4.875 | 2.167 | 2.257 | 2.387 |
| Company (Ticker) | Price target | Upside to price target | Consensus rating score | Consensus rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charter Communications (CHTR) | $243.69 | 80% | 2.90 | Hold |
| Intuit (INTU) | $491.30 | 67% | 1.59 | Buy |
| Trimble (TRMB) | $85.33 | 61% | 1.31 | Strong Buy |
| Boston Scientific (BSX) | $78.17 | 60% | 1.48 | Strong Buy |
| DoorDash (DASH) | $245.99 | 58% | 1.61 | Buy |
| Vistra (VST) | $225.29 | 54% | 1.37 | Strong Buy |
| Tractor Supply (TSCO) | $46.04 | 54% | 2.00 | Buy |
| NRG Energy (NRG) | $199.47 | 53% | 1.59 | Buy |
| Insulet (PODD) | $243.78 | 53% | 1.42 | Strong Buy |
| Zoetis (ZTS) | $124.59 | 52% | 2.05 | Buy |
| Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) | $189.21 | 49% | 1.63 | Buy |
| Uber Technologies (UBER) | $104.43 | 48% | 1.45 | Strong Buy |
| Leidos Holdings (LDOS) | $183.27 | 48% | 2.24 | Buy |
| Global Payments (GPN) | $94.62 | 48% | 2.36 | Buy |
| Veeva Systems (VEEV) | $248.29 | 48% | 1.90 | Buy |
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | $229.74 | 48% | 2.00 | Buy |
| Universal Health Services (UHS) | $215.76 | 47% | 2.35 | Buy |
| Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) | $58.76 | 47% | 1.96 | Buy |
| Expand Energy (EXE) | $130.04 | 46% | 1.58 | Buy |
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | $368.43 | 46% | 1.48 | Strong Buy |
| Axon Enterprise (AXON) | $662.04 | 46% | 1.60 | Buy |
| Salesforce (CRM) | $254.99 | 45% | 1.65 | Buy |
| T-Mobile US (TMUS) | $260.81 | 45% | 1.61 | Buy |
| Newmont (NEM) | $141.93 | 45% | 1.64 | Buy |
| CoStar Group (CSGP) | $48.85 | 45% | 1.76 | Buy |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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