Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 July Coupon is up +10 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobs were 226K versus estimates of 225K. The four week moving average ticked upward to 223K. Continuing Claims rose back above 1.8M with a reading above 1.810M.

Rosie the Riveter: June Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey rose from -0.4 to 10.3.

Central Bank Palooza: Both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England kept their interest rates unchanged.

***Bond market is CLOSED for Federal holiday***

The long end of the yield curve, 10s and 30s, recovered sum of the increases from yesterday, however the 2 year note after increasing 25 bps yesterday improved just 4 bps. Markets were surprised yesterday when new Fed chair Warsh commented that he would tackle inflation and reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% inflation. For months Pres Trump has been pushing or the Fed to cut rates, he appointed Warsh, markets thought Warsh would acquiesce to Trump and lean for rate cuts. He didn’t and that shook up markets that were betting the Fed would tilt to more lenient Fed policy, even increasing the Fed’s target rate for inflation from 2.0%. Mortgage prices lost 47 bp yesterday, improving 28 bps today.

We continue to expect long term interest rates will decline from here, the path may be bumpy. It’s based on the belief inflation will slow as energy prices decline and impact goods and services as it does, edging inflation lower. Warsh’s hawkish stand yesterday may be more bark than bite.

The negotiations with Iran have begun. The next 60 days will be marked with more obfuscation from Iran. Two months of more uncertainty, Trump will promise more bombing, unlikely he will do it.

Markets closed tomorrow. NEXT WEEK: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday 2 year note auction, Prelim. June ISM manufacturing index. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, May new home sales, 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May PCE inflation, May personal income and spending, Q1 final GDP, May durable goods orders, 7 year note auction. Friday final University of Michigan June consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note this week -2 b, the 2 year note +10 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon +7 bps. The DJIA+363, NASDAQ +629, S&P +70. Gold price unchanged this week, crude oil -$7.89. The dollar index increased 1.12, bitcoin -875.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.46% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.24% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.19% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.90% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.20 +19 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.95 +9 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.42 +16 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 161.37 +0.72 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1459 -$0.0043

Dollar Index: 100.88 +0.79

Gold: $4,227.30 -$154.40 (strong dollar)

Bitcoin: 62,799 -1449

Crude Oil: $76.60 -$0.19

DJIA: 51,564.70 +72.15

NASDAQ: 26,517.93 +496.28

S&P 500: 7500.67 +80.67

SOFR Data 06/18: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.61206, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63629, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.67889, INDEX: 1.24759592

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,671.03	59.63	1.60%	3.34	34.81%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	138,526.60	1,813.10	1.29%	5.16	38.61%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,669.54	68.41	1.44%	3.56	32.12%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1460	0.00	0.02%	7:35 PM
USD-JPY	161.3500	0.03	0.02%	7:35 PM
GBP-USD	1.3203	0.00	0.02%	7:35 PM
AUD-USD	0.7014	0.00	0.01%	7:35 PM
USD-CAD	1.4137	0.00	0.01%	7:36 PM
USD-CHF	0.8047	0.00	0.00%	7:35 PM

USD-MXN

17.3554

0.01

0.06%

7:37 P

USD-CZK	21.1254	0.01	0.04%	7:38 PM
USD-SKK	26.2865	0.01	0.02%	7:38 PM
USD-PLN	3.7156	0.00	0.05%	7:38 PM
USD-HUF	307.5800	0.11	0.04%	7:38 PM
USD-RUB	73.3250	0.00	0.00%	7:30 PM

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.58% -0.04%

5.99%

6.87%

15 Yr. Fixed

6.15% -0.01%

5.55%

6.25%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.81% +0.01%

6.1%

6.95%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jun 18, 2026

Mortgage Rates Stage Decent Recovery of Post-Fed Losses

Thu, Jun 18, 2026 12:46PM

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed’s revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage may be ABLE to last for 30 years, in practice, the average mortgage length (due to refinances and sales) is a moving target assumed to be around 5 years. That’s helping us today. Shorter-term debt is still having some indigestion over… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.58%	-0.04	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.15%	-0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.15%	0.00	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.81%	+0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.30%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.17%	0.00	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 6/18

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.47%	-0.05	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.81%	-0.03	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/18

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.60%	0.00	0.63
15 Yr. Fixed	6.02%	+0.03	0.65
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.62%	-0.04	0.57
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/17

