Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 August Coupon is down -27 BPS at 2:56 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The 2nd QTR Employment Cost Index 0.9% versus estimates of 0.8%.

Rosie the Riveter: July Chicago PMI was better than expected, rising to 57.6 versus estimates of 56.0.

Glass Half Empty: The final/revised UofM Consumer Sentiment Index saw an improvement from 54.0 to 55.2, 1 year Inflation Expectations remained at 4.2%.

Texas Tea, Black Gold: Brent is up over a buck.

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept their interest rate at 1.00%.

The 10 year note yield hit its highest since October 2023, 30 year mortgage rates now over 7.0%. Inflation has moderated over the past month. The war with Iran is escalating quickly. Not pretty pictures. There is a mass exodus from treasuries over the last three days. After declining to $79.00 on Tuesday crude is on the increase, although its price is still lower than last Friday. Haven’t heard from the president much this week about Iran.

Today’s increase in rates likely due to the potential of the US increasing attacks on Iran; based on Admiral Cooper’s (Centcom commander) plan it may be a two week consistent barge to curtail Iran’s escalation into other mid-east countries over the last week. Trump has promised a massive increase in military force several times recently. This weekend may be the beginning, if not some minor gains in rates is possible.

Next week is employment week, Friday BLS July data. Q2 productivity and unit labor costs. June JOPLTS job openings.

This week: 10 year note rate increased 5 bp while the 2 year note declined 6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week lost 9 bps. DJIA +238, NASDAQ +398, S&P +78. Gold +$51.00 crude oil -$4.69. The dollar index declined 1.53, a sizeable decline. Bitcoin -1,300.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.73% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.44% +4 bp

2 year note: 4.28% +2 bp

30 year bond: 5.25% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.08 -27 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 98.92 -42 bp (-19 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.62 -24 bp (-17 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 159.08 -0.43 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1534 +$0.0004

Dollar Index: 99.95 +0.09

Gold: $4,107.00 -$53.70

Bitcoin: 62,898 -1847

Crude Oil: $84.79 +$1.20

DJIA: 52,285 +277

NASDAQ: 25,374 +252

S&P 500: 7490 +52

SOFR Data 07/31: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.61975, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.62541, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66334, INDEX: 1.25299836

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,920.26	12.98	0.33%	9.28	32.87%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	147,400.90	621.20	0.42%	8.67	36.63%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,989.01	22.14	0.45%	9.48	31.24%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1527	0.00	0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.4000	2.13	1.34%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3483	0.00	0.13%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.7019	0.00	0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4021	0.00	0.06%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8075	0.00	0.30%	4:59 PM

USD-CZK	21.0142	0.02	0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.1353	0.00	0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.7390	0.00	0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	316.6000	2.08	0.66%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	79.4003	0.18	0.22%	2:53 PM

USD-MXN

17.3426

0.00

0.00%

4:59 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.727	-3.637	-3.507	7.625	-3.551	-3.461	-3.331
7.500	-3.346	-3.256	-3.126	7.500	-3.187	-3.097	-2.967
7.375	-2.793	-2.703	-2.573	7.375	-2.696	-2.606	-2.476
7.250	-2.227	-2.137	-2.007	7.250	-2.132	-2.042	-1.912
7.125	-1.953	-1.863	-1.733	7.125	-1.771	-1.681	-1.551
6.999	-1.571	-1.481	-1.351	6.999	-1.295	-1.205	-1.075
6.875	-0.985	-0.895	-0.765	6.875	-0.820	-0.730	-0.600
6.750	-0.320	-0.230	-0.100	6.750	-0.245	-0.155	-0.025
6.625	-0.314	-0.224	-0.094	6.625	-0.166	-0.076	0.054
6.500	0.110	0.200	0.330	6.500	0.162	0.252	0.382
6.375	0.799	0.889	1.019	6.375	0.751	0.841	0.971
6.250	1.566	1.656	1.786	6.250	1.371	1.461	1.591
6.125	1.692	1.782	1.912	6.125	1.603	1.693	1.823
5.999	2.255	2.345	2.475	5.999	2.067	2.157	2.287
5.875	3.060	3.150	3.280	5.875	2.660	2.750	2.880
5.750	3.907	3.997	4.127	5.750	3.315	3.405	3.535
5.625	4.069	4.159	4.289	5.625	4.057	4.147	4.277
5.500	4.740	4.830	4.960	5.500	4.502	4.592	4.722
5.375	5.657	5.747	5.877	5.375	5.230	5.320	5.450

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.128	-3.038	-2.908	7.000	-2.933	-2.843	-2.713
7.000	-2.889	-2.799	-2.669	6.875	-2.641	-2.551	-2.421
6.875	-2.510	-2.420	-2.290	6.750	-2.320	-2.230	-2.100
6.750	-2.101	-2.011	-1.881	6.625	-1.809	-1.719	-1.589
6.625	-1.889	-1.799	-1.669	6.500	-1.633	-1.543	-1.413
6.500	-1.654	-1.564	-1.434	6.375	-1.400	-1.310	-1.180
6.375	-1.363	-1.273	-1.143	6.250	-0.879	-0.789	-0.659
6.250	-0.842	-0.752	-0.622	6.125	-0.766	-0.676	-0.546
6.125	-0.605	-0.515	-0.385	6.000	-0.533	-0.443	-0.313
6.000	-0.304	-0.214	-0.084	5.875	-0.272	-0.182	-0.052
5.875	0.028	0.118	0.248	5.750	0.281	0.371	0.501
5.750	0.581	0.671	0.801	5.625	0.663	0.753	0.883
5.625	1.106	1.196	1.326	5.500	0.903	0.993	1.123
5.500	1.423	1.513	1.643	5.375	1.204	1.294	1.424
5.375	1.804	1.894	2.024	5.250	1.774	1.864	1.994
5.250	2.374	2.464	2.594	5.125	2.364	2.454	2.584
5.125	2.904	2.994	3.124	5.000	2.717	2.807	2.937
5.000	3.254	3.344	3.474	4.875	3.030	3.120	3.250
4.875	3.655	3.745	3.875	4.750	3.626	3.716	3.846

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.83% +0.06%

5.99%

6.85%

15 Yr. Fixed

6.32% +0.01%

5.55%

6.34%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.91% +0.01%

6.1%

6.92%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 31, 2026

Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

Fri, Jul 31, 2026 1:36PM

To be fair, mortgage rates haven’t been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today’s 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd. Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today’s bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning’s Employment Cost Index, but the bigger iss… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.83%	+0.06	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.32%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.34%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.91%	+0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.37%	+0.04	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.36%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/31

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.66%	+0.08	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.04%	+0.08	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/30

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.76%	+0.07	0.69
15 Yr. Fixed	6.15%	+0.11	0.84
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.70%	+0.26	0.52
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/29

UMBS 30YR 5.5

98.95 -0.35

98.95

101.64

UMBS 30YR 6.0

101.12 -0.22

101.05

102.75

10 YR Treasury

4.736 +0.062

3.948

4.736

Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling

Fri, Jul 31, 2026 9:09AM

Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn’t appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes does). Now… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 5.0	96.48	-0.41
UMBS 5.5	98.95	-0.35
UMBS 6.0	101.12	-0.22
GNMA 5.0	96.78	-0.48
GNMA 5.5	99.39	-0.36
GNMA 6.0	101.67	-0.13
Pricing as of: 7/31 2:06PM EST