“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 September Coupon is down -14 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Rosie the Riveter: Both Manufacturing and Services were in expansionary territory in the Prelim August S&P PMIs. Manufacturing PMI was 53.2 versus estimates of 53.9 and Services PMI were 56.8 versus estimates of 54.0.

Texas Tea, Black Gold: WTI is up only 11 cents and remains right near $87.

Interest rates ending the week higher than the prior week, the key this week was Sec of Treasury Bessent announcing on Wednesday Treasury will double its buybacks of 10s and 30s starting on September 9th and going thru November 4th. The reaction sent yields lower on Wednesday in a knee jerk reaction, Thursday rates increased and today more increases. The 10 year and mortgage rates the highest this month.

The issue is the debt; our readers know we have talked about off and on for months, beside inflation it’s going to keep interest rates higher than they would otherwise be. The same with investors and traders; off again on again periodically over the last 9 months but quickly ignoring the debt when more interesting news hit. The July deficit at $432B, $100B more than thought brought the concern to the front table. Now investors are increasing inflation expectations; inflation data remains high, employment so-so. Fed officials talking rate increases, after Bessent’s failure to push rates lower increasing the inflation outlooks.

Next Friday Kevin Warsh will address the Global Economic Forum at Jackson Hole, WY. Before he speaks inflation data will hit next Wednesday, July PCE.

Next week’s calendar: Tuesday July Case/Shiller home price index, August consumer confidence index, July new home sales, 2 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, July personal income and spending, July PCE inflation, Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders, 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, 7 year note auction. Friday Jackson Hole with Kevin Warsh, August Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, August final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note yield +4 bps, the 2 year note +6 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -24 bps. The DJIA -405, NASDAQ -549, S&P -112. Gold +$240.00, crude oil +$4.52. The dollar index declined 0.82, this week’s big winner in terms of movement, bitcoin increased 14,341.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.74% +4 bp

5 year note: 4.43% +4 bp

2 year note: 4.24% +4 bp

30 year bond: 5.27% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.22 -13 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.11 -19 bp (-13 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.41 -11 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 159.01 -0.5 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1681 +$0.0002

Dollar Index: 98.83 -0.07

Gold: $4,673.90 +$102.50

Bitcoin: 77,200 +4573

Crude Oil: $86.80 -$0.03

DJIA: 53,328 +518

NASDAQ: 26,180 +113

S&P 500: 7674 +33

SOFR Data 08/21: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64319, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63920, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66017, INDEX: 1.25565902

 

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,995.19	17.98	0.45%	3.73	32.28%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	151,611.90	690.10	0.46%	4.81	35.36%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,090.19	25.82	0.51%	4.10	30.79%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted		Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1679		0.00	0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	158.9500		0.10	0.06%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3644		0.00	0.10%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.7171		0.01	0.80%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3760		0.00	0.22%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8012		0.00	0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN		16.9165	0.04	0.23%	4:59 P

 

USD-CZK	20.6436	0.02	0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	25.7957	0.00	0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.6919	0.01	0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	310.4600	1.75	0.56%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	82.9021	0.01	0.01%	3:30 PM

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% +0.01% 5.99% 6.85% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.61% +0.31% 5.55% 6.61% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.01% 6.1% 6.92%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 21, 2026

Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher Fri, Aug 21, 2026 2:35PM For all practical purposes, Friday’s mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday’s, but if we’re splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed.  While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury’s bond buyback program, today’s bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday’s announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday’s market reaction as ‘overdone.’  The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant comme… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.61% +0.31 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.33% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.36% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.35% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/21   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.65% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.95% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/20   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% 0.00 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.08% -0.02 0.82 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.71% +0.03 0.48 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/19

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.11 -0.15 98.89 101.64 UMBS 30YR 6.0 101.23 -0.10 101.05 102.75 10 YR Treasury 4.739 +0.038 3.948 4.739

Summertime Data-Free Friday Mystery Box Fri, Aug 21, 2026 9:29AM Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly random events. If no big players have big intentions, they can fizzle sideways. But due to lower participation, if big trades come through, they can have a bigger impa… (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 96.62 -0.23 UMBS 5.5 99.11 -0.15 UMBS 6.0 101.23 -0.10 GNMA 5.0 96.93 -0.26 GNMA 5.5 99.33 -0.21 GNMA 6.0 101.37 -0.13 Pricing as of: 8/21 2:56PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.234 +0.040 5 YR Treasury 4.426 +0.040 7 YR Treasury 4.570 +0.033 10 YR Treasury 4.739 +0.038 30 YR Treasury 5.279 +0.031 Pricing as of: 8/21 2:56PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	1.12%	1.88%	5.62%	22.62%	47.76%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL