MARKET WRAP-UP

Intra-Day Lock Status: ***The Bond Market will close EARLY at 2PM and will remain closed until Monday***America 250 Baby!!!! In today’s video, Bryan discusses his take on this morning’s BLS data, there will be no EOD commentary today.

MBS OVERVIEW

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Thursday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

June NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 57K versus estimates of 110K.

May NFP revised lower from 172K to 129K.

April NFP revised lower from 179K to 148K.

The rolling three month average has moved much lower and is now 111K.

Wages:

The national Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 13 cents to $37.64.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM up 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY up 3.5% versus estimates of 3.5%.

Employment:

The headline Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.9%.

Labor Force Participation dropped from 6.8% down to 6.5%.

Rosie the Riveter: We will get May Factory Orders at 10 am.

Questions about my commentary? No problem, email me at [email protected] and I will do my best to answer your questions.

June BLS employment report this morning was well off the mark in terms of forecasts. NFP jobs +57K with estimates at 114K, private jobs +49K with estimates at 123K. May NFP jobs revised from 172K to 129K, May private jobs revised from 120K to 97K. The unemployment rate expected at 4.3% where it has been for months declined to 4.2%. The immediate reaction pushed the 2 year note down 5 bps, the 5 year -2 bps, the 10 unchanged from yesterday.

Markets were pricing a Fed rate increase later this year, now at least for the moment, the report was soft on the headlines and somewhat shaking the rate hike forecasts. Kevin Warsh has been clear, his focus is on inflation and less the employment, at 3.4% core inflation based on recent PCE data Warsh is insistent the Fed’s target is still 2.00%.

The weak employment dents the view the Fed will increase rates for the moment after the last two days the outlook for an increase had increased based on markets’ reactions. If the Fed is determined to increase the FF rate, when will it do it? Interesting question, the next FOMC meeting is July 28th, is that when the Fed would act? If the Fed waits until Sept 15th or October 27th it would happen in front of the mid-term elections. The Fed cut rates just in front of the presidential election in 2024 setting off huge reactions from President Trump.

Weekly jobless claims this morning expected at 220K reported at 215K from 216K the previous week, the lowest in five weeks. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment, rose by 2,000 to 1,814,000 in the third week of June, the highest in three months.

No news from the US/Iran talks; Iran doing what it has always done with success, delaying and debating, not agreeing much with the MofU signed last two weeks ago. Trump in a box, always threatening but unable to follow through with his strong comments of increased military actions, preferring the diplomatic approach that hasn’t worked out in past ‘deals’ with Iran.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +289 NASDAQ +31, S&P +21. 10 year note 4.48% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 2:00 PM

10 year note: 4.48% unch

5 year note: 4.23% -2 bp

2 year note: 4.14% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.98% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.22 +4 bp (+5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.07 -2 bp (+5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.42 +3 bp (+9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 160.94 -167 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1448 +$0.0070

Dollar Index: 100.73 -0.66

Gold: $4,135.50 +$53.10

Bitcoin: 61,480.91+711.87

Crude Oil: $68.46 -$0.12

DJIA: 52,900.27 +594.83

NASDAQ: 25832.57 -207.36

S&P 500: 7483.27+0.01

SOFR Data 07/02: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63379, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63494, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.67074, INDEX: 1.24935711

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,668.34	56.64	1.57%	0.00	29.18%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	138,667.80	1,989.60	1.46%	1.66	32.58%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,660.68	69.12	1.51%	0.25	26.29%	11:15 AM

Waluty

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1435	0.00	0.03%	5:11 PM
USD-JPY	161.1000	0.01	0.01%	5:11 PM
GBP-USD	1.3348	0.00	0.02%	5:11 PM
AUD-USD	0.6916	0.00	0.09%	5:11 PM
USD-CAD	1.4184	0.00	0.01%	5:12 PM
USD-CHF	0.8034	0.00	0.02%	5:11

USD-CZK	21.1671	0.00	0.01%	5:17 PM
USD-SKK	26.3526	0.00	0.00%	5:17 PM
USD-PLN	3.7515	0.00	0.02%	5:17 PM
USD-HUF	310.0000	0.02	0.01%	5:17 PM
USD-RUB	77.6297	0.12	0.15%	5:01 PM

USD-MXN

17.4818

0.02

0.11%

5:14 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.961	-3.871	-3.741	7.625	-3.833	-3.743	-3.613
7.500	-3.617	-3.527	-3.397	7.500	-3.492	-3.402	-3.272
7.375	-3.094	-3.004	-2.874	7.375	-3.026	-2.936	-2.806
7.250	-2.537	-2.447	-2.317	7.250	-2.476	-2.386	-2.256
7.125	-2.596	-2.506	-2.376	7.125	-2.572	-2.482	-2.352
6.999	-2.249	-2.159	-2.029	6.999	-2.164	-2.074	-1.944
6.875	-1.700	-1.610	-1.480	6.875	-1.684	-1.594	-1.464
6.750	-1.076	-0.986	-0.856	6.750	-1.114	-1.024	-0.894
6.625	-1.425	-1.335	-1.205	6.625	-1.346	-1.256	-1.126
6.500	-1.009	-0.919	-0.789	6.500	-1.019	-0.929	-0.799
6.375	-0.360	-0.270	-0.140	6.375	-0.432	-0.342	-0.212
6.250	0.330	0.420	0.550	6.250	0.160	0.250	0.380
6.125	0.155	0.245	0.375	6.125	0.208	0.298	0.428
5.999	0.698	0.788	0.918	5.999	0.649	0.739	0.869
5.875	1.470	1.560	1.690	5.875	1.218	1.308	1.438
5.750	2.291	2.381	2.511	5.750	1.853	1.943	2.073
5.625	2.278	2.368	2.498	5.625	2.309	2.399	2.529
5.500	2.878	2.968	3.098	5.500	2.760	2.850	2.980
5.375	3.739	3.829	3.959	5.375	3.422	3.512	3.642

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.032	-2.942	-2.812	6.875	-2.791	-2.701	-2.571
6.875	-2.771	-2.681	-2.551	6.750	-2.291	-2.201	-2.071
6.750	-2.271	-2.181	-2.051	6.625	-2.193	-2.103	-1.973
6.625	-2.212	-2.122	-1.992	6.500	-2.006	-1.916	-1.786
6.500	-1.973	-1.883	-1.753	6.375	-1.772	-1.682	-1.552
6.375	-1.682	-1.592	-1.462	6.250	-1.254	-1.164	-1.034
6.250	-1.164	-1.074	-0.944	6.125	-1.327	-1.237	-1.107
6.125	-1.207	-1.117	-0.987	6.000	-1.101	-1.011	-0.881
6.000	-0.916	-0.826	-0.696	5.875	-0.847	-0.757	-0.627
5.875	-0.592	-0.502	-0.372	5.750	-0.308	-0.218	-0.088
5.750	-0.053	0.037	0.167	5.625	-0.186	-0.096	0.034
5.625	0.167	0.257	0.387	5.500	0.033	0.123	0.253
5.500	0.465	0.555	0.685	5.375	0.334	0.424	0.554
5.375	0.847	0.937	1.067	5.250	0.899	0.989	1.119
5.250	1.411	1.501	1.631	5.125	1.436	1.526	1.656
5.125	1.822	1.912	2.042	5.000	1.707	1.797	1.927
5.000	2.180	2.270	2.400	4.875	2.013	2.103	2.233
4.875	2.572	2.662	2.792	4.750	2.599	2.689	2.819
4.750	3.158	3.248	3.378	4.625	3.119	3.209	3.339

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	1.12%	1.88%	5.62%	22.62%	47.76%	Trac

OBLIGACJE, OPROCENTOWANIA

30 Yr. Fixed

6.60% -0.05%

5.99%

6.85%

15 Yr. Fixed

6.17% -0.02%

5.55%

6.25%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.77% -0.03%

6.1%

6.93%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 2, 2026

Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat

Thu, Jul 2, 2026 1:05PM

Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially “The Employment Situation”) measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.60%	-0.05	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.17%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.17%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.77%	-0.03	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.33%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.19%	-0.05	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/2

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.43%	-0.06	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.79%	-0.05	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/2

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.57%	-0.02	0.65
15 Yr. Fixed	6.00%	-0.02	0.75
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.52%	0.00	0.38
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/1

UMBS 30YR 5.0

98.09 +0.05

96.76

100.50

UMBS 30YR 5.5

100.26 +0.06

98.96

101.64

10 YR Treasury

4.486 +0.005

3.948

4.668

Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data

Thu, Jul 2, 2026 9:05AM

Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today’s big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k vs 110k, with another -71k of revisions) and bonds rallied i… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	95.63	+0.00
UMBS 5.0	98.09	+0.05
UMBS 5.5	100.26	+0.06
GNMA 4.5	95.80	-0.03
GNMA 5.0	98.52	+0.14
GNMA 5.5	100.31	-0.03
Pricing as of: 7/2 5:02PM EST