“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
Market Wrap-up
Inflation Nation: The front end of inflation (PPI) was awful, will the backend (CPI) be the same? Will companies “absorb” the pricing increases or will it be passed on to the consumer? That is what we will find out in today’s CPI release. The August Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.4% on a MOM basis which is 4x the pace of July. Core (ex food and energy) is expected to rise a more moderate 0.2% which matches July’s pace.
Consumer Sentiment: We will get the preliminary September UofM Consumer Sentiment today and it is expected remain in the low 50’s.
August CPI slightly higher on the month/month core inflation, it increased from +0.2% in July to 0.3%, otherwise the estimates were in line with expectations that were unchanged from July and well above what the Fed wants. No decline cements the Fed will increase the FF rate at the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, what Fed Chair Warsh will say at his press conference is key looking forward.
Interest rates started today fractionally better but this afternoon more treasury selling increased sending rates higher and MBS prices down setting off lender re-pricing.
This afternoon Treasury released the budget for August, -$166.8B against some estimates between -$250B and -$404B. Spending for fiscal 2026 to date totaled $6.81 trillion, up 3%, while revenues were $4.85 trillion, also 3% higher on an adjusted basis from 2025. The average rate for marketable treasuries climbed to 3.48% as of the end of August, the department’s data show. That’s more than 2 percentage points higher than five years prior, and the figure is set to keep climbing as lower-yielding securities mature and the Treasury must refinance at higher cost.
We have said it many times here, interest rates are not likely to fall as long as the debt continues to increase, and it will continue to increase. There is no appetite in Washington to reign in spending.
Next week’s calendar: nothing on Monday. Tuesday the FOMC meeting starts, September Empire State manufacturing index. Wednesday FOMC and Warsh, weekly MBA mortgage applications, August retail sales, August import and export prices, Sept NAHB housing market index. Thursday August housing starts and permits, August pending home sales, weekly jobless claims. Friday August industrial production and capacity utilization.
I hate to be correct about the long-term outlook; interest rates are not likely to decline in any significant way. For months we have said the best that could be expected, 30 year mortgage rates would not fall below 6.5%; compared to where we are now that looks very optimistic. This week, the worst week for interest rates this year.
This Week: 10 year note +20 bp, the 2 year note +25 bp, MBS price -120 bp. The DJIA -841, NASDQ -164, S& -61. Gold -$95.00, crude oil +$9.18. The dollar index unchanged. Bitcoin -2,382.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.98% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.79% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.63% +5 bp
30 year bond: 5.35% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.82 -16 bp (-28 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 9.35 -18 bp (-35 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.20 -20 bp (-32 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 153.71 -0.72 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1596 -$0.0015
Dollar Index: 99.12 +0.07
Gold: $4,389.10 -$18.50
Bitcoin: 77,276 +161
Crude Oil: $100.57 -$1.91
DJIA: 52,573 +509
NASDAQ: 26,333 +251
S&P 500: 7657 +66
SOFR Data 09/11: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64850, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64761, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65847, INDEX: 1.25833474
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
4,139.25 | 30.44 | 0.74% | 2.24 | 44.94% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
155,090.30 | 792.60 | 0.51% | 1.08 | 44.83% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,231.67 | 33.45 | 0.64% | 1.10 | 40.81% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1599 | 0.00 | 0.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
153.6100 | 0.81 | 0.52% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3524 | 0.00 | 0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7169 | 0.00 | 0.17% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3871 | 0.00 | 0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8165 | 0.00 | 0.46% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.8947 | 0.01 | 0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.9730 | 0.03 | 0.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7277 | 0.00 | 0.06% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
313.5100 | 1.35 | 0.43% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
84.2558 | 0.16 | 0.19% | 3:44 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
16.9675 | 0.02 | 0.12% | 4:59 PM |
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