UMBS 30YR 5.0

98.22 +0.22

96.76

100.50

UMBS 30YR 5.5

100.27 +0.18

98.96

101.64

10 YR Treasury

4.445 -0.051

3.948

4.668

Deal Signed. Warsh Digested. Bonds Stabilizing

Thu, Jun 18, 2026 10:04AM

Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely while 2yr barely rallied). The net effect … (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	95.96	+0.34
UMBS 5.0	98.22	+0.22
UMBS 5.5	100.27	+0.18
GNMA 4.5	95.95	+0.01
GNMA 5.0	98.66	+0.37
GNMA 5.5	100.41	+0.26
Pricing as of: 6/18 1:16PM EST

US Treasury	Yield	Change
2 YR Treasury	4.170	-0.015
5 YR Treasury	4.219	-0.048
7 YR Treasury	4.323	-0.048
10 YR Treasury	4.445	-0.051
30 YR Treasury	4.892	-0.039
Pricing as of: 6/18 1:16PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.942	-3.852	-3.722	7.625	-4.037	-3.947	-3.817
7.500	-3.597	-3.507	-3.377	7.500	-3.497	-3.407	-3.277
7.375	-3.081	-2.991	-2.861	7.375	-3.027	-2.937	-2.807
7.250	-2.531	-2.441	-2.311	7.250	-2.479	-2.389	-2.259
7.125	-2.554	-2.464	-2.334	7.125	-2.567	-2.477	-2.347
6.999	-2.239	-2.149	-2.019	6.999	-2.225	-2.135	-2.005
6.875	-1.709	-1.619	-1.489	6.875	-1.718	-1.628	-1.498
6.750	-1.097	-1.007	-0.877	6.750	-1.148	-1.058	-0.928
6.625	-1.438	-1.348	-1.218	6.625	-1.422	-1.332	-1.202
6.500	-1.046	-0.956	-0.826	6.500	-1.031	-0.941	-0.811
6.375	-0.405	-0.315	-0.185	6.375	-0.503	-0.413	-0.283
6.250	0.291	0.381	0.511	6.250	0.086	0.176	0.306
6.125	0.039	0.129	0.259	6.125	0.012	0.102	0.232
5.999	0.525	0.615	0.745	5.999	0.464	0.554	0.684
5.875	1.303	1.393	1.523	5.875	1.036	1.126	1.256
5.750	2.111	2.201	2.331	5.750	1.665	1.755	1.885
5.625	2.082	2.172	2.302	5.625	2.034	2.124	2.254
5.500	2.645	2.735	2.865	5.500	2.562	2.652	2.782
5.375	3.484	3.574	3.704	5.375	3.171	3.261	3.391

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.293	-3.203	-3.073	7.000	-3.068	-2.978	-2.848
7.000	-3.101	-3.011	-2.881	6.875	-2.867	-2.777	-2.647
6.875	-2.846	-2.756	-2.626	6.750	-2.366	-2.276	-2.146
6.750	-2.346	-2.256	-2.126	6.625	-2.114	-2.024	-1.894
6.625	-2.151	-2.061	-1.931	6.500	-1.940	-1.850	-1.720
6.500	-1.913	-1.823	-1.693	6.375	-1.722	-1.632	-1.502
6.375	-1.631	-1.541	-1.411	6.250	-1.215	-1.125	-0.995
6.250	-1.124	-1.034	-0.904	6.125	-1.187	-1.097	-0.967
6.125	-1.074	-0.984	-0.854	6.000	-0.991	-0.901	-0.771
6.000	-0.807	-0.717	-0.587	5.875	-0.737	-0.647	-0.517
5.875	-0.482	-0.392	-0.262	5.750	-0.202	-0.112	0.018
5.750	0.052	0.142	0.272	5.625	-0.137	-0.047	0.083
5.625	0.216	0.306	0.436	5.500	0.099	0.189	0.319
5.500	0.531	0.621	0.751	5.375	0.388	0.478	0.608
5.375	0.901	0.991	1.121	5.250	0.952	1.042	1.172
5.250	1.464	1.554	1.684	5.125	1.430	1.520	1.650
5.125	1.813	1.903	2.033	5.000	1.714	1.804	1.934
5.000	2.186	2.276	2.406	4.875	2.016	2.106	2.236

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	1.12%	1.88%	5.62%	22.62%	47.76%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